WHEAT

• Improving US wheat production prospects

Recent beneficial rainfall across many of the major US winter wheat producing states has lifted the crop condition to its best in several years. The national winter wheat crop moved two points higher on the week to 51% good/excellent, which is now a point ahead of last year and its best at this time since 2020.

Improving yield potential will, to a degree, offset an estimated lower winter wheat planted area for 2025 harvest than the previous year. Oklahoma is the third largest winter wheat producing state and is expected to produce 101.169 million bushels with an average yield of 35.9 bushels per acre following an annual crop tour. This compares with 108.3 million bushels last year according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) with the 2025 Oklahoma wheat area 5% lower. Combined with a dry winter wheat production, prospects looked challenging, but April proved to be the wettest on record and has boosted yield estimates. Harvest is expected to start early June. Next week, the annual crop tour takes place in primary wheat producing state Kansas.

• Wheat prices lower

Earlier this week, French and UK wheat futures fell to new contract lows on heavy old crop stocks and forecast beneficial rain. Dry areas of eastern Europe as well as Ukraine and Russia are set to see rain easing drought concerns. Russian wheat prices were lower last week, with no confirmed significant crop damage resulting from recent frosts.  Some are increasing their 2025 wheat production estimates, with the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies (IKAR) moving up from 82.5 million tonnes to 83.8 million tonnes. Russian 12.5% protein milling wheat offers are down $2 on the week to $247 FOB, with harvest offers down at around $235. Production estimates for Ukraine are seen lower below 20 million tonnes due to frosts and dry weather over 3.5 million tonnes below last year.

Russian April wheat exports are estimated to be 2.3 million tonnes which is half that shipped last April, and it is likely total shipments for the season will be around 40 million tonnes. This is 4 million tonnes below the USDA estimate and suggests a heavier carry out Russian wheat stock than in the current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Weekly EU wheat exports to the week ending 4th May were a modest 340,000 tonnes, taking the total to 17.807 million tonnes versus 26.977 million tonnes this time last year.

• Slight recovery

World wheat futures prices moved higher midweek, led by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures. News of a scheduled meeting between US and Chinese officials in Switzerland to diffuse recent tariff trade tensions gave optimism for improved wheat sales prospects to China. Dryness in China’s Henan Province, a major wheat producing region, may lead to reduced output and increased wheat imports. Dryness also persists in Australia.

BARLEY

• Lower export demand for old crop feed barley

Demand for old crop feed barley export has fallen in the last week and many merchants are well-covered into their existing export sales, causing bids into East Anglian export facilities to either be fully withdrawn or fall by around £8 on the week. Domestically, most consumers are covering their remaining shorts hand-to-mouth; choosing to review the need to have barley in the feed ration and run tighter books. There is still a demand for feed to the livestock sector, particularly in the North, as the livestock market remains strong.

• Dryness continues to cause nervousness in new crop barley markets

On new crop, there are more concerns over a lack of rainfall, with no rainfall of note in the forecast for the UK in at least the next seven days. We have seen the discount of barley compared to wheat narrow to around £15 to £18, although that is doing little to entice new crop feed barley demand.

For malting barley demand for brewing and distilling continues to struggle but malting values are now lifting on new crop due to growing concerns over a lack of rainfall.

OILSEEDS

Over the last week, traders have been focusing on the expiry of the May MATIF rapeseed contract, which removed the closest reference point for working out prices.

There are wide ranging estimates in what the carryover into the 2025/26 season will be, both in Europe and the UK, so the old crop market is likely to stay volatile until that is worked out. Australian seed continues to come into Europe at a pace, with exports sitting at 2.8 million tonnes at the end of March, which will surely be helping improve carryout prospects to next year.

New crop prospects in Europe are decent and in-line with the five-year average of approximately 19 million tonnes, around 13% up from last year's production. In Ukraine, the rapeseed crop is decreasing this year, which may limit access to the early season seed which has been available to European crushers in the last few years.

In the UK, crop conditions are good with reduced reports of crop failures and notionally lower levels of flea beetle. Weather pending, we should be set for improved yields on last year.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

There is strong demand for US product and urea, with prices there remaining firm. With rumours that China may resume exports sometime in May, albeit on a potential quota basis, global urea prices are still stable, though with some uncertainty until clarification on this is given. At the time of writing, there is no official confirmation. If China brings back its exports, there could be more supply than demand on the worldwide stage, just as European usage comes to an end. However, this may also help new season values. At the end of last week, the UK market saw the first offers for new season granular urea pricing offered in the mid £350s.  The uptake on this offer from growers was very muted, with little business being done.

Nitrates in Europe and the UK are in a strong place for the spot market, as there is still some demand, although it has dwindled a little. For the most part, this is because many areas of the UK are unseasonably dry and would welcome some rain to the growing crops, but there is no immediate sign in the forecast.

There are indications that we may see a reset in nitrogen pricing sometime later in May in the UK, but it's likely to be delivery from June onwards. Ammonia prices have eased slightly, which may help new season UK nitrogen values, but by how much is unknown. With the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) future of food conference around the corner, it’s unlikely that we will be getting new season nitrogen values beforehand, but it could give the market some guidance on pricing levels. New season values need to find a balance between fertiliser production costs and current grain prices along with farm economics. Frontier has a nitrogen risk management tool to manage volatility in the market, so please keep in touch with your Frontier representative as to the fertiliser market outlook.

• Liquid

UAN values remain stable and unchanged. As final applications on cereals approach, growers with any additional requirements for this season have access to a full range of grades for prompt delivery.

Cereals products are available for growers targeting protein uplift on milling wheats; options are available for those with bulk storage, or alternative products can be supplied in IBCs for ease of logistics on farm. As oilseed rape crops flower across the UK, growers are encouraged to apply a foliar product, such as Nutrino Pro, at petal fall to maintain canopy duration and increase yield through supporting pod fill. Growers reviewing their crop nutrition system following spring applications (and ahead of new season values) should be aware of the benefits a liquid fertiliser programme offers. An accurate and uniform spreading to wider bout widths, a wide range of nitrogen, sulphur and NPK grades and independent storage are just a few of the benefits liquid fertiliser can offer.

• PKs/Straights/NPKs

Supply issues globally are keeping phosphate values steady, with a lack of suppliers to the UK. However, this may change with a halt to the Chinese export ban, meaning a change in global trade flows on phosphate and more supply becoming available. Although potash remains stable, this again, could change depending on how the European vote on tariffs for Russian product goes. Even though the UK doesn’t buy Russian product, this could release more supply worldwide and the US tariffs on Canadian potash may influence values globally.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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