WHEAT

• Mixed picture for Black Sea crops

Despite some weather concerns, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) edged its Russian wheat production higher again, up 500,000 tonnes on previous estimates, to a total of 86 million tonnes because of higher yields in the Central and Volga regions. It also sees exports up 100,000 tonnes compared to previous estimates of 43 million tonnes. However, difficult weather in Siberia and the Ural Mountain regions is giving increasing concern for quality, leading to questions around how much of the final crop will be fit to compete in the world milling wheat market. Any yield impact because of the adverse weather is not accounted for in the IKAR production estimate.

In Russia, 64 million tonnes of wheat have been harvested so far, while in Ukraine, a larger percentage of wheat than normal is heading for the feed bin. The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitaliy Koval, said the country had 21.01 million tonnes of wheat from 98% of its harvest. The Ukrainian Millers Union put the crop at 21 million tonnes, with 10.3 million tonnes of it at milling quality and 1.7 million tonnes for domestic milling consumption. The Ukrainian Agri Council Public Union put the wheat crop at 21.8 million tonnes, just below 22.7 million tonnes last year. With harvest past two-thirds done, Russian wheat prices are holding up despite a more ready volume of wheat available. 12.5% protein wheat is being offered between $235 and $238 FOB, but bids are well below at $231, while 11.5% protein wheat is being offered around $232 to $235, similar to French levels and $4 to $5 below Ukrainian and Romanian offers.

• Southern Hemisphere set to add to wheat burden

Beneficial weather is leaving the potential for larger wheat crops than first predicted for the major Southern Hemisphere producers, adding to the world wheat burden.

Wheat production prospects in Argentina look strong, with the crop condition put at 73% good/excellent. In Australia, there has been widespread decent rainfall throughout July and August, improving soil moisture levels. As a result, analysts are increasing their wheat production estimates to between 32 and 35 million tonnes and the government estimate, due out on 2nd September, may top these. September is a key month to avoid extreme heat, with harvest starting in October.

• Worrying lack of demand

Brussels published its weekly EU wheat export data with soft wheat (wheat that isn’t durum), shipments to the 24th of August, 2.18 million tonnes compared to 4.15 million tonnes last year. Again, the report noted an incomplete data for major players France and Bulgaria.

Looking back to this time last year, Brussels had published wheat exports at 3.927 million tonnes with data missing then, understating the actual amount by about 220,000 tonnes. It is likely that EU wheat exports might have been around 2.5 million tonnes if all the data was collected. However, the pace is still poor compared to the 2023-24 crop, when exports in the same period were 5.038 million tonnes. That level of buying interest is currently sorely missed. Meanwhile, the EU wheat crop is edging higher, with the Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS), the EU crop monitor, increasing its wheat yield to 6.15t/ha from 6.09t/ha previously, effectively adding about 1.3 million tonnes to the wheat crop. The pace of Ukrainian exports is also poor, with 2.11 million tonnes shipped by 25th August compared with 3.39 million tonnes last year. Russian wheat shipments for August might reach 4 million tonnes which, although a big number, is only two-thirds of the wheat shipped last August.

BARLEY

• Farm sales increase on feed barley

Boosted by sales of spring barley that have not made the malting barley specification due to either high nitrogen or high screenings, farmers increased sales of feed barley last week. This supply was met by bids from merchant shorts covering September and October sales. Barley remains a domestic affair as bids from the export markets cannot compete. Yields of spring barley in Scotland are above average, which help make up some farm income for those parcels that have not passed malting specifications.

• Harvest wraps up in Scotland

Apart from arable land at higher elevations, harvest is largely complete in Scotland, one of the earliest finishes in recent memory. While a significant proportion of the spring barley is failing on screenings, harvest has been a relatively dry affair and yields, as mentioned above, are higher than normal. Attention now turns to sowing and, with great yields on winter cereals with no quality issues, we can assume the winter cereal area will increase significantly at the expense of the spring-sown cereal area.

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed values have cooled off in the last week as the rapeseed harvest nears completion in Europe. The sunseed harvest is just getting started, making high stocks of oilseeds available to the crusher soon. Stats also came out this week which showed the July oilseeds crush at multi-year lows, which is likely a factor of lower margins and perceived lower availability of seeds. This potentially adds some weight to the year’s supply picture and is not the flying start many were expecting.

UK harvest is now complete and is producing the highest average yields in recent history, adding to optimism around a crop which has been missing a positive yield in previous years. Growers are now waiting for enough soil moisture to plant what looks to be an increased area for the coming season.

