WHEAT

• Wheat prices lower again 

Wheat markets are lower again this week as ample old crop stocks look set to be shortly compounded by a relatively trouble-free 2025 Northern Hemisphere crop. Both Paris and London wheat futures struck new contract lows this week. Despite a decline for French wheat condition down one point on the week to 69% good/excellent, this is still ahead of last year’s poor crop which was 62% good/excellent at this point.  

Meanwhile, officials in Romania said the country would produce a record wheat crop of between 14 and 15 million tonnes following ideal spring growing conditions, compared to just 9.29 million tonnes last year. Romania will no doubt be a keen exporter through its Black Sea port of Constanta, delivering a bearish blow for the market. 

• Mixed reports for Russia 

Although its spring crops are barely planted, there was an increased Russian wheat production estimate this week from analysts at SovEcon, adding 1.8 million tonnes to their previous estimate up to 82.8 million tonnes. This, in effect, boosts further the scale of their exportable surplus. However, not everything in the garden is rosy.  

The primary grain growing region in Russia, Rostov, declared a state of agricultural emergency in some of its drought hit areas, allowing farmers to claim compensation for their crop losses. Spring frosts were also reported as damaging. Despite this, the Russian deputy prime minister for agriculture, Dmitry Nikolayevich Patrushev, said that Russia’s 2025 grain harvest would reach 135 million tonnes, up from 130 million tonnes last year. Patrushev said 93% of winter crops sown on an area of 20 million hectares were in normal condition. The grain crop area includes the captured areas of Ukraine, which accounts for 4% of the total. 

The Ukrainian government lifted its minimum wheat sales price for exporters from $188 FOB last month up to $211 FOB. However, this move offers little support for current values. The sterling equivalent is around £156.50 per tonne loaded onto a vessel at port. This is around £20 under prevailing November 2025 London wheat futures. 

• US looking positive 

Managed money traders were buyers early in the week, hoping for an improved US trade outlook as President Trump met China’s President Xi. The talks had ‘a very positive conclusion’ and were followed by the announcement of extended future talks. US farmers will be hoping for tariff-free access for their crops into the Chinese market. If recent talk of wheat crop losses due to heat prove right, China could return to being a volume importer again and the US is likely to have plenty of wheat and corn to ship. 

The United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) published its weekly US crop progress report and highlighted a potential boost for production all round. Winter wheat jumped two points on the week to 54% good/excellent which compares with 47% last year. This is the best condition the crop has been in at this stage since 2019. Spring wheat was up three points to 53% good/excellent, although still down on last year 72%. Corn reached 97% planted bang on average.  

BARLEY

• Old crop prices fall as harvest looms

The attention on feed markets is starting to turn towards the impending new crop harvest, with new crop East Anglian feed barley due in good volumes in the next four to five weeks. The prospect of an early harvest and slow old crop buying interest in the market has drawn sellers at lower values than we’ve previously seen in a bid to clear stocks before new crop. East Anglian barley is hitting the market now at sub-£140 ex-farm, in contrast to southwest England where barley remains some £20 higher. Much like last week, our recommendation to growers in that area is to clear balances before markets shift from current old crop values to lower new crop values. In the Midlands and Yorkshire, where freight availability from East Anglia is more readily available, prices are under pressure on account of the cheaper supplies from the East.

• New crop feed under pressure amidst malting quality concerns

New crop barley remains under pressure. Improving weather patterns in the last two weeks, both in the UK and EU, are adding to the bearish sentiment filtering down from the wider grain markets. Malting demand remains slow, and concerns over possible quality issues are largely disregarded by a malting market that will be carrying a significant amount of good quality stocks from crop ‘24 already. Potential issues with malting qualities affect the feed markets however, with the belief that any yield loss in feed crops may well be offset by malting varieties moving as feed. Consumers are active in the new crop feed markets, although they are largely making enquiries and refreshing price ideas as they look to price barley into the ration. With the discount to wheat now £12-15, few are committing to buying large volumes of feed barley today, but up-and-down the UK consumers are taking small amounts of cover and pricing up to order where it suits. Farmers, once again, remain absent from the market amidst new crop prices falling once again. 

