To some degree farming is always a gamble, with decisions often made well in advance of knowing all the facts or what weather you’ll face. This season, making strategic decisions might feel particularly risky for milling wheat growers who are facing some tough economic choices.

With current high nitrogen fertiliser prices potentially presenting a significant cost investment if you still have more to buy to push for protein and a dry spring impacting nutrient uptake, it might feel hard to find the confidence to push for milling specification.

So, when you’re not sure whether to stick or twist, do you carry on growing your planned milling wheat crops or revert to growing feed wheat?

In this article, I’m going to explore some of the difficulties in making that decision and offer some advice on how to feel confident in whichever strategy you choose.

Don’t get caught in the middle

Before I even begin to talk about factors that might influence your choice, my strongest advice is always to make sure you don’t get caught in indecision and fall into the trap of making some investment into a milling wheat programme but ultimately not enough to achieve the required milling specification.

If you’ve already got a milling contract in place, the answer is easy, but for those on the open market, it’s harder to make that choice. You’re in a situation where you need to weigh up your fertiliser cost against current milling premiums and, ultimately, gamble on what they might be when it comes time to sell.

Should I hold onto my fertiliser for next season?

I’m hearing a lot of conversations around whether it’s the sensible choice to reduce nitrogen applications this season and hold onto fertiliser you’ve already bought to use next season. On the face of it, it can seem a wise decision to save your nitrogen, but ultimately whether this will create better margins in the long run comes down to whether the margin lost from withholding nitrogen from this year’s crop will be made up by gains next year.

To make an informed decision, you would need to know the following:

1.      What will the yield loss be from my crops this year if I hold back on my nitrogen programme now?

2.      What will my average grain price be for this season to value that yield loss?

3.      What will my total cost of fertiliser be for next season?

4.      What will be my average grain price for next season?

As it is impossible to know the answers to all of those questions, it’s impossible to know whether or not your expected margins next year will offset any losses from this season, so it remains a gamble rather than an informed decision.

I’ve decided to push for milling wheat – what approach should I take?

If you’ve decided to push for milling wheat, your next consideration will be what product to apply and at what rate.

Calculate your crop’s requirements

To some degree the answer to this question can be calculated fairly simply. To achieve 13% grain protein, the crop needs to take up 28.5kgs of nitrogen per hectare for every tonne of yield (or 27.4kgs for 12.5% protein).

The problem with this calculation is you don’t know what yield your fields are ultimately going to achieve or how well they’ll take up the applied nitrogen.

Consider actual yield potential

So, what can you do?

In my view, the best strategy is to look back at your historic yields and associated grain proteins to see the range achieved and then assess the condition of this year’s crops and weather in comparison to those previous years.

Most wheat crops came through this winter in good condition and have continued to progress well, but there are some regions that are becoming dry on the surface which isn’t helping uptake of fertiliser. In contrast, over winter rainfall was high across a lot of the country which means soil nitrogen levels were generally reduced at the start of spring.

Biomass imagery can really help to see how crops are performing at this stage in the season in comparison to previous years. It also allows for nitrogen applications to be tailored within the field to match the yield potential and better achieve the protein requirements.

Identify best application window

To achieve milling specification for wheat, you’ll generally be looking at a combination of soil-applied and foliar nitrogen unless you’re growing for a Warburtons contract, which doesn’t allow for foliar applications on the ear but does allow a lower protein specification (12.5%).

For soil-applied fertiliser - either solid or liquid – there’s always a potential trade off. The later it’s applied (towards ear emergence), the more the nitrogen goes to building protein rather than yield. However, rainfall is required to wash in the product for good uptake. This is where splitting the final application can really help as it reduces the amount you need to apply, which means you can be a lot braver and push the timing back; however, I appreciate the cost of an extra pass has risen with the increase in red diesel.

For foliar nitrogen - either basic foliar urea or the newer high-efficiency products like Multi N - the timing is more straightforward, targeting the milky ripe growth stage to achieve the best performance.

Decision support

Some of these decisions aren’t easy, especially in our current economic and weather climate, but by taking a methodical approach based on current and predicted values as well as your historical field performance, you can make sure you’re making a choice based on your real crop potential and avoid a stop-start approach that can potentially increase your spend but not your income.

For decision-making support or to find out more about the products and services mentioned in this article, speak to your Frontier advisor or contact us directly on 0800 227 445 or info@frontierag.co.uk