WHEAT 

• Strong US crop production prospects 

Data published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday suggests the US will have a more than ample wheat and corn supply for the coming season and will need to be a competitive exporter.  

1st June wheat stocks for wheat at 0.851 billion bushels were slightly above trade estimates average of 0.836 billion bushels and last year's 0.696 billion bushels. Corn stocks at 4.644 billion bushels were slightly above the trade estimates of 4.641, but below last year’s 4.997 billion bushels.  

The US wheat planted area was above trade estimates at 45.478 million acres and slightly below last year’s 46.079 million acres. The corn planted area at 95.2 million acres, although slightly below trade estimates, is significantly higher than last year’s 90.6 million acres. The US corn crop condition is put at 73% good/excellent, up three points on the week and the best it has been at this point since 2018. The US looks set to harvest a corn crop almost 402 million tonnes, up 25 million tonnes on the year. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures fell to new contract lows on this data this week, despite notable dollar weakness. The US winter wheat condition fell one point to 48% good/excellent as the harvest progressed to 37% complete. The spring wheat condition slipped by one point to 53% good/excellent and remains well below last year’s 72%. 

The US wheat supply and demand season begins 1st June and so far, just 1.28 million tonnes have been shipped, which is 8% down on last year’s pace. The USDA sees a similar US wheat export estimate to last year at over 22 million tonnes.  

• EU wheat exporters struggle to the end 

Official EU wheat exports were up just 262,000 tonnes on the week to 29th June, with a cumulative number of 20.187 million tonnes compared with 31.07 million tonnes the previous year. The EU surplus for the coming season is expected to be like 2023-24, above 30 million tonnes. 

Export potential is optimistic particularly with the euro reaching a near four-year high against the US dollar this week.  Early French wheat yields are reportedly better than expected at 7t/ha, up from 6t/ha last year, but were troubled with low protein. Traders were therefore reluctant to offer export cargos as a result in case the minimum protein standard cannot be met. 

In Germany, winter barley yields are very good giving increasing optimism for its wheat and The German Farmers’ Association said the German grain harvest would rise to 40.1 million tonnes. This is despite periods of dryness and heat and will be up from 39 million tonnes last year. 

• Turkey back before Christmas? 

Traditional wheat importer Turkey dealt a notable bearish card last season, withdrawing from international trade and stopping imports. However, early harvest results have suggested that the country is not enjoying good yields which gives some room for optimism over its future import needs. The government there is reported to be paying its farmers the sterling equivalent of £240 per tonne for their milling wheat which is significantly above import prices. Russia is the traditional source for imports and with offers around $245, including freight which is less than £180 per tonne, the heavy discount to the domestic prices might encourage trade in due course. 

BARLEY 

• UK harvest begins in warm conditions 

The UK winter barley harvest is underway, with recent heatwaves accelerating crops through the final stages of development and into harvest dates that are at least 7 to10 days early for many. Early progress is being made, primarily in the East of England, through East Anglia, and into the Midlands as far north as South Yorkshire. The market expects harvesting to become more widespread and in full flow within the next week throughout many parts of England. Early yield and quality results are variable, but notably far better than had been expected of early winter crops. Early crop yields are average to above average, with many seeing specific weights of 65kg/hl and above. 

• Demand remains slow as harvest pressure is yet to kick in 

Despite harvest starting for some, farmer selling is still yet to pick up as the market would expect amidst harvest pressure. It would appear many may be leaving it as late as possible before selling what they need to ensure they can get their harvest in. the market dropping last week did little to motivate sales, while consumer demand remains low and the UK remains uncompetitive in export markets versus other origins. 

• Early signs good for winter malting barley 

Malting barley markets remain quiet, with early UK winter barley results suggest a clean and good quality crop, although it is early days for having a clear picture. The UK market continues to wait for the fate of spring barley crops that have had a very difficult growing season amid dry conditions since planting. In France, the winter barley harvest has been progressing well and at pace. Local reports suggest above average yield and excellent quality crops on the winter barley cut so far, and early spring barley results suggest similar - although few spring crops have yet been cut. 

OILSEEDS  

The European rapeseed market continued its downward trajectory over the past week. MATIF slid notably lower, losing €12 from this time last week in the November 25 position. This reflects both the ongoing pessimism around forward demand and increasing optimism about EU supply potential. Recent assessments from Strategie Grains and other analysts predict the 2025/26 EU crop will be in the region of 19 million tonnes, an 11% increase year on year.  

In Canada, futures have been supported due to reduced planting areas, with estimates suggesting a decline of 0.2 million hectares compared to last year. This reduction is a result of farmers planting more grains and pulses as opposed to oilseeds. However, this bullish factor is offset by weak demand. May crush volumes fell by 10% year on year, marking the lowest level in the past 11 months. 

FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN   

Two weeks on from the Middle East crisis, we are starting to see production return to Egyptian and Iranian urea sites albeit at a reduced capacity. Over the next few weeks whilst we see progress on the Indian tender (2 million tonnes) values will remain firm. 

The recent moves on sterling/euro to dollar currency exchanges will help import values into the UK and Europe. With perhaps 60% of the UKs urea still to be traded onto farm and a similar percentage across Europe to be done cargoes will be sought after, especially with the lack of tonnes available. 

 AN values remain firm and will continue to hold, if not increase further, as we progress towards the third quarter of 2025.  As of 1st July, EU members imposed a further tariff onto Russian products which will put a floor into the market going forward. 

Domestic supplies continue to be tight, and we would advise growers to cover some certainly for the short to medium term.   

• Liquid 

With winter barley harvest underway in some areas of the UK now, those looking for early entry into oilseed rape in the coming weeks and months have access to a full range of bulk and IBC, NP and NPK starter fertilisers. Growers are reminded that any UAN-containing products that are applied this summer for oilseed rape establishment (except where placed) or post-cutting on grassland, must contain a urease inhibitor, such as Limus® Perform, to remain compliant with the Urea Stewardship Scheme. Following the recent withdrawal of UAN offers for the tank fill delivery period, revised terms on a very limited volume have been released in recent days for growers with capacity to take product in the autumn months.   

• PKs/Straights 

Phosphates remain tight in supply across all areas of the world and tariffs will only firm markets further. Potash is on a stable to firm footing, with supplies also in short supply. 

With harvest upon us, growers need to consider requirements for early autumn establishment and should perhaps hedge their bets and cover a tonnage for spring use. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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