WHEAT 

• Argentina pressures markets 

All the world’s major wheat exporters have enjoyed strong harvest production levels, and the Southern Hemisphere looks set to add to the ample supply for the second half of the season.  

Argentina has a larger drilled area, with the crop in good condition and the potential to reach more than 20 million tonnes and an exportable surplus of 13 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes on last year. Early this week, Argentina suspended its export taxes on all grains and by-products for over a month to boost US dollar revenues. As an emergency measure, the government is considering an initiative to support the Argentine peso and will leave this in place until the end of October, or until exports reach $7 billion. The move will likely make Argentina’s wheat more competitive and comes when slow importer demand leaves the EU, Russia, and Ukraine behind last season’s export pace. The markets sank on the news, sending the Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) wheat futures to fresh contract lows. 

• Export demand lifts wheat from its lows 

Despite the negativity seen early in the week, a spell of strong export demand has helped lift futures prices form their contract lows. US weekly wheat export inspections for week ending 18th September were well above trade estimates at 854,000 tonnes, which were up 100,000 tonnes on the previous week.  This takes the cumulative wheat tonnes shipped from the US this season to 8.711 million tonnes, which is 13% ahead of that shipped last season at this stage.  

At the end of last week, it was confirmed that Iran had bought up to 2.2 million tonnes of wheat for delivery October through to December and likely to be Black Sea origin. This will also be the case for Algeria, buying up to 500,000 tonnes in its wheat tender and although it may well all be Black Sea origin, the prices were encouraging. Algeria paid $259/$261 which was $3-$5 up on its previous purchase made in July. It was also a higher basis (physical price above futures) to Paris wheat futures than previously. Jordan also bought 60,000 tonnes of wheat, adding to the punchy demand. 

• EU data not helping its farmers 

A seemingly poor EU wheat export performance has been a notable bearish element for markets to combat for some considerable time and has continued to be the case this season.  

Official EU trade data puts wheat shipments to 21st September at 4.12 million tonnes, up from 3.78 million tonnes last week and compares with last year’s 6.13 million tonnes. However, figures for France and Bulgaria were missing again and private analysts see a significant difference in the actual EU wheat shipments that paint an entirely different picture. With errors for the primary wheat exporter, Romania, so far corrected, and France and Bulgaria reflected more accurately, the total EU wheat shipped could be as high as 7 million tonnes. This puts shipments well ahead of last year and at a pace that has the potential to clear the EU wheat surplus, bringing a less bearish outlook for the market. 

OILSEEDS 

• Rapeseed 

Global high stocks are expected for oilseed rape this year, with Australia expecting a 6.8 million tonne crop and Canada reporting a 21 million tonne crop.  

The global market shouldn’t be in short supply of rapeseed. China has started taking Australian seed, with a few trial vessels now done. This means there will be plenty of Canadian canola discounting itself to push in to European markets. For the short term, the market seems to be ignoring the news of big crop sizes globally, due to several vessels being held in Ukrainian ports whilst local authorities try to figure out how to implement the new export levy. This, coupled with a lack of farmer selling, has meant that November MATIF is currently trading at a higher value to May whilst crushes cover the nearby. Once these short-term issues rectify themselves, we can expect the market to soften particularly in the pre-Christmas position. 

PULSES 

• Feed beans 

There has been no fresh demand on the export market since the last update. Baltic beans and German beans are being offered at lower values than the UK, and demand for export into the fish food industry continues to be lacking. This may be because of initial unnecessary fears over high protein wheat being unavailable.  

Due to lack of farmer selling it seems that a few shorts have caught buyers out, meaning there have been spot bids around. However, there’s clearly been no urgency to get these filled in as there has been no impact on market values.  

Post-Christmas demand has started to trade, but not in huge volumes.  Disappointingly, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been pushed back to 2027, which will not help in creating a large demand for home-grown protein sources. Overall, feed beans are slow and steady with volumes churning over to meet the subdued domestic demand.  

• Human consumption beans 

Premiums for human consumption beans need to fall before we see any further demand from the Egyptian market. With the Australian crop expected to be around 1 million tonnes, prices have fallen by around $100/t in the last few weeks. Given these cheap prices and higher quality beans, the Egyptian market will be busy buying Australian beans over UK beans. Baltic beans are also offered around $50-$70/t cheaper than UK today, although the market is not generally interested in such a variable quality crop. A strong sterling versus dollar continues to hinder demand, although this has taken a small knock over the last few days. 

FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN 

UK and European urea and AN markets remain subdued due to winter cropping establishment delays. Grower uptake of AN and urea is estimated to be at 45-50% both in the UK and Europe, leaving a lot of work to do to ensure timely deliveries to farm for spring. The upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) rules, effective from 1st January 2026, are expected to necessitate significant EU trade to manage associated taxes.  

Recent softening in urea markets have allowed for some business being concluded for autumn and spring 2026 delivery, however, shipments have been limited. Market indicators are also suggesting Chinese export reductions into October, which could potentially firm the market and, with India requiring a further 4 million tonnes, values are expected to increase over the next few weeks.  

Ammonia prices, a key component for AN production, have strengthened recently, with little downside anticipated due to production curtailments. UK-produced AN is available for January 2026 delivery, while imported products are scarce as European suppliers find better margins in the European market. 

• Liquid/UAN 

UK suppliers are now focused on deliveries for autumn and spring tank fill with on-farm values reflecting competitive levels against AN and NS systems. Offered volumes remain limited and we would advise that growers to consider covering in their requirements for a large percentage of their needs. Logistics and shipping schedules will remain a key focus, particularly as suppliers look ahead to spring 2026. 

• PKs 

There has been little change on straights values within the UK. Potash remains stable with little upside, however, phosphates remain stable to firm.  

Port-side supplies are lower than normal and importers are reluctant to cover in new cargoes until we see an upside in farm sales.  Given the situation with short supplies last spring, we would advise our customers to start planning spring applications and cover in some product for earlier delivery to avoid issues heading towards spring usage. Soil analysis results are reflecting lower K (potash) levels than normal, mainly due to lower applications this past season and early senescence of crops taking off potassium within the straw. More straw is being taken off the farm for livestock bedding which is also reducing K reserves.  

Given the yield building power of P and K, it is important to maintain and build indexes to ensure good yields going forward. The analysis of pH has also shown a decrease across many UK farms, and this is one core area that can be rectified at a small cost. If not remedied, the ramifications can be only a 50% uptake or less of N, P and K, meaning risk of wasted time, effort and expense. More about the benefits of correcting soil pH can be found in this blog from earlier in the season.  

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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