WHEAT 

• Selling opportunities 

UK wheat prices moved lower this week, dropping from last week’s peak. London futures topped out £8 per tonne above their mid-October contract low, presenting welcome selling opportunities for feed wheat. Milling premiums remained under pressure, with very limited outlets for Group 1 in the nearby months. Millers have switched to maximise their use of the high-quality UK wheat, replacing the imported German supplies that were essential to meet their needs last season. However, fresh buying and improved premium prospects are unlikely until we are well into the new year. 

Domestically, feed wheat prices remain elevated compared to other origins because of our small 2025 harvest. Sterling falling to a 29-month low adds a helping hand to UK wheat prices, but increasing reports of avian flu in parts of the country is concerning. 

• Price rally short lived 

World wheat prices were lower this week, with disappointment over the low volume of confirmed US wheat sales to China (coming to a total of just two cargoes) following trade talks between President Trump and President Xi. While initially seen as successful, the market needed to see more come from these to maintain positive momentum. 

The scale of the record speculative fund short that has been built in wheat futures in recent months left those markets vulnerable to a short covering rally, with potential for large scale wheat sales to China being the trigger on this occasion. Fundamentally, nothing has changed in terms of plentiful global wheat supply, and now funds have reduced their short, markets will now be less nervous and reactive to bullish surprises. 

• International buyers head to the Black Sea 

Argentina remains the cheapest world wheat available, priced as low as $209 on a FOB basis as harvest continues. Reaching 12% complete, there are reports of record yields and prospects for total output surpassing 23 million tonnes.  

A freight disadvantage sees recent trade to North Africa likely sourced from the Black Sea, even with values ranging from $225-227 FOB. Egypt bought 500,000 tonnes of wheat recently, with Jordan buying 60,000 tonnes and Algeria 120,000 tonnes this week, all Black Sea in origin. 

Russian wheat export estimates for November are put at 4.7 million tonnes, down from 5.1 million tonnes in October. While low, this is still 600,000 tonnes up on last November. It is likely Russian wheat exports will develop a stronger pace over the next six months compared to last year, which will challenge EU sales potential sales into North Africa. Official EU wheat export data, although catching up, still underscores actual EU wheat shipments. Brussels estimates 8.38 million tonnes shipped before 9th November this year, compared to 8.71 million tonnes last year. However, the exportable surplus is around 12 million tonnes up on the year. 

On the horizon this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is likely to return to work as the US government shutdown ends, having missed the November World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report due Friday. 

 

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BARLEY 

It was another quiet week in the barley market this week.  

More malting barley is continuing to find its way into the feed market as premiums remain historically low. Overall, malting demand remains a challenge in both Europe and the UK. This week, it was announced that a maltings in Scotland would be closing at the end of this calendar year, and it is anticipated more malting capacity is likely to close or be mothballed based on current demand.  

Looking ahead to crop ‘26, the spring barley area is anticipated down because of a significant increase in autumn sowing. Despite this, the previously mentioned demand concerns in both brewing and distilling sectors look set to continue into next season. 

The main feature of the UK market today is that barley is travelling from low-priced areas near to ports to premium areas such as the Southwest, Northwest and Yorkshire. Export prices have picked up this week, albeit from a very low base. Looking further afield, Eastern European and Black Sea feed barley values are currently close to low grade milling prices, and it is likely this parity is going to be unsustainable. Globally, the barley market could come under pressure this side of Christmas as the Australian crop (which is anticipated to be a record breaker) is getting underway, and the Argentinean crop (again anticipated to be very productive) will be starting in December. 

 

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OILSEEDS   

UK rapeseed markets firmed slightly over the past week, supported by steady Paris futures and a generally positive tone across oilseed markets. UK delivered-to-crush values have held above £420 per tonne depending on region and timing. Domestic crushers report limited nearby buying interest but there is some renewed interest for forward months as end consumers engage in buying.  

UK supply remains tight despite better yields this harvest. The national oilseed rape area is at its lowest level in more than 40 years, leaving overall production well below the ten-year average and maintaining the UK’s reliance on imports. Higher yields of around 3.7t/ha have helped ease availability but not enough to alter the tight balance. 

Globally, comfortable oilseed supplies, and weaker vegetable oil markets continue to cap price gains. Demand from the biodiesel sector has eased, while currency movements remain an important influence — a weaker sterling would lend support to domestic prices. 

In the short term, the market outlook is cautiously firm. Limited domestic supplies and import volumes underpin prices, but any rally is likely to be modest unless wider oilseed or energy markets strengthen. 

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FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN  

Several steps in the urea market over the last few weeks (including firming UK ammonium nitrate prices and restricted January to February availability) have caused renewed buying in the UK market. The same trend can be seen across Europe, so imported nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur materials have all stepped up.  

Given previous communication around tightness of nitrogen supply, ammonia cost and a renewed demand, it is likely we will see further steps up in pricing as we enter the first quarter of 2026 and begin the European nitrogen usage period. If buyers are specifically needing high quality nitrogen materials for use in early spring, they will need to look at securing soon given this season will now be about availability rather than price – within reason. 

UK importers appear to be incentivising earlier delivery options for November and December, with larger increases for January delivery anticipating a higher transport cost due to demand and prompt requirement. This is no surprise considering earlier reports of UK ports being near capacity and the diversion of planned vessels into the UK. 

The UK market is lagging on imported nitrogen products when compared to last year's statistics. This difference equates to approximately one month’s worth of UK ammonium nitrate production, or 15 new vessels of imported product. Neither of these will be possible between now and the use period starting, which could be in 40 days. 

• UAN  

Although urea has stepped up again along with ammonium nitrate and nitrogen sulphur solid compounds, there has been no change in liquid fertiliser pricing with all suppliers. This has puts a liquid-based system in the top three most cost-effective options when compared to an ammonium nitrate-based system. It won’t be a surprise if liquid suppliers pull terms with no warning over the coming weeks as they assess their covered position on raw material costs. 

• PKs/straights  

Focus has just shifted within certain UK regions on inputs for specific crops such as maize (both grain and forage), potatoes and beet (both sugar and forage). Buying patterns have been pulled forward on these crops due to challenges in spring 2025 caused by delays in product availability and/or deliveries to farm. This being so, input buyers for these crops are all looking at December and January delivery to ensure product is on farm and ready for use – they would rather be looking at it than looking for it. 

 

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Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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