WHEAT

No end to the market weakness

More than ample world supply is keeping wheat prices under pressure and pushed Paris wheat futures lower this week to again set new contract lows.

All of the major wheat producers and exports are set to harvest large crops during the 2025-26 season, leaving any short/medium term price recovery challenging at best. Despite numerous weather issues during its growth cycle, the Russian wheat crop is now seen rising above 85 million tonnes by analysts, with the potential for exports reaching almost 44 million tonnes.

In terms of the wider picture, the EU commission increased its EU common wheat production estimate by 800,000 tonnes to 128.1 million tonnes. In the Southern Hemisphere, prospects are upbeat, with planting in Argentina near complete on 6.7 million hectares while in Australia, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) increased the official crop estimate up to 33.8 million tonnes - just short of last year’s 34 million tonnes and well above the five-year average.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada sees Canada producing 35.5 million tonnes of wheat which, although 1.1% down on last year, is over 2 million tonnes up on the year prior to that.

 

Mixed export progress

With plenty of wheat looking for a home, the world’s major importers sit relaxed about securing the supplies they need and, buying hand to mouth, leaving slow demand. This has left the EU, Russia and Ukraine behind on last season’s export pace, adding to the market negativity.

EU wheat exports officially reached 2.57 million tonnes versus 4.6 million tonnes last year, although the figures have no record for French shipments which are estimated to be well above 1 million tonnes. This could mean the EU total shipped amount is nearer 4 million tonnes.

There is still some hope for French wheat exporters as China, despite the ceremonial parade in Beijing this week, is reluctant to authorise any Russian winter imports according to Russian Minister of Agriculture, Oksana Lut. 

German exporters will have less opportunity into the UK this season given our high quality crop in contrast to last year. EU shipments to the UK sit at 153,948 tonnes, half of what it was this time last year at 328,792 tonnes.

Ukraine wheat exports to 3rd September were put at 2.87 million tonnes, trailing last year by over 1 million. However, the country’s wheat harvest will be smaller on the year at 21.8 million tonnes versus 22.7 million tonnes. Russia’s wheat shipments for August are estimated to be as much as 4.1 million tonnes - over double the shipments made in July but still lag well behind last August’s 5.7 million tonnes.

In contrast, the US is pushing ahead with export sales which are running 9% ahead of the pace needed to reach the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) target. Despite this and two consecutive weeks for US corn sales achieving over 2 million tonnes, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures are only 2% above their contract lows as US exporters try to maintain a competitive edge.

Public tenders to buy wheat get fewer but this week, Tunisia looked to buy 125,000 tonnes of 11.5% protein / 250 Hagberg wheat. Offers were as low as $255 including shipping costs, the sterling equivalent of about £190 per tonne. At the time of writing, there were no trades confirmed.

 

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BARLEY

Malting barley, either failed or looking for movement, hits the feed pile

The volume of failed malting barley, either for high nitrogen or screenings, is weighing heavy on the feed market. Even full spec malting barley, in particular in the South of England, is hitting the feed market already as growers in need of cash or space look for quicker movement into feed markets. Malting markets continue to suffer from a lack of demand, so movement is less guaranteed and likely something growers will have to wait for.

Feed consumers are still only covering their nearby shorts for the most part, amid these markets remaining supported due to farm-selling. Very few consumers are committing to forward markets today as many already have reasonable cover on and are happy to wait to review their mill usages and spot markets before deciding what to do next. For the ruminant sector in particular, the consumer will also have to monitor their feed demand in the coming months amid low forage stocks in many areas of England and Wales, and a potential increase in demand for supplementary feeding on farm as a result.

 

Malting continues to struggle despite quality issues

As mentioned, demand for malting barley remains slow and headwinds still remain for a resolution to this issue.

Harvest is wrapped up for most, even in Scotland, and it is now very clear that this year’s crop is not free from any major issues – unlike last year’s vintage crop.

High nitrogen or high screenings are proving common, with quality issues increasing the further north you go in the UK. The malting market isn’t feeling the pressure of this though, as with the slow demand and the large carry-in stocks, there remains no need for the buyer to panic and act today.

 

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OILSEEDS

Rapeseed values continued to move lower over the last week as the European harvest nears completion with a strong production number, which many experts see exceeding 20 million tonnes.

