WHEAT

• No sign of recovery

Wheat markets have continued to be under pressure in recent days. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to new contract lows, as an improving US weather picture encouraged further selling. Widespread rainfall and more in the forecast is reducing the winter wheat area in drought and the crop condition is improving.

The national crop condition in the US is seen as good to excellent and gained 4 points on the week to 49%; now equal with last year and is 8 points ahead of the average.

Primary winter wheat producing state Kansas gained 6 points on the week to 47% good to excellent and is now 16 points ahead of last year and 14 points ahead of the average. Spring wheat planting is also encouraging, having reached 30% done compared to the 21% average.

CBOT wheat futures sit in line with five-year lows and consumers continue to sit on the sidelines.

• Mixed picture for the EU and Black Sea

For the European continent, the crop potential isn’t quite as positive, but there are no concerns sufficient at this stage to encourage speculative short covering. The French wheat crop condition shows no sign of improvement and edged 1 point lower last week to 74% good to excellent, but that is still up on the previous year’s 63%.

Cold weather in Ukraine has delayed spring planting and it is unclear whether nighttime freezing temperatures in Russia have been damaging for winter wheat. An extended dry period for Russia and Ukraine leaves soil moisture below levels seen in recent years in places, although rain and normal temperatures are in the medium range forecast.

Overall demand is lacking as consumers remain rooted on the sidelines looking for prices to fall further. French new crop wheat futures fell to their lowest since the early part of 2024.

• Contrasting exports

US wheat exports might have afforded CBOT wheat futures greater support than seen this week. Weekly wheat export inspections at 647, 000 tonnes were above the top end of trade estimates for the second consecutive week, and the highest for seven months. With the cumulative at 19.459 million tonnes, the pace is 15% up on last year and closing in on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) target of 22.32 million tonnes.

Russian wheat exports continue to run at a notably reduced rate compared to the previous year. April shipments are expected to reach 2.2 million tonnes, up on 1.9 million tonnes last year but less than half of last April’s 4.6 million tonnes. It is likely that Russian wheat exports will top 40 million tonnes, with three quarters of it having shipped before the end of last year. The fierce competition has left the EU shippers floundering and there are rumours of French wheat sales to Egypt, but these seem tenuous given a lack of ships present to load and the old crop Paris future dropping to new contract lows hardly illustrates improved demand. Weekly EU wheat export sales added just 300,000 tonnes, taking the cumulative to 17.476 million tonnes, now 9.2 million tonnes behind last year on official data, although there is a case to suggest official numbers are 1.5 million tonnes behind. Romania is the primary EU shipper at 4.782 million tonnes and Morocco now the primary receiver of EU wheat at 2.464 million tonnes. The UK sits fourth in the list.

BARLEY

The feed barley market this week is characterised by limited spot demand in many areas of the UK, at a time when – theoretically - a significant tonnage of barley is still to be traded. With harvest feed barley values a discount to old crop, there is no incentive for farmers, merchants or consumers to be carrying feed barley, so prices could be under pressure especially as the EU barley harvest starts to get closer.

Looking forward to new crop, the discount between feed wheat and feed barley has narrowed this week, with discounts shrinking from around £18-£20/t to circa £14-£15/t. While this makes feed barley look like a more attractive commodity to sell, it is important to note that as the discount between wheat and barley narrows it will reduce the demand for feed barley as compounders look to reformulate rations. The UK continues to be uncompetitive against current export values, so changes in demand for barley domestically need to be watched closely.

While the old crop malting barley continues to struggle with lack of demand and maltsters are well covered for the season, the new crop malting barley market throughout Europe has firmed this week, with widening malting premiums due to the recent dry weather in parts of the UK, Northern France and Scandinavia. While the weather will no doubt have the biggest impact on both yields and quality of malting barley - and subsequently the value - lethargic malt demand in both brewing and distilling sectors and significant carry in of ‘crop 24 malting barley throughout Europe will be bearish factors, regardless of any potential weather issues.