Politics continues to move markets and this week the focus was on Chinese demand for US soy and its products, which will be a key price driver going forward.

PULSES

• Feed beans

The Baltic bean harvest has now started. As is typical this time of year, the ports are being loaded with beans and are being offered aggressively for spot shipping. Exporters will now turn to Baltic beans, as they continue to be up to €10 cheaper than the current UK offer.

UK prices remain steady, despite September domestic demand filling in quickly. Demand has stayed low, with buyers looking to fill in small October, November and December positions. There will be some more pre-Christmas demand, but it isn’t likely to be a big pull and it will fill in quickly.

Yield analysis remains very varied, although generally poor. This coupled with the reduction in demand has balanced the UK supply and demand, meaning there is a lack of volatility in the market.

• Human consumption beans

Baltic beans for human consumption are being offered around £15 less per tonne than the UK, meaning the premium will slowly diminish for the UK in order to remain competitive and beans will likely be better valued as feed.

There continues to be some Egyptian demand, but beans feel slow to come to market today and we do not want to miss this market.

• Peas

Peas this year are generally quite poor, being small in size and on average above 20% bleached. We are seeing a bump in the French crop – one which is typically sold on a harvest position, bringing pressure to the French market and therefore leaving plenty of French peas around. The low price of French peas will be hindering the UK export market to the continent for micronisers.

UK exports to the likes of China are near non-existent at the moment. China is importing plenty of US peas to hold up its snack food industry whilst it awaits a firm timeline of the US-China tariff negotiations.

We continue to wait for domestic buyers to come into the market for micronising peas, but it may be hard to fulfil their demand from this year’s crop.

Feed pea demand is low in the UK. Demand shorts are filling up quickly due to the amount of failed micronising peas.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

World granular urea prices remain unseasonably firm compared to the previous two seasons. The current index stands just below 220 points, significantly higher than 180 in 2023 and 160 in 2024. This sustained strength is largely attributed to increased demand from India, coupled with reduced domestic production in India. Market sentiment remains bullish, with another Indian import tender anticipated within the next two weeks, suggesting continued upward pressure on prices.

In a notable development, CF Industries withdrew terms from the market last Friday, ahead of the UK Bank Holiday. It has now indicated that the next available production will be January 2026. With European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) regulations and global production concerns, CF appears poised to push prices higher, citing a narrow production window ahead of spring applications.

Recent annual fertiliser import statistics reveal a 24% year-on-year decline in urea imports to the UK. This shift raises questions about underlying market dynamics—whether it reflects reduced industrial demand or a strategic pivot by UK farms towards nitrogen (AN) over urea-based fertilisers.

In contrast, imports of ammonium nitrate (AN) have increased by 18% over the 12-month period ending in May 2025 (June to May basis). This suggests a possible rebalancing of fertiliser preferences among UK growers.

Combined imports of urea, UAN, AN and CAN show an overall decline of 8% in total nutrient volume. This contraction may indicate broader market adjustments, including efficiency gains, changing agronomic practices, or economic pressures influencing purchasing behaviour.

• Liquid/UAN

The recent annual import statistics referenced also show a year-on-year increase in UK UAN volumes. Although exact numbers are difficult to quantify due to delivery phasing, recent years show a clear trend towards growers moving to a UAN system, whether driven by application accuracy at wider bought widths, independent on farm storage or improved headland yield.

At present, the majority of UK UAN suppliers are operating on a POA basis for product in the tank fill and spring delivery periods as shipping schedules and stocks are carefully managed to fulfil existing tank fill orders. Spot demand, for grassland or establishing oilseed rape, has increased in recent days as growers take note of forecast unsettled conditions and are hopeful of moisture on the horizon; a full portfolio of both bulk and IBC products are available for prompt delivery.

• Straights/PKs

With rain expected over the coming days, many growers will begin considering drilling options and timing. While PK fertilisers may not be top of the priority list, unless establishing oilseed rape, it's worth reviewing your plans.

We currently have strong availability of oilseed rape starter fertilisers, both in solid and liquid form. Transport logistics are flexible and can be tailored to your order size, ensuring timely delivery.

For winter cereals, PKs may not be an immediate concern. However, UK stock levels remain low, and replacement costs are trending higher. Now is a good time to engage with the market and explore your options.

Please contact your Frontier representative for tailored advice and product availability.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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