WHEAT 

• Rain eases dryness, wheat prices fall on surplus fears 

Widespread rain across the British Isles and Northern Europe over the bank holiday weekend has alleviated the extended spring dryness, benefiting winter wheat and other combinable crops. However, this improved yield potential coupled with a significant old crop carryover and projected surpluses for 2025-26, has driven wheat futures prices down. 

The UK's 2025 wheat harvest could reach 13 million tonnes. This, along with a high carry-in from the previous season and reduced demand, means it would be desirable to access export markets for UK wheat.  The situation is exacerbated by the potential loss of domestic ethanol production and this week saw Vivergo issue a message to growers, which follows a public statement from Ensus earlier this month calling for government action. 

To compete internationally, domestic feed wheat prices would need to drop significantly. For comparison, Russian new crop milling wheat is reportedly offered as low as $225 FOB (approximately £167/t loaded). Paris wheat futures have also fallen towards recent contract lows due to poor exports and improving EU 2025 harvest prospects. EU weekly wheat exports were just 355,000 tonnes, bringing cumulative shipments to 18.809 million tonnes (compared to 28.364 million tonnes last year). With only June remaining in the season, a heavy EU wheat end-stock and a large incoming crop are anticipated. The Monitoring Agricultural Resource (MARS), the EU’s crop monitor, slightly increased its 2025 wheat yield estimate to 6.04t/ha. While German co-ops reduced their wheat production estimate by 400,000 tonnes to 21.01 million tonnes, this figure is still nearly 14% higher than last year. 

• US wheat not as good as thought 

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures moved higher mid-week following the updated US weekly wheat condition report. US winter wheat dropped two points lower on the week to 50% good/excellent. Although this is still the highest for five years, the trade expected to see 53%. Traders assumed the first spring wheat crop condition rating would come in at 71% good/excellent but were shocked to see it at only 45% good/excellent. The first corn crop rating at 68% good/excellent was also well below average trade estimates of 73%. The US is not expecting any threatening weather in the short term, but with the speculative traders near record short in wheat futures markets, a further deterioration in winter and spring wheat condition is likely to trigger further spells of short covering and prices higher as a result. 

• Australia looking heavy  

Recent Australian wheat sales to China provided a brief tonic for wheat markets.  It was thought more would come given the yield was damaged by severe drought and heat in some of the primary Chinese wheat production regions. However, to date China has taken significantly less wheat this season than the previous two, leaving Australia with a heavy carry over stock weighing on prices. From October 2024 through to March 2025, Australia shipped just 546,000 tonnes of wheat to China compared to 2.9 million tonnes the previous year and 4.4 million tonnes the year prior. This will contribute to heavy Australian end wheat stocks well above the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate of 4.22 million tonnes. Estimates for 2025-26 Australia production range from 28 to 34 million tonnes compared to 34.11 million tonnes the previous year but is still above the 10-year average. Wheat planting started this week in Argentina, the other major wheat exporter in the Southern- Hemisphere. Favourable weather and good soil moisture could see its 2025-26 wheat production rise to 21.2 million tonnes up over 2.5 million tonnes on the year. 

BARLEY 

• Beneficial and much-needed rains finally arrive 

The focus of both feed and malting markets is on the rainfall from over the weekend and into this week, and its impact on winter and spring crops currently in the fields. The reports and feedback are varied regarding the amount of rainfall received and the perceived effects on crops, but overall, the sentiment is positive. Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) reported areas of concern on account of water deficits in Northern Europe on Monday, although in recent days these areas have seen good precipitations levels with Germany and Scandinavia both benefitting.  

• Barley continues to compete to stay in the feed ration 

Feed markets continue to be supported by a lack of farmer selling as this remains significantly off the pace against previous years. Despite the rainfall, new crop discounts to wheat continue to be in the £15-17 range. A further narrowing of the discount to wheat to below £15 may draw out more sellers but would likely price barley out of the ration. However, widening the discount nearer to £20 would be good for barley demand, but would attract very few sellers. With this tight relationship to wheat, feed barley markets are very reactive to moves in wheat markets as barley competes to maintain its existing discount and therefore its place in the feed ration. 

• As malting crop concerns ease, demand remains hindered 

We reported last week that malting markets were easing off the back of reports of forecasted rains, and now many of these rains have come to fruition buyers have substance to re-enforce their renewed confidence. Much like with feed markets, farmers are not committing to selling malting barley today, albeit the reasoning may be slightly more complex than it is with feed, with questions around the quality of the crop that may be coming. Ultimately, the market remains long of old crop and will have supply for the foreseeable through carried stock, and whilst headwinds for demand remain the market has some time until it comes under any kind of price-motivating pressure. 

OILSEEDS 

Rapeseed values have improved in the past week, although the anticipated recovery in global rapeseed and canola supplies may be smaller than previously expected. In the three main exporting countries, including Canada, Australia and the Ukraine, smaller plantings and below average yields are likely to lower combined output by approximately 1 million tonnes this year.   

In contrast, EU rapeseed production is projected to rebound by 2.5 million tonnes. However, this increase will still fall short of crushers’ demand, keeping EU imports high at 6.6 million tonnes for the 2025/26 operating year.   

Rapeseed and canola imports increased by 1 million tonnes globally from last year between January and March 2025. total global imports are expected to set a new record, reaching 20-21 million tonnes for the full season, with both EU-27 and China leading the extra demand pull.  

Biodiesel production has curbed consumption of soya oil in the US in recent months with a year-on-year reduction of 0.4 million tonnes in January to March. Proposed biofuel legislation currently voted on in the US Congress appears favourable to soya oil in the long-term, as it suggests exclusion of foreign material (except Canada).  

FERTILISER  

• AN/Urea 

Early offers on AN, CAN and N/S compounds are now live across Europe, with prices having already stepped up following relatively high demand. Following this, there are now limited offers on N/S solid compound for buyers, with staggered release from all importers. The pricing on these UK offers is directly comparable to European offers and is likely to step up relatively quickly due to low volume available. The challenge for UK buyers is that at the moment, there are no 33.5AN or 34.5 AN offers to compare these N/S offers against in a fertiliser system. The ammonium nitrate-based system buyers appear to be waiting on UK AN levels before committing to their N/S purchase. 

Regional urea business has been completed in the UK, following more importers coming to the market with offers. Growers must not forget that if they are in England, they must calculate their urea purchase with percentage being treated with urease inhibitor for use 1st April onwards. 

Further updates on the export of urea from China have been released with minimum benchmark levels indicated, although there is some doubt on the speed at which this business will conclude given the lengthy process of approval. This most recent announcement has delayed trade decisions within typical trade regions for China.  

We would advise growers do not rush purchasing decisions and ensure their fertiliser is going to give them the versatility with their crop nutrition inputs for crop ‘26. 

• UAN/Liquid 

It is likely that new season UAN offers for the UK will be available at a very similar time to UK ammonium nitrate offers. Although the focus is on new season pricing, final deliveries of liquid continue where growers are topping up last nitrogen balances, or in grassland business where their fertiliser applications carry all the way through to July/August. 

• PKs/Straights 

There is no change on PKs to report for the UK market as demand is low and focus now will be on nitrogen purchases. Any buyers of NPK compounds for grassland inputs will need to check stocks and availability. All grades still remain low in stock and regionally available. It is likely that the UK market will see a revised offer on polysulphate; important to ensure it remains competitive. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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