OILSEEDS

The focus in the rapeseed complex this week has been the May futures contract expiry which removes the closest reference point for traders to work out values in the old crop position. The focus going forward will be on old crop’s relationship to new crop, and whether it should remain at the £40+ premium it is at today or whether that should decrease, mainly due to how much seed is being carried over into the next year. It feels like there is still some crusher cover that is needed but that could evaporate quickly as final positions are filled in.

New crop rapeseed prospects remain good across Europe, with winterkill effects on flowering plants not quite as bad as first thought and a crop of more than 19 million tonnes is expected. In other continents, there is plenty of time for crops to develop, namely in Canda and Australia where the outturns of their crop will dictate the market price for the coming year. There is also a keen eye on US biofuel policy which will be key for soybean demand; it is currently unclear what stance President Trump’s government will take on the issue although the rumours seem to air on the positive side for demand.

PULSES

• Feed beans

Farmer selling of feed beans continues to be consistent, which is surprising at this this time of year. So far, demand has kept up with supply as shorts are quickly filled in until the end of the season. This has meant that the price has stayed relatively unchanged again. This balance will change soon, given that there is a feeling there is still a significant portion of the 2024 crop still to market.

There have been no serious buyers on export, with prices being quoted at £4-6/t below the UK expectations. The UK market must fall to get the remainder of the old crop export business, so that we don’t see a big carry of feed beans.

• Human consumption beans

Surprisingly, there has been some interest in old crop spring beans for human consumption. Although the premium is not what it was at the beginning of harvest, if you still have good quality beans to market, now may be the time to look at them.

• Peas

Buyers have indicated that they are still in need of good quality micronising peas before the end of the season. Premiums are around £100/t down from where they were at the beginning of the season and buyers will be picky on the quality given the abundance of high spec peas around.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

The market has seen a slight uptick from last week’s report in terms of global urea pricing, mainly due to high demand in the US from strong corn planting. Along with vessel delays and with India only securing circa 65% of volume in the previous round, inevitably there will be another tender on the horizon as we head into May which will maintain firm pricing levels for the short term. These factors, along with what may happen with tariffs, who they will affect and the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, all add uncertainty and volatility as we head towards the summer reset.

European AN markets are relatively sedate at present, whilst the UK market is still experiencing good levels of interest for domestic product throughout April, with a view to continue into May along with demand from the grassland market.

With one eye on the current season and the other looking ahead to the summer reset it is worth discussing the options available to you with your Frontier representative. Climate change, global markets, and supply chain issues can make prices unpredictable; Frontier can offer a nitrogen risk management tool to help manage the volatility and risk.

• Liquid

In recent days, both bulk and IBC foliar offerings aimed at growers targeting protein uplift in milling wheat have been released from suppliers; regional and volume variations apply, as does the inclusion of sulphur where required.

As warm, dry conditions persist across the UK, growers are encouraged to include a urease inhibitor such as BASF Limus® Perform within all UAN applications to reduce ammonia emissions by up to 98%. With a bank holiday approaching in the UK and the reduced service that accompany a shorter delivery week, growers are encouraged to plan ahead for deliveries for spot usage as soon as they have tank capacity on farm. Additional product required can be sourced at competitive pricing against solid comparisons for those with further requirements on cereals or forage crops - a full portfolio of grades are available, with Frontier advisors able to discuss all options with growers.

• PKs/Straights/NPKs

Supply issues globally appear to be the key driver for phosphate (P) prices holding firm. Trade flows across the globe are being impacted by various factors. Import options into the US are limited by offsetting duties on Moroccan and Russian supply, with tariffs from Trump further restricting imports or at least raising prices. The continued absence of Chinese exports is keeping global availability tight, along with an increase in Moroccan prices into Europe on the back of new business placed.

The phosphate market hasn’t been alone with its supply challenges. This spring the industry has also seen delays in the arrival of potash to UK ports as the late demand caused a concertina in deliveries onto farm.

To avoid delays on outstanding requirements for P and potassium (K) it is worth mentioning compound NPKs that are readily available for prompt delivery.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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