WHEAT 

• UK wheat hits new low 

 Early this week, world futures markets were lower again. The London market followed the trend and dropped to a new contract low, with the 2025 wheat harvest imminent whilst domestic supply chains remain full of old crop. The lower prices attracted consumer buyers and with farmers keeping the selling door closed at low-price levels, London wheat subsequently lifted £5 from the low as frustrated buyers looked for liquidity. 

With the prospects for one of the earliest ever starts to the UK wheat harvest, yield is key for the next move on London wheat futures. If other wheat origins remain unchanged, poor UK yields are likely to help keep the domestic balance sheet tight and prices maintain their slight discount to imported supplies. However, a stronger yield, bearing in mind the surprisingly decent results for winter barley, would swell the UK balance sheet and cause it to oversupply, likely meaning a need to eventually secure export sales. That means lower prices relative other origins. Given the weather outlook, we won’t need to wait too much longer to see how that yield looks. 

• Russian production key 

Questions over Russian wheat production in recent days was seemingly put to bed as analysts at SovEcon increased their Russian wheat export estimate for 2025-26 by 2.1 million tonnes to a total of 42.9 million tonnes. This estimate is 825,000 tonnes for each week of the season and represents strong competition for the other major world wheat exporters.  

Despite very low yields reported in the Rostov region of Russia, which was significantly impacted by drought, overall wheat production for the world’s leading exporter is still expected to be strong. The Russian Agricultural Minister, Oksana Lut, reiterated that a total wheat crop of 90 million tonnes was still expected. The Russian government dropped the export tax to zero, which has been in place since 2021 and was designed to protect domestic prices and ensure sufficient supply. The cancelled export tax should put more money into farmers pockets and make them more ready sellers, providing them more returns from wheat sales and higher interest on their cash deposits. 

Russian and Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat is offered to Egypt at $235 to $237, including freight costs around $15 under French values. The sterling equivalent is less than £173, with London November ‘25 feed wheat futures trading at £177. 

• EU 2024-25 wheat exports down 35% 

Weak international demand coupled with strong Black Sea competition has left EU wheat exporters struggling all season. This has proven a notable bearish feature. The euro’s strength in recent weeks in foreign exchange markets has added to the challenges securing trade. The end of season official EU wheat exports up to 30th June were 20.33 million tonnes down; 35% down on the year. The EU commission said some data was missing but the consequence of this is a higher carry out stock with a 2025 crop coming, which is expected to be up by over 17 million tonnes on the year. 

Romania was the largest EU wheat exporter, shipping 5.56 million tonnes, over double that of Germany in second place. Traditional leading EU wheat exporter France is now sixth on the list, with just 2.05 million tonnes shipped, although French data is incomplete. 

Nigeria was the leading destination for EU wheat, taking 2.8 million tonnes, followed by Morocco with 2.65 million tonnes shipped and Algeria at 1.86 million tonnes. The UK is forth on the list with 1.25 million tonnes. 

EU wheat imports totalled to 7.44 million tonnes, with 4.49 million tonnes coming from Ukraine. Ukraine will be limited to 1.3 million tonnes tariff-free in 2025-26. 

BARLEY 

Significant progress has been made in harvesting barley this week. Generally, yields are above pre-harvest expectations, with the South of England looking to be the pick of areas harvested to date. Specific weights are very good in all geographies. UK feed barley remains uncompetitive on the export market and forward domestic demand is muted.  

Malting barley values have come under significant pressure throughout Europe this week. The French harvest continues to progress, with quality and yields reported as better than market predictions. English winter malting barley crops are also generally good, with good screening results and mostly usable nitrogen content. With challenges impacting demand of both the brewing and distilling sectors, a higher carrying in stock of malting barley than normal, and European new crop supplies to date looking promising, buyers are understandably relaxed. 

OILSEEDS 

Rapeseed harvest is now well underway in Europe, with a few early reports from the UK starting to roll in. Most countries across the continent are seeing improvements in crop ratings, with Romania looking to produce a record crop of 2 million tonnes. The crop in Romania should help to offset the deficit elsewhere in the Black Sea - mainly Ukraine - where the crop is smaller due to a lower planted area and more challenging growing season.   

