WHEAT 

• Wheat prices keep falling 

Wheat futures prices continued to slip lower earlier this week, with the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Paris and London all setting new contract lows yet again. Speculative traders hold huge short positions, with some markets technically oversold. However, there is nothing yet evident to present a more positive outlook for prices and a need for short covering. 

The latest negative market element coming is from expectations for a huge US corn crop. This week, the US Pro Farmer crop tour is underway and, with expectations for high corn yield potential, that is exactly what was found on day one.  

South Dakota saw 174.18 bushels per acre this year compared to 156.51 last year, which is well above the 144.13 three-year average. Ohio is seen reaching 185.69 bushels per acre, which would be a record high compared to 183.29 last year and its 180.47 three-year average.  

Day two of the tour in Indiana saw average yields at 193.82 bushels per acre - a new record high beating the 2021 record, and above last year’s 187.54 and the average 182.09. 

Nebraska couldn't set a record with this year's 179.5 bushels per acre but was still up on 173.25 last year and its three-year average of 166.33. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) marked its US corn production estimate up by 26 million tonnes earlier this month for a total of 425.26 million tonnes and over 48 million tonnes up on last year. 

There were encouraging US export sales last week for corn at 2.05 million tonnes and wheat at 722,800 tonnes. The wheat cumulative number is up to 11 million tonnes - 46% of the USDA estimate for the season which is the highest at this stage for 12 years, and 25% ahead of last year. Corn sales, excluding China, total 13.8 million tonnes to 7th August, more than double last year. However, these impressive export numbers were not enough to stop CBOT wheat sinking lower.  

• Russian wheat crop growing 

The main driver for bearish prices last season was the scale of the 2024 Russian wheat crop and the pace of its exports during the first half of the season.  

Despite a wealth of weather-related production issues since the crop was planted, analysts are now in a race to adjust their Russian production estimates higher. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) are up to 85.5 million tonnes, with an exportable surplus of 42.5 million tonnes. IKAR sees August exports between 3.2 and 3.5 million tonnes, whilst analysts at Sovecon are predicting 3.8 million tonnes as the main grain-producing regions in the south complete harvest. 

• Brussel’s numbers wrong 

Brussels published its weekly EU wheat export data, with shipments to date marked down at 1.78 million tonnes since 1st July 2025 compared with 3.76 million tonnes in the same period last year. On the face of it, it’s not a particularly positive piece of data. However, the commission said data for France has been missing since the beginning of the 2024 calendar year and for the 2025 marketing season. It went on to say that export data for Bulgaria had not been updated since the beginning of the 2023-24 marketing year, which begs the question; just how many tonnes are missing and how misleading is the incomplete data in presenting a bearish case for EU exports? Could the near record speculative shorts get a shock once data is updated and accurate? 

There is talk that France could have sold as much as 400,000 tonnes over the past two weeks to Egypt, offering some market support although others doubt it is the case. The Paris near September contract, which in early July was trading at a €12 discount to the December contract, is now trading at a €1 premium, highlighting recent spot French shipping interest.  

Meanwhile, Ukrainian wheat exports reached 1.67 million tonnes to 18th August compared to 3.09 million tonnes by 23rd August last year, highlighting a slow start to harvest but also revealing a demand issue. 

The German Farmers Association said the country’s winter wheat crop will be up 21.9% on the year to 21.7 million tonnes, despite long spells of wet weather delaying harvesting. There are significant quality losses in some areas, with low Hagberg and specific weights evident. Germany and Poland have seen over a week of hot, dry weather and subsequently made significant harvest progress. Poland is around 80% complete, but with 30% feed quality up from the usual 10-15%. 

BARLEY 

We have seen the discount between feed wheat and feed barley narrow this week as wheat futures fall.  

Nearby feed barley prices are supported as consumers look to cover hand to mouth, and some farmers are reluctant to open barn doors now harvest has finished. Longer term, feed barley values will be impacted by the failure rate of spring malting barley.  

The malting barley market has come under more pressure this week as European values have tumbled on excellent yields and quality. Overall demand remains a challenge in both Europe and the UK and a sizable carry in of crop ‘24 barley is weighing heavily on the market. The Scottish spring barley harvest has progressed rapidly showing mixed quality, with poor screenings being a feature of many samples. Although nitrogen levels are low and perfect for the distilling market, the barley has been harvested at historically low moistures. 

