WHEAT 

• Some futures price support 

Wheat futures found some support earlier this week albeit at low numbers, and short covering was encouraged by a brisk French export pace. The long holders in the near December Paris futures position seemed happy to stay that way, leaving the speculative shorts having to pay up to exit or roll their positions forward. This lifted the December contract back up above €190 and €5.50 above its contract low recorded on 1st October. 

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to a new contract low on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2020. US traders are increasingly concerned that the frosty front between the US and China in its ongoing trade battle will see US goods continue to be bypassed by China’s importers.  

The more encouraging trade picture in France has led FranceAgrMer, the French farm office, to lower its estimate for year-end wheat stocks. It remained confident France will ship 7.85 million tonnes outside of the EU and increased its French wheat exports within the EU from 6.74 million tonnes to 7.04 million tonnes. Coupled with an increase in on-farm feed use, French year-end stocks are expected to be down to 2.79 million tonnes from a burdensome 3.64 million tonnes previously.  

• Big crops get bigger 

The 2025 Russian wheat harvest estimates continue to increase, with the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies (IKAR) lifting its production figure to 87.8 million tonnes after seeing record yields in Siberia.  

The Russian government said that at the end of last week, there was still 10% of the wheat area to harvest. Large parts of Siberia are already under early snow, slowing harvest and meaning possible crop losses, but IKAR is doubtful it will seriously impact overall production. October Russian wheat export estimates range from 4.5 to 5 million tonnes, with prices seen about $3 down on the previous week. If the top end of the range is reached, that would still trail last year by over half a million tonnes.  

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) sits with a Russian wheat production estimate of 85 million tonnes, but the US government shut down has prevented the USDA from making its October updates, which should have been published last week. APK-Inform increased its Ukrainian wheat production estimate from 21.9 million tonnes to 22.4 million tonnes and trails the USDA estimate of 23 million tonnes.   

Tunisia bought 100,000 tonnes of wheat for November/December arrival, highlighting the major importer strategy of making only nearby purchases and leaving stunted demand. The low purchase price suggests the wheat will be of Black Sea origin.    

• French wheat competitive 

The official EU weekly wheat figures for 12th October were estimated at 5.5 million tonnes compared to 7.1 million tonnes last year. On the face of it, this continues to paint a bearish outlook of EU wheat, when the reality is a faster shipping pace ahead of last year. The full data for French and Bulgarian wheat is still missing. 

Morocco, unsurprisingly, is the top EU wheat importer so far, at 727,000 tonnes. Saudi Arabia is second at 637.5 tonnes, with Nigeria third despite being just over half that at 335,000 tonnes. It’s good to see the UK absent from the leader board as UK millers look to maximise the inclusion of UK wheat and their interest for German A wheat decreases. French wheat is looking competitive with its 11.5% protein on a FOB basis, $2-3 below Ukrainian, Russian and Romanian wheat. However, the world’s cheapest available 11.5% protein wheat on a FOB basis before freight is from Argentina, with its offers slipping below $200 for November. 

 

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BARLEY 

• Feed consumers revert to short covering 

 A combination of improved consumer demand, heavy global grain stocks, and weak malting barley demand is keeping feed barley prices relatively stable. 

Most consumers have now completed their bulk buying for the near term, with adequate coverage secured through to the end of the year. As a result, they have shifted back to a hand-to-mouth buying approach—closely monitoring usage and market trends, and only stepping in to cover any short-term needs as they arise 

• Subdued malting demand sees further barley priced as feed 

Malting barley markets remain subdued on both domestic and export fronts, leading to more malting-quality barley being redirected into feed markets in some parts of the UK. 

Full-spec malting barley from regions such as Hampshire and West Sussex is now pricing into the Southwest of England as feed. This is supported by some local demand for feed barley, driven by lower-than-usual forage availability. 

Despite this shift, the impact on overall markets is expected to be minimal. A significant carryover of malting barley stocks, combined with healthy malting barley supplies across the EU, means export markets are unlikely to feel much of a pull for UK supplies  

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OILSEED RAPE 

In the last week, rapeseed values have been trading in a £5-10 range but holding around the £415 delivered level to crush. Notably, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (DEFRA) provisional crop estimates were released, which suggest that production of  oilseed rape increased compared to 2024 by 36,000 tonnes on 18% smaller area in England, providing some underlying confidence in supply for the year despite still being heavily import reliant.   

Strong EU rapeseed yields are keeping a lid on values with Canadian and Australian prospects increasing as we progress through their respective harvests. European rapeseed plantings, including the UK, are set to be higher, with rapeseed one of the best paying crops available to the grower.   

Outside of rapeseed, oversupply and yield surprises of soybean in major producing regions remain a threat to further price gains and add to a third consecutive surplus year. Policy shifts, currency and volatile global trade policy continue to affect global oilseeds markets and are where we are seeing most of the price direction currently. The main one to watch out for is the trade dispute between Canada and China, of which there were some positive talks of a resolution this week that would reset global flows and reduce Canada’s reliance on the EU as an export destination. 

 

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PULSES 

• Feed beans 

UK bean values remain unchanged, despite the price between UK and Baltic beans widening. Baltic beans are now offered around €40/t cheaper than UK beans. However, even at these lower Baltic levels, it’s hard work to find UK buyers. Because of this It’s unlikely we will see any interest in UK FOB over the next few months.  

The domestic market continues to churn over, with no major volatility or demand. Homes have finished buying for the pre-Christmas period, with some bids around for the January to April position. The general feel is that there is going to be more beans held back for replanting, meaning supply and demand remains very balanced. It is hard to see what factors will cause any major swings in bean values.  

• Human consumption beans 

The opportunity to export UK beans to Egypt has now passed, with Australian beans being offered $100/t cheaper. However, the early new crop supply from the UK will sustain Egypt’s demand until the Australian beans arrive in the next few months. There are still good quality parcels of beans coming forward in the UK. However, any premiums will continue to diminish unless we see a decline in the quality of Australian beans, but this is highly unexpected.   

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FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN 

With drilling in the final stages of completion in most areas, many growers are starting to think about their fertiliser requirements. With that in mind, we’d like to draw your attention to the recent messaging from the AIC highlighting the challenges we may face here in the UK due to possible production cutbacks to ammonium nitrate here in the UK and over in Europe should farmer buying stall, or be delayed  until the spring. 

Generally, it has been another quiet week in the urea market other than the Indian tender news. 

The latest Indian tender closes this week with a target of 2 million tonnes being sought. It would seem that it has received approximately 25 offers in this tender, with bids from regular suppliers but no offering from China, unlike the last tender. There are approximately 3.66 million tonnes being offered, of which there will be some double counting, so it could be a few days before the final tonnage submitted is known. This appears to be bids from the Middle East and Egypt mainly, but also the Baltics and Nigeria. The Chinese export quota is being assessed by the relevant bodies at the end of this month - too late for this tender – however, it’s expected there will be no more exports from China.  

While Indian stocks of urea have