In combination, both the Canadian and Australian rapeseed crops have received increased production ideas from their respective official national bodies, Statistics Canada and ABARES. This will mean increased export supplies are available to both world importing markets, including Europe.

The tailwinds of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola are still affecting markets, with Canadian canola now discounting itself to enter the European market and China reportedly purchasing some ‘test’ vessels from Australia. This trade flow will be important to watch all year as if reversed it could cause some logistical challenges.

Meanwhile in the UK, plantings are progressing well, with encouraging rains in the forecast to aid a bigger planted area.

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PULSES

Feed beans

The Baltic harvest is now well under way, which is putting pressure on their export value. As a consequence, there are no FOB bids for the UK market as it is deemed too expensive. We will have to wait for the Baltic harvest pressure to slow down before the UK will have the opportunity to export again. There is also little demand into the European fish food industry as high protein wheat continues to be getting cheaper after the initial shortage fears at the beginning of the season.

It’s a similar story for domestic demand. Any bids are for the nearby, with post-Christmas demand being non-existent. Beans continue to be expensive against other protein sources. There is a big over supply of rapemeal in Europe, which is not helping the situation.

It’s hard to see a story for the beans to increase in value today, with everything pointing in the opposite direction.

 

Human consumption beans

It generally feels like there are very few beans making human consumption spec this year. The size overall seems quite small and there are high levels of bruchid. There is some Egyptian demand, however, Australia is offering premium beans aggressively and a large volume of export has already traded.

 

Peas 

The French micronsing pea value has started to creep upwards which is typical as the harvest pressure ends. With this steady increase, UK peas will start to feature again and this will bring the UK domestic buyers back into the market. Today, sellers continue to hold onto any good quality peas given that this a small percentage of the overall crop this year. Bids will need to be high to bring these sellers out. The market feels at a stalemate.

There continues to be some feed pea demand in the UK. However, pre-Christmas shorts are filling up quickly, with most of the demand now being in the March-June 2026 position.

 

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FERTILISER

Urea and AN

India’s September urea tender has taken centre stage on the global nitrogen market.

The tender, which aims to secure 2 million tonnes for shipment by 31st October, is set to close on 2nd September. Strong participation is expected from suppliers already active in the August tender, including those from the Middle East, China, Egypt, Southeast Asia and the Baltics.

The next fortnight will be pivotal in shaping global price direction. Should India fall short of covering the full volume, this would likely lend bullish support to urea values. However, seasonally weak demand from key importers such as Indonesia, alongside large inventory levels in Iran, could result in a more bearish tone, with potential for volumes to be covered at lower price levels than those seen in August.

Meanwhile, global ammonia prices remain stable to firm, underpinned by ongoing supply constraints. Over the weekend, Ma’aden Phosphate Co’s ammonia plant in Saudi Arabia experienced an unplanned shutdown, with reports suggesting the outage could last up to 90 days, removing a significant volume from the market and adding further support to global ammonia values.

As anticipated, domestically CF Industries has revised its January delivery terms, marking a step up from the previously issued (and since withdrawn) December offer. While CF is now sold out of production through to the new year, its updated values remain competitive when compared to the limited volumes of imported AN currently available in the UK.

 

UAN

The ongoing shift among UK growers toward liquid fertiliser systems continues to shape the UAN market. Suppliers are currently focused on fulfilling tank fill deliveries for the late summer and autumn periods, with strong forward order books already in place.

Logistics and shipping schedules remain a key focus, particularly as suppliers look ahead to the spring 2026 delivery window. Offers for nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur products are expected to emerge later this month. While a full portfolio of grades is likely to be made available, offered volumes are expected to be limited, reflecting the tightness in supply and careful forward planning by manufacturers.

 

P & K

Recent rainfall across key growing regions in the UK has triggered a noticeable uptick in spot demand for PK and NPK fertiliser grades, particularly for oilseed rape establishment and forage crops.

This surge in activity is helping to keep values supported at current levels, with market sentiment underpinned by short-term buying interest. However, UK stock levels remain low, and physical availability of P and K products remains tight. This constrained domestic position is compounded by strong global demand, particularly for MOP and DAP into Brazil and other BRICS nations, where import volumes continue to build ahead of peak application periods. Looking ahead, the outlook for replacement values in the UK remains firm, driven by global supply and continued geopolitical risks associated with shipping in and around the Black Sea. These factors are expected to keep upward pressure on prices so please contact your Frontier representative to discuss the options available for this autumn.

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Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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