WHEAT

• Wheat prices higher

Last week, the London wheat futures prices dropped to a new contract low, under pressure from over supply and weak demand. However, turmoil for the world’s financial markets, triggered by the introduction of President Trump’s tariffs on imported goods to the US, brought changing fortunes for the wheat market.  

Despite the backdrop of near record short positions held by managed money traders in the world futures markets, a ‘risk off’ approach has led to a spell of short covering, lifting wheat prices in the process.  

The standing of UK wheat markets in particular was further helped by a notable fall in the value of sterling which, since the beginning of the month, fell by over 3.5% against the euro. This leaves imports more expensive and potential exports more competitive. In trading on Tuesday 8th April, new crop London wheat traded £12.50/t above the previous week’s contract low and presented more attractive selling opportunities, albeit briefly. 

• Challenging weather for key production areas

Both heavy rain and flooding in some winter wheat crop areas of the US, as well as fears in other states where crop damage due to freezing temperatures was prominent, triggered some futures short covering.

The first US weekly national winter wheat condition ratings that were published this year showed some deterioration coming in at 48% good/excellent, although this was just above the trade estimates of 47%. The last report published in November was at 55% good/excellent and was 56% a year ago.

Spring wheat planting is just underway at 3% complete, the same as last year. Corn is just 2% complete in line with the usual expectations, however, there have been reports of potential wheat crop damage in Russia. Stavropol is the third largest wheat producing region, having accounted for around 8% of Russia’s 82.6 million tonnes in 2024. This year the region endured severe hailstorms, damaging crops after early spring frosts, and analysts are said to be assessing losses. Heavy snowfall was also predicted to impact many other regions this week. The largest wheat region, Krasnodar, saw temperatures of 20⁰c in March and is now expecting frosts this week.

Russia’s Agriculture Minister, Oksana Lut, recently indicated that non-tariff measures could be considered if wheat production drops below expected levels in the 2025/26 marketing year. While, Minister Lut has not provided extensive public elaboration on the specifics, the mention of non-tariff measures suggests potential restrictions like export quotas or other regulatory actions to manage supply, particularly in response to concerns about a smaller crop due to adverse weather conditions and reduced planting. This aligns with ongoing efforts to balance domestic food security and export commitments amid forecasts of a challenging harvest.

• Improving EU export performance

The EU weekly wheat exports up to 6th April jumped by a sizeable 681,000 tonnes, one of the biggest weekly performances of the season. The cumulative at 16.365 million tonnes still compares poorly with last year’s 24.959 million tonnes. However, data remains incomplete as we can see from UK exports, which at 1.092 million tonnes are around half a million behind the actual figures from UK Customs data.

Traditional French wheat importer Algeria is climbing the ladder of receivers, now ahead of the UK and third overall with 1.363 million tonnes. Morocco sits second highest at 2.192 million tonnes, with Nigeria out-front with 2.329 million tonnes. Romania is the leading EU wheat shipper at 4.545 million tonnes, leaving traditional primary EU wheat exporter France behind at 1.786 million tonnes. French wheat exporters have been encouraged by recent sales to Morocco and there are more promising prospects for future sales to Algeria.

BARLEY

• Feed continues to see nearby support

Demand for old crop feed barley remains primarily in the nearby, continuing to be supported by export demand and slow farmer selling. There will likely be at least some demand further forward with various consumers making enquiries in the market, although very few are particularly active or committing to buying late season barley today. Consumers are generally well covered on old crop and aren’t in a hurry to cover their remaining demand. Questions marks over the actual volume of this further demand will remain, especially with the prospect of earlier turnouts if recent weather conditions sustain.

• Headwinds remain for malting demand as markets watch the weather

A vintage malting barley crop is still struggling to find any old crop outlet any earlier than limited demand in July. This is while new crop isn’t fairing much better, where there is still no increase in demand. For now, many are standing and watching geopolitical and weather events to see how they pan out.

