This week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It added weight and area to both US wheat and corn crops. The increasing supply of these crops triggered a wave of selling and futures prices went back down to early June levels.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
As harvest gets closer, attention is no doubt turning to pre-harvest management of crops. In particular, desiccation using glyphosate is one of the key considerations at this time. Some of you may have already completed desiccation on certain crops but for those who are yet to start, there are considerations to bear in mind.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness. The USDA now estimates that US farmers have planted 94.1 million acres of corn - up two million tonnes on its previous estimate - and that they will be able to harvest 86.3 million acres, which is up 9% on last year. This, combined with its estimated yield, would see the US corn crop at 10 million tonnes higher than the estimate made in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published in June, which was set at 387.75 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing executive, Faye Lee.
The week started with news that the Wagner Group's attempted coup against the Russian government had failed. In addition, Sterling has weakened against the Euro over the past week while it has strengthened against the US dollar.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
From early 2023, speculative funds had built near record short positions in agriculture futures markets. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market alone received over 120,000 contracts which is the equivalent of over 16 million tonnes. This process helped wheat prices decrease to multi-month lows at the end of May, but the current month has seen a price recovery.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published revisions to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report late last Friday afternoon. There was a notable jump in its world wheat production estimate, which it now sees rising to over 800 million tonnes. This is 10.4 million tonnes up on last month and 12 million tonnes up on last year. It came as a surprise to many that the USDA did not cut production estimates for areas where adverse weather may reduce output potential. For example, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently cut its country's production potential by a third on last year's figure to 26.2 million tonnes due to the expected negative impact on yields from the El Nino weather.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
For most of this week wheat values have remained on the defensive with London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Marche A Terme International de France (MATIF) all falling to their lowest point in over a year. Without much bullish news traders continued to add to their short positions after the small bounce in prices last week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia's agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated 'good/excellent' and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six points ahead of the five-year average.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
'Versatility' has become 'the norm' for many people across the globe following the many and varied extreme events of the past four years. More specifically within UK agriculture, there have been the challenging unseasonable weather patterns during autumn and spring. These have affected growers' annual cropping plans, key agronomic timings and fertiliser applications.
Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world's 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Last week's wheat price gains were quickly lost this week as the weight of old crop stocks, demand concerns and improving 2023 production prospects motivated selling interest. Despite uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor deal and increased hostility from Russia towards Ukraine, eastern EU states are heavy with previously imported Ukrainian supplies.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
World wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week, Canada's national statistical office, Statistics Canada (StatsCan), published its first look at 2023 Canadian crop potential and farmer planting intentions. Canadian farmers are set to increase their wheat area by around 6% on last year, to 27 million acres. If realised, this would be the largest drilled area since 2001. This potential boost to global supplies exceeded trade expectations and added to the market price negativity.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Wheat futures markets rose sharply earlier this week, with traders concerned over the flow of grain from the Black Sea. Prices increased by around 6%, with Russia casting doubt on its renewal of the Ukraine Black Sea export deal next month. Subject to the terms of the deal, vessels entering or exiting the Ukrainian Black Sea must be inspected. However, Russia has blocked inspections as vessels passed through Turkish waters for a second day, which has prompted Ukraine to say that the export deal is at danger of collapse. Russia warned that prospects of an extension to the deal will be low once its previous 60-day extension ends in the middle of May unless certain criteria are met in respect to Western sanctions.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
This week, London wheat futures fell to their lowest since the beginning of 2022. Lower-than-expected use in both the animal feed and bioethanol sectors has created a heavy domestic balance sheet. This, combined with scarce export opportunity, has put pressure on prices and led to a notable discount on new crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
London wheat futures fell lower again this week, with old crop prices falling close to multi-month lows, the lowest since the 22nd of March. Selling was encouraged by lower world markets and what is likely to be a significant UK carry over stock from this season into next.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat futures markets continued to rally until mid-week, making impressive gains from last week's multi-month lows. The London wheat market added £19/t which encouraged further farmer selling, but with limited interest in physical wheat buying, domestic prices subsequently dropped again towards the end of the week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by Lucinda Redgate.
Last weekend the Black Sea export corridor deal was renewed. Despite demands from Ukraine for a minimum extension of 120 days, all parties ultimately agreed to Russia's proposal of a maximum of 60 days. Russia said an extension of the deal beyond mid-May will depend on the removal of some western sanctions.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat markets have endured a volatile week's trading with focus on the talks between representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the UN as they discussed the renewal of the Black Sea export deal.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets continued to fall this week and have now lost 14% of their value since the end of 2022. The primary drivers for the market negativity are twofold. Firstly, the ongoing competition from cheap Russian wheat exports following Russia's record 2022 wheat crop; and secondly, a strong belief the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN will renew at the end of next week. If this is the case, Ukraine will continue to ship cheaply offered wheat, corn and other grains on world markets. This makes it likely the US, the EU and other major exporters will be left with burdensome year end stocks.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
