WHEAT

• Markets react to favourable weather conditions

Wheat markets continued to drift lower in the past week due to the absence of a clear weather threat and stagnant destination demand. Some welcome rain arrived in some regions of the UK and much of Europe, helping to wash in any recent fertiliser applications and wash away many crop concerns. In the Black Sea region, Southern Russia received some showers. However, Northern Russia and Ukraine remained predominantly dry, a key watch point for early crop risk.

Meanwhile, US weather outlooks have turned favourable for the remainder of April, bringing relief to the Plains and Canada. Increasing rainfall in the Eastern Midwest, particularly in the core soft red winter wheat areas is raising some concern.

• Export picture

On the trade front MATIF fell to contract lows last week as France was excluded from Algeria’s 600,000 tonne tender and Tunisia’s 75,000 tonne purchase, which were both sourced from the Black Sea.

Russian old crop FOB values slipped into the high $240’s/t last week but have since firmed up to the low $250’s/t, supported by a reduction in export taxes which are set to drop to $22/t next week. Despite softer pricing and lower taxes, July to April exports are below 37 million tonnes, so full-season exports may fall short of the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 44 million tonne estimate. Russia’s large farm stocks on 1st April stood at 9.8 million tonnes, down 33% from last year.

• Exchange rate influence

Argentine exchange rates and tax reforms are expected to prompt increased farmer selling, though current export licences sit at just 7.4 million tonnes against a 12 million tonne surplus. The 2025/26 crop is forecast at 20.5 million tonnes, potentially the largest on record. If this year’s export targets aren’t hit, this surplus could grow. In Australia, eastern regions are getting some much needed rain to ease dryness concerns for new crop planting and germination. This sees futures fall by $6/t also in part due to the Australian dollar reaching its strongest close in four months.

Exchange rates continue to be a key driver of grain pricing, with the euro being seen as a safe haven for investors as it has rallied almost 5% against the dollar since the beginning of April. That appreciation has eroded the competitiveness of European wheat on global markets. European shippers will be looking for a pullback in the euro ahead of harvest to regain competitiveness.

BARLEY

• Demand is muted and below normal in general around the world

Tariffs around the world, real or imagined, and a move by world buyers to only purchase when they know they need it is keeping forward barley trade at a low level for the moment. This tends to keep potential sellers chasing buyers, which is generally not great for price rises to appear, especially as Northern Hemisphere cereal harvests are not that far away. However, we are only in the middle of spring and plenty can still happen. Any major weather story from north of the equator would almost certainly bring buying activity in good volume.

• Exports from Tilbury

The first week of April saw the loading of the MV Kamenari with 30,000 tonnes of feed barley from Tilbury grain terminal. Bound for North Africa, this is somewhat a rare event in export terms but necessary to ease a potential oversupply of barley in Southeast England.

OILSEEDS

Trade policy is still playing a big part in oilseeds markets, with US/China relations a key factor for prices and trade flows. This week, there were suggestions of some de-escalation between the two parties, which was positive for soybean values. However, this did not translate through to rapeseed as the ex-farm value decreased in the week. More fundamental issues are affecting the rapeseed price now as crushers work out what remaining cover is needed for the season, with old crop at a precariously high premium to new crop values, currently around £70/t. Margins for the rapeseed crusher are not great currently which is causing some hesitation in purchasing.

New crop production estimates remain comfortable, with Europe, Canada and Australia all aiming for crops above the five-year averages. While Europe is a few months away from harvest, the other two have a lot of time left for something to change in production prospects.

PULSES

• Feed beans

There is little change to the old feed bean crop market this week. Supply remains steady, but homes are now covered until new crop. This all indicates that for the first time in a long time, there may well be a carry-over of beans this season.

New crop feed beans are currently offered aggressively out of the Baltics, around €30/t below where the UK would offer today. There has also been little demand from the domestic market, as beans continue to be expensive against other protein sources. Despite early indications that bean hectarage will be 10% down for new crop, the crop looks good and the timely Easter bank holiday showers will have helped.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

Demand for spot ammonium nitrate and protected urea continues in the UK as growers review on-farm stocks compared to planned final top up nitrogen applications. This later demand on farm is at odds to the view from Western manufacturers and importers, which see the inputs for crop ‘25 as being all but done. This is a slight concern given that supply has been tight all spring and therefore will remain tight for the remainder of the 2025 season. For growers, this is all the more reason to be looking at least a month ahead at final fertiliser requirements.

Elsewhere around the globe, the trade markets in Asia and Australia have remained unaffected following the uncertainty around US tariffs and reduced demand from the EU. Closer to home, low EU demand (from import buyers, not farmers) has caused urea levels to weaken slightly. However, there has been no change to ammonium nitrate pricing, especially given the comments around demand continuing on farm.

Concerns around trade flows of product within the fertiliser industry following tariff announcements have eased very slightly, as several exemptions have now been introduced covering fertilisers coming from Chinese ship owners or operators.

• Liquid/UAN

The same demand has been seen in UAN, with on-farm requirements continuing and some growers increasing order contracts to support crop potential. There has been a bottle neck within UAN deliveries dependent on suppliers, fertiliser grades and distance for delivery. This seems to be easing more now, but growers are still encouraged to look ahead at potential demand to avoid any unnecessary delays.

Currently liquid fertiliser inputs make up between 20-30% of the UK fertiliser market. This percentage share continues to grow as there appears to be another increase in growers looking to convert to liquid fertiliser, perhaps owing to the drier weather pattern experience within the UK this spring.

Buyers of foliar urea polymers such as Nutrino Pro are now getting product onto farm for application post-petal fall on oilseed rape to support pod fill and increase yields. Most of the urea polymer production would have occurred last summer and autumn, so is currently cost comparable to a conventional soil applied top up.

• PKs/straights

Fertiliser suppliers were caught short on stock during early April, as potato planting progressed very quickly and coincided with earlier than normal maize planting. This caused some challenges in DAP movement onto farm, especially given that orders for DAP tend to be smaller.

High quality NPKS compounds were short in supply early this month, but suppliers now have new vessels arriving to support the UK grassland market. The delays experienced from purchasing blended NPKS materials will make growers consider buying from businesses that know stock is available and can arrange their own transport.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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