Spring drilling has gone as well as it could have gone at this point, both in the UK and in the EU. Crop establishment has been strong, however, these crops will now be looking for much needed rainfall that has been absent from recent weather and is still largely missing in current forecasts. As a result, the market will be watching weather reports intently for the foreseeable.

OILSEED RAPE

Rapeseed markets have plateaued this week amidst increasing global tariff escalation driven by US President Donald Trump. Foreign exchange markets have been the main driver this week, with the euro considerably stronger against the dollar and sterling much weaker against the euro, which has given some short-term benefits to UK ex-farm prices. European non-genetically modified rapeseed remains difficult to find, leading to high premiums over futures being paid as crushers try to cover their remaining requirements for the year.

Conditions for crop ‘25 have been suffering a little in Europe this week, with reports of frost damage on the current flowering crop possibly leading to negative yields. The discount to new crop would suggest that traders either aren’t worried about this for now, or are too distracted negotiating the current impacts of tariffs.

PULSES

• Feed beans

There has been very little change to the bean market this week, although beans have started to discount themselves slightly as expected.

Domestic bean homes have finished buying up until the period from June to July. Now that homes are full, it appears that market shorts have also been filled in. Despite this, there continues to be a steady supply.

The pulses export market remains quiet, with the indication being that there are more vessels to do, but buyers are not willing to put a firm bid out today. This has been further affected by the lack of demand from the fish food industry. Those that indicate any kind of value are still some ways from where UK beans would be offered.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

Since last week's report, we have seen a huge increase in financial market turmoil, with President Trump continuing to focus on tariffs and existing trade deals. This has led to widespread contagion on money markets and trade flows around the world being redrawn going forward.  Agricultural commodities will not escape the fallout to come, and indeed volatility within the world market is never far away.  Ironically, Russia seems to be the main benefactor, especially into the US.

India has tendered for 1.5 million tonnes of urea, a nutrient of which they have plenty to offer. Counter tenders will now progress, and, given the long period of delivery, it is thought they will achieve their tonnage goals this time round.  This has made the market firm slightly and indeed put a floor on it for the time being.  Euro to dollar exchange rates will have an influence on costs into the UK, but no new cargoes are planned for usage. European gas values have stayed firm considering the calm warm weather into spring. Energy outages in Egypt have also curtailed production, and this is something that will repeatedly impact production as we near summer.

One consolation is that ammonia costs are slightly favouring AN production, but it is worth stressing that availability will remain very tight whilst the usage period continues. Add to that the extra hectares coming back into production from Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) areas and the Urea Stewardship Scheme now active, and we have more buyers chasing fewer tonnes.

As for next season’s market ideas, uncertainty and volatility looks set to remain with a number of new factors that now need to be considered. Risk management control will be key for the next 12 months, while the supply chain adapts yet again to new global conditions. Frontier’s Flexi N scheme helps growers navigate volatility, offering flexible delivery terms and favourable payment timing to suit cash flow. More information is available on our website.

• Liquid/UAN

As warm, dry conditions persist across the UK, growers are encouraged to include a urease inhibitor, such as Limus® Perform, within all further UAN applications. The Agricultural Development Advisory Service (ADAS) trials results show that the inclusion of Limus® Perform within a UAN programme increases yield in winter wheat by 0.23 t/ha, and in England ensures growers are compliant with the Urea Stewardship Scheme. As UAN applications continue without interruption due to the settled weather, it is recommended that growers with on-farm tank capacity request delivery at the earliest opportunity as Easter approaches, whether this be nitrogen, NS, or NPK products. At present, pricing across all grades stays unchanged and consistently competitive against solid systems. Suppliers have an eye on the urea market in particular, as on-farm demand will increase for foliar urea products in the coming months. Until then, pricing varies regionally.

• PKs/straights

Phosphate and potash values have continued to firm on tight supplies and look likely to stay on that path for the time being as suppliers delay fresh offers post-spring in order to digest the tariff news. More importantly, supplies into the UK of both MOP and DAP continue to be delayed and are therefore slowing deliveries nationwide. The stock situation should improve over the next 14 to 21 days, allowing for current order books to be delivered by late April into early May.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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