WHEAT

London wheat futures’ May 27 contract has seen the start of a recovery over the past week. Following a sell-off through most of October/early November, wheat futures fell to their lowest level since mid-July ’26 on Friday 6th November (£195.75/t), before recovering to £203/t today. Funds had reduced their MATIF wheat longs back to near zero over recent weeks, but have started rebuilding again over the week which has provided some needed support for market prices.

The market has been closely following the first direct US-mediated peace talks in nine months between Russia and Ukraine, occurring in Abu Dhabi this week. There was an agreement in principle for a large-scale prisoner exchange but there’s been no major breakthrough on a ceasefire or territorial resolution. There were also reports of a drone strike on Russia’s key Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga this week, which started a fire.

This week also brought the release of November’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which overall was quite neutral. Beginning stocks were increased by 1.31 million tonnes and production increased by 5.12 million tonnes, alongside small decreases in world import/exports and a small increase of 1.65 million tonnes in total consumption. Overall, this led to an increase of 4.78 million tonnes in ending stocks to a new total of 280.82 million tonnes. World ending stocks in 25/26 were 282.86 million tonnes.

Demand for European wheat continues, with Algeria reportedly paying $313/t CIF (cost, insurance and freight) for 700,000 tonnes of January milling wheat, thought to be coming from Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic region. There were also reports of China buying French wheat, but this has not been confirmed and no volume or pricing information is known.

Overall, the market is closely watching the developments in the Black Sea region as any concrete peace deal is likely to spark another sell off. On the other hand, prices could edge upwards the longer the war goes on without a deal. Estimates currently put Ukraine’s year end stocks at 30 million tonnes vs. 10 million tonnes last year. Traders will also be wary of large Southern Hemisphere supplies with Argentina and Australia set to produce 55.5 million tonnes of wheat between them. This is an increase of three million tonnes from October’s USDA WASDE report.

BARLEY

Despite the recent weakness in the feed grain complex, the UK feed barley market remains underpinned by a relatively tight domestic supply situation. In the last week, we’ve seen the discount between feed wheat and feed barley narrow as the market continues to monitor winter feed demand due to forage supplies being affected by the dry 2026 growing season. Feed barley consumption is expected to stay relatively robust through the winter, but it should be noted that at the current narrow discounts to wheat, feed barley will start losing its place in some rations which, in turn, could lead to reduced demand.

It’s been a quiet week in the malting barley market and the well-documented slowdown in whisky and malt demand, particularly in Scotland, continues to dominate market directions. Sizable stocks of Crop 24 and Crop 25 malting barley continue to weigh heavy on the market and, despite challenges with the English malting barley crop in some areas (high nitrogen and poor screenings), malting barley flows are starting to move barley from areas of good quality to areas of demand. The UK is not competitive against other EU malting barley origins on the export market and the likelihood of much malting barley export demand for the remainder of the season feels very limited.

Looking forward to next year, Frontier is offering a range of marketing options to help growers manage risk and market their malting barley crops. Guaranteed minimum premium contracts and malting barley pools are now open and look an attractive option with the ongoing challenges with malting barley demand. Please speak to your local farm trader for more information.

OSR

UK oilseed values have been racing lower as global political shifts and an abundance of production affect the competitiveness of local crops. The February MATIF rapeseed contract has hit its lowest level since August, closing at €522.75/t on 6th November. That being said, the bullish USDA WASDE soybean report has helped OSR values climb up to around €538/t over the past few days.

Local production expectations are shifting as conditions remain largely dry. The late October rains fell short of ideal, leaving topsoil drier than average and recently drilled crops at risk of a slow start. We’re far from panic stations, but without additional rainfall before Christmas, local crops will struggle and production will be lower again this year - even on the back of the increased plantings expected.

Turning to Australia, near-record production is putting global markets on notice. The harvest is on track to bring more than eight million tonnes to market, possibly challenging the record of 8.6 million tonnes set in 2022/23, and is running several weeks ahead of schedule, which adds to the pressure. Australian oilseeds typically ship into European crush plants; however, over the last 12 months they’ve found a second home in China, competing head-to-head with Canadian-origin canola in both markets. Other grains are also having bumper years, which will test port capacity. This is likely to be the biggest headache for the Australian programme and could slow the export pace.

Talks continue in the Black Sea region between Russia and Ukraine, with the US attempting to broker a peace deal. Prospects of peace treaties will weigh on oilseed prices, as the possibility of Black Sea vegetable oils returning to market will raise the expectation of greater global supply.

More peace talks are expected after Donald Trump admitted the war in Iran was a motivating factor in American voters’ rebuke of Republican governance. Now more than ever, Trump will be looking to end the war, and the Democratic Party will be eager to get early runs on the board, potentially signalling a swift end to the conflict once Democrats are sworn in next January. The war has bolstered oil prices and contributed to the cost-of-living crisis, not only in the US but globally. Brent crude has tumbled more than $20/barrel in the last few days, dragging rapeseed values with it.

FERTILISER

Recent UK fertiliser industry statistics show that actual farm deliveries are running around 10% behind last year, while import data indicates there has been no significant increase in landed tonnes versus the previous season.

The word resilience is frequently used when discussing the fertiliser supply chain, but the reality is that there are very few options available when trying to service a compressed spring application window.  There is potential to import products however, this will cause storage issues. Hazardous material regulations severely restrict storage capacity at UK ports, leaving little room for additional inventory.

Historically, the most efficient and reliable place to store fertiliser has been on farm, ready for spring application. For over 50 years this model served the industry well. More recently, , changing farm purchasing habits have driven a greater reliance on "just-in-time" buying. If current trends continue, spring 2027 could present the biggest supply chain challenge our industry has ever faced.

Imports are broadly similar to last year, deliveries remain behind and we now have only around 33 effective delivery days before the Christmas break. While haulage capacity is generally available during this period, many farms are understandably focused elsewhere and are not actively taking deliveries.

The key question remains: what happens if we get an early spring?

The situation is mirrored across much of Europe, but many continental markets have the advantage of greater domestic manufacturing capacity and local co-operative storage networks holding product closer to farm. UK regulations have largely removed those inland storage options, increasing reliance on product moving directly through the supply chain when demand arrives.

There is already plenty to think about regarding product availability, but logistics could become an equally important factor this spring. With diesel prices at levels not seen for some time, haulage companies are facing significant cost pressures just to keep vehicles on the road. At the same time, competition from other industries offering higher returns, simpler delivery schedules and fewer hazardous load requirements means the fertiliser sector is unlikely to have access to the same level of haulage support that it has traditionally relied upon.

This is another reason why late purchasing carries increased risk. If fertiliser demand becomes concentrated into a short period, particularly following an early spring, the challenge may not simply be product availability but having sufficient transport capacity to move tonnes when and where they are needed. As an industry, we face limited manufacturing capacity, restricted import volumes and a logistics network that cannot be expanded overnight.

Forward planning remains the best defence against these risks. The more product that is positioned on farm before Christmas, the greater the likelihood of avoiding the supply bottlenecks that could emerge during a compressed spring application season.

For several weeks now, our advice has remained unchanged: aim to be 75-80% covered for spring requirements, with as much product physically on farm as possible before Christmas.

We'll continue to reinforce this message over the coming weeks. It may not guarantee a smooth spring, but it gives both farmers and the supply chain the best possible chance of ensuring timely product availability when demand arrives.

Please speak to your Frontier advisor or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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