Further afield in Canada, plantings have come in lower than expected. A strong demand for vegetable oils in the US has given some strength to Canadian canola markets, which has not been reciprocated in European markets. It is unlikely the 1 million tonnes of rapeseed that Europe imported from Canada will be repeated this year for that reason.   

Early harvest reports in the UK have been variable, so we await more data before taking a strong view on quality and yields. However, Northern France, which is often a good barometer for UK crops, has been performing well.   

The typical harvest pressure and the completion of the previous season has been pushing markets lower in the last week, in combination with commercial funds reducing the size of their long position. The key factor for this market going forwards is the crop sizes in Europe, Australia and Canada.    

PULSES 

The continuous hot and dry weather has caused some localised issues for beans, with reports of crops turning brown and aborting pods due to heat pressure. However, the overall crop outlook is very good with some great looking winter bean fields. The timely rain over the weekend may hinder the combining of earlier commodities but will have benefited the beans greatly.  

We continue to see a lack of activity for new crop trading. Despite wheat futures taking a downwards trend last week, beans are still considered too expensive for the domestic market. Beans are currently around £30/t more expensive than domestic rape meal and therefore won’t feature in the ration. There were hopes that the wheat futures would have helped trade beans on a FOB market, but UK beans are still around £7 to £8/t too expensive against the Baltic offer. 

The old crop market has fallen around £2/t since last reported, bringing the inverse between old to new in. There are the odd shorts still to fill in for the August position, but with the general feeling that harvest will come earlier, there isn’t a pressure to fill these. 

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN   

Urea production is now up and running in Egypt, albeit at 80% production due to focus on domestic energy use. Urea trade in that area has already moved up following continued demand. The market remained quiet for a few days up until the final offers for the Indian tender were released. There were over 3 million tonnes tendered, and whilst this is a significant figure, the actual requirement is nearer 2 million tonnes, and the final physical offered volume is subject to confirmation. The price per tonne is circa $30 above the last levels offered within that region and $100 over the last tender. This has already caused some suppliers in other key trading areas to withdraw, although paper trades are already stepping up. This will therefore cause a further firming for those in EU and the UK still to purchase urea. 

In the ammonia market, there have been numerous reports of loading issues with a cargo of ammonia. This is now the sixth Russian linked tanker that has suffered challenges since the start of 2025, with some non-Russian media outlets reporting explosions and liquid ammonia spills. As some of this ammonia is destined for European manufacturers, it will likely put additional pressure on an already tightly-supplied AN market. Elsewhere on ammonia, CF UK Industries has continued its commitment to UK ammonium nitrate supply, with another vessel of ammonia arriving at its Billingham plant to support the production of existing order contracts. 

There have been more import tariff announcements from the USA, but these aren’t likely to impact global fertiliser supply chains, given the latest countries impacted by tariff extension or changes only account for 2% of USA urea imports. 

• Liquid  

UK oilseed rape growers are now arranging deliveries of nitrogen and phosphate product to support crop establishment. As well as being very competitive to solid equivalents, they also provide 100% water soluble nutrition immediately ready for crop uptake. Simultaneously, new users of liquid fertiliser on grassland continue to see the benefits of having nutrients in a solution ready available form to support rapid regrowth, especially given a more difficult grass growing conditions over the last month. 

Liquid suppliers vary in their willingness to price nitrogen sulphur options, with some reported to have had extended periods out of the market. This is likely due to the more recent Middle Eastern tension and concerns over future costs of UAN production. 

Applications of urea polymers such as Nutrino Pro are now happening on growing maize crops to support cob fill and on potatoes to manage and support canopy growth and duration. The recent upward movements in urea pricing have not impacted UK price of these materials but will likely impact production costs for spring 2025 usage.  

• PKs/Straights  

Phosphate fertiliser purchasing has ramped up with the requirements for oilseed rape establishment, but also due to the rising DAP costs and concerns around supply into the UK. The latter has caught the attention of larger DAP buyers for spring 2026, prompting them to purchase a percentage for risk mitigation around their inputs. 

Positive news for buyers of fertiliser in the South and Southwest of the UK is the opening of an additional blending facility at Avonmouth, which will keep regional suppliers competitive and ultimately provide a better supply and service for growers. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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