OILSEEDS 

Over the past week, the canola and rapeseed markets have been dominated by trade developments between China and Canada.  

On 14th August, China imposed a 75.8% provisional anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, effectively closing the Chinese market to Canadian exporters. This decision immediately weighed on prices, with Canadian canola futures falling by 6.5%, reaching their lowest level in four months. This decision could make Canadian canola more likely to come into Europe. China will have to source its rapeseed from Australia and other sources, which could be bearish for European rapeseed values with the caveat that Canadian seed is genetically modified and can only be used in the biofuel supply chain.  

Harvest in the UK is virtually complete, with an impressive average yield of around 3.6t/ha which is the best we’ve seen for some time.  

Sales activity from farm has been stronger than previous years, with better relative prices to other crops and the higher yields improving movements. With prices holding relatively firm, there is a large intention to replant rapeseed, weather depending. This could take the UK back to more than a 1 million tonne crop which, although a step in the right direction, is still some way from its 1.8 million tonne production requirement. 

PULSES 

• Feed beans 

Baltic beans are being offered FOB for October, around €5 cheaper than the UK. The spot demand from the UK is diminishing, and it perhaps hasn’t been able to take full advantage of this market given the delay in what was thought to be a very early harvest.  

Harvest has truly started in the UK, causing some pressure in the nearby and starting a downwards trend in market prices. Spot shorts are filling up quickly due to lack of domestic demand, with plenty of beans around, and we continue to wait for October, November and December bids. 

Despite a fall in market prices, beans continue to sit at a £50/t premium to feed wheat.  

• Human consumption beans 

Although we are seeing some eager bids for very early UK beans, this will not last long and Egypt’s import requirements will be lower than previous years due to being long of old crop beans.  

German beans are trading to Egypt at cheaper values that UK beans which will squeeze premiums in the UK. Sterling versus the US dollar is also hindering demand. 

Australian beans will be delivered to Egypt in January and February and at this point, UK beans will not feature in the Egyptian market.  

• Peas  

We continue to wait for domestic buyers to come into the market for micronising peas, but our buy-back scheme has now launched and gives an opportunity to add certainty to marketing plans for next season. 

FERTILISER  

• Urea/AN 

India has surprised the market with the speed of its latest urea import tender, with year-on-year volumes nearly double last year’s. This reflects strong domestic sales growth and lower-than-expected production. While this has not yet influenced trade flows, it reduces the likelihood of any autumn weakness in urea values. A key variable remains as to whether China will ease export restrictions and increase volumes into this latest tender 

In Europe, gas prices have fallen to their lowest levels since last summer. However, most UK and EU ammonium nitrate producers source ammonia on the global market rather than from local gas. Ammonia costs have been rising steadily since early summer, creating upward pressure on European AN pricing. Fertiliser manufacturers are expected to remain reactive to market demand, fulfilling contracts but reducing production where required — a pattern seen in previous seasons. UK production offers are currently extending as far as November and December 2025, but are expected to be withdrawn later this week as buying interest returns. 

Farmer demand across the UK and wider Europe has softened, reflecting weaker cereal prices against firmer fertiliser values. The pattern is no different to anything experienced over the last 10 years, where there have been twice as many times when the UK wheat price has been climbing but UK AN price has been falling. This supply and demand mismatch could tighten AN availability, particularly as producers increasingly move to production-on-demand models.  

• Liquid/UAN

Existing buyer commitment for crop '26 remains limited, like the trend within solid. However, interest in liquid fertiliser conversion continues to build, with active conversions ongoing through August. Recent rainfall forecasts for late August have sparked renewed demand for NP liquid products ahead of oilseed rape planting. Nationwide spring liquid terms are yet to be announced and are now expected in early September. 

• Straights/PKs 

PK supply remains constrained, with spot orders often dependent on stock checks. After several years of low demand, importers are operating with much tighter inventories. Growers seeking quick access to DAP or TSP should also consider true granular NPK compounds, which remain available at key port sites. 

For growers establishing oilseed rape, minor pH corrections can still be made with granular lime, applied either pre or post-planting. Demand for lime is currently strong, as is typical at this stage of the season. More advice on this as well as how applications can be supported by our precision services team can be found in this recent blog from applications team leader, James Wyllie.  

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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