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed values strengthened over the past week, with MATIF November futures reaching highs of €495/t. The market found support from reports that China and the US had agreed on a plan to ease export tariffs, but no details have been released yet. Proposed measures would still require approval from President Trump and President Xi. Additional support came from crude oil prices climbing to an eight-week high.

In Canada, weather remains predominantly warm and dry as spring planting nears competition. However, very low soil moisture levels are raising concerns over yield potential, with new crop canola prices up 2% from last week as a result. Rain progressively building across the US could bring some relief to this. Europe and the Black Sea region continue to experience mostly dry conditions except for Poland and Northern Ukraine.

In the UK, crop conditions are generally good and set for an earlier harvest than usual. Harvest sellers remain focused on achieving £400/t ex farm. According to the latest Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimates, the UK’s rapeseed area is predicted to be 236,000 hectares, a 19% decline from 2024.

PULSES

• Feed beans 

Old crop beans have remained expensive against other protein sources, leading to disappointment as demand hasn’t increased. The indications are that there are no further exports to do, leaving the UK footprint relatively balanced. There are still some shorts in the market, but these will fill in easily with parcels left on-farm. 

There doesn’t appear to be a weather story for new crop beans. Everything is looking okay and that coupled with the continuing story of beans being expensive against other sources means buyers are happy to hold tight for now and are not feeling the need to take any cover. Today, beans are around £10/t too expensive to see any real demand.

• Human consumption beans 

It’s fair to say the UK has sold out of human consumption beans. However, there are buyers interested if anything becomes available at a reasonable premium. If you have anything left on     farm, please speak to your farm trader.  

Buyers are looking towards new crop human consumption beans. However, given that there is a risk in quality today, the UK premium is quite expensive in comparison to the Baltics. There will be a need for UK beans for Egypt from September to October, but not many tonnes are likely to trade ahead of harvest. 

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN/NS

Global urea markets remain firm while product is tight, with most producers largely allocated for June to July availability. The stability in the market is being supported with the imminent Indian tender. Once that has concluded (which is expected on 12th June) this will give an indication as to the direction of travel in terms of pricing for the later months. The UK urea market has seen a recent increases in values to reflect the tightness in supply and the imminent tender. Terms being offered to UK farmers are mostly available for August delivery onwards, which is the earliest likely arrival of vessels.

Last week saw the release of new season UK AN, with on-farm pricing values that attracted the opportunity to secure good quality AN for summer delivery. The levels of uptake from the farm gate on the initial offer were quickly consumed and those that did not take advantage of the summer delivery offer now await terms at new levels and delivery periods. As we have seen with European AN pricing, it is expected the UK market will see price increases on next offers and this is supported by the tightness of supply across Europe and the UK due to reports of curtailments on European production, along with EU tariffs and sanctions that will impact supply chains.

Nitrogen sulphur grades will also be affected by the same factors as the straight N market as mentioned above. Please speak to your Frontier contact for both high and low sulphur products available to suit your farming system.

• UAN

With new season UAN terms following within days of the AN market in the UK, growers have had the opportunity to secure their tank fill requirements in either the summer or autumn, delivery period in recent days. Growers are encouraged to review their on-farm tank capacity and their known requirements for crop ‘26 as volumes from these first offers are limited and competitive. These tank fill tonnes offer growers comparable pricing when costed against straight N and N/S solid programmes in the marketplace, along with the benefits of using a liquid system for those with the ability to utilise a hybrid system.

Whilst attention drifts to crop ‘26 with regards to fertiliser inputs, those with a requirement for a foliar product for application on milling wheat targeting protein uplift have access to unchanged values for products in either IBCs or bulk for prompt delivery. It is recommended growers to speak to their local Frontier contact to discuss the options available.

• Straights/PKs

Not only are we seeing the Indian tender impact the urea market, but it is also playing a part in a bullish outlook on potash. Prices in the UK remain stable for the time being, with a view to firm over the coming months on the back of the tender. Phosphate supply remains tight and, like the N markets, is being affected by EU tariffs and sanctions, keeping this market firm. It is worth discussing your PK requirements with your Frontier representative and look at the options available to you.

Polysulphate terms are available to growers for summer delivery; it is a good sulphur option to add to your programme if you are looking to decouple from your nitrogen products.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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