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The possibility that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed has influenced markets this week. However, whether this renewal will be realised remains in question. President Putin has reportedly commented that a recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, was a result of weapons that were smuggled via the corridor and therefore he is unsure whether a renewal of the agreement is in the best interests of Russia.

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Wheat futures prices surged to a three-month high on Monday. Speculators and trade shorts raced for cover due to the Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in many cities across Ukraine, fearful of an escalation of the conflict and an interruption to exports from the Black Sea. However, markets subsequently eased lower as shipments continued. Comments in the media that Russia may cancel an export quota also triggered selling, although with a record 150 million tonne grain crop - 100 million tonnes of which is wheat – this hardly suggests any restriction for exports is necessary.

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Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its final 2022 US wheat production estimate and surprised markets by cutting over 130 million bushels from its September estimate, which was in line with average trade expectations. The USDA sees the crop down to 1,650 million bushels; the equivalent of 44.9 million tonnes. This reduction in the US wheat production estimate coupled with lower-than-expected corn and wheat stocks in the US (as of 1^st September) saw futures prices make sharp gains. The rally continued into the beginning of this week.

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World wheat markets continued to rise this week, driven higher by heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Threats to the longevity of the safe Black Sea export corridor amidst the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the Kremlin has encouraged further short covering and speculative buying of wheat futures. Over 210 vessels carrying agricultural produce have now left Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the UN-brokered deal was signed with Russia, but there is increasing doubt the deal will extend beyond the expiry of the initial agreement in November.

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London wheat futures rallied to their highest point since the 11^thJuly this week as a result of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin said he was mobilising 300,000 additional reserves and announced other activity that has concerned markets. The comments from Putin saw Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rise by over 7% as the shorts covered their positions fearing disruption to essential Ukrainian agricultural produce exports.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September updates to the World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Monday afternoon, which helped wheat futures prices rally to a two-month high mid-week. However, lower corn production estimates currently provide the main price driver for wheat.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell

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Wheat futures moved sharply higher earlier this week, although prices remained in the trading range that has prevailed for the past two months. Traders reacted to lower corn production estimates for both the US and EU, the result of prolonged dry and hot weather conditions that have proved damaging for yield potential.

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Wheat prices moved higher early in the week in response to strong gains in US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, which rose to a two-month high. Corn futures rose in reaction to disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour as it progressed through the main corn-producing states. Iowa is the world's number one corn producer, yet yields from Western Iowa were reported at 181.12 bu/ac, which has fallen from 183.96 bu/ac last year and is lower than the three-year average of 183.47 bu/ac.

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London wheat futures fell to their lowest level for almost five months this week following the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published late last Friday afternoon. The USDA increased its estimate for world wheat production by eight million tonnes on last month's estimate to a new world total of 779.6 million tonnes. If realised, this will be a record.

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By the 7^th August, EU wheat exports reached 2.49 million tonnes; this is marginally ahead of last year. However, Brussels state the data is incomplete and private analysts see shipments 30% ahead of last year. French shipments alone are thought to be at least half a million tonnes understated.  . Major world wheat importers have all sourced a significant proportion of their purchases from freely available EU supplies due to the continued challenges and restrictions on Ukrainian and Russian origins.

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One grain ship leaving a Ukrainian Black Sea port was sufficient for world wheat futures markets to come under notable selling pressure this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat fell to a six-month low.

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This week, the world's wheat futures markets have recovered all the losses they took last Friday. Prices then fell sharply due to Russia and Ukraine signing a deal with Turkey and the United Nations (UN). The deal set out to ship trapped wheat and other grains and oilseeds from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.  However, the market is now reacting to the reality that shipping through these ports will, for some time, be a slow process as there are challenges in securing the resources needed to resume operations whilst the hostilities with Russia continue.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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After weeks of talks and negotiations, Turkish officials said that a deal to allow safe Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports would be signed at a ceremony in Istanbul on Friday 22^nd July 2022. Russia and Ukraine are reported to have reached agreement with the UN and Turkey although at the time of writing there has been no official confirmation from either Russia or Ukraine and the details of the agreement have not been released.

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On Tuesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July updates to its World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report. Revisions were relatively mild but continued long liquidation on futures markets was encouraged by increases to production estimates and stocks for US wheat and corn, as well as cuts to world demand figures for each commodity resulting in a higher stock than the previous month.

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While the industry appears to have well and truly embarked on the transition into a 'new era' now, a level of uncertainty remains around the new funding opportunities and ongoing changes to agri-environment schemes.

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The economics of growing oilseed rape have fundamentally changed over the last few years. Throughout this period, we have seen its value move from approximately £320/t in harvest 2020, to £440/t in 2021, to the heights of 2022 of £900/t. Currently, this has come back to £550/t for harvest. The crop has never been so valuable.

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World wheat futures have fallen sharply this week, as highlighted by the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), for which wheat values declined almost 9.5% since last Friday's close. These losses have been driven by fears of demand destruction in light of failing economies, unaffordable high commodity prices and grain that remains trapped in Ukraine.

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Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report but it made few changes to the previous month's wheat and corn world balance sheets. However, markets rallied from the low levels of trading before the report, where traders had squared long positions in case of bearish data.

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Recent market weakness has been driven by expectations that a solution will be found for releasing trapped Ukrainian grain for shipment through Black Sea ports. This week, meetings took place in Turkey with Russian officials to secure safe routes for grain exports. Russia said that Ukraine must demine approaches to ports and that Russian forces would check ships entering Ukrainian ports which could then load grain and proceed to international waters.

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Wheat futures markets have again been volatile this week and have fallen sharply with losses extending by over 10% from the record highs reached earlier this month. Long liquidation and speculative selling gathered pace in response to newswire reports that Russia would provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine. Analysts estimate that over 21 million tonnes of grain will be trapped in Ukraine by the end of this season due to the Russian navy blockade of the country's Black Sea ports. The loss of Ukrainian grain supplies to the world's major importers has been the primary wheat price driver since the Russian invasion in February and has been the main element contributing to the prevailing global food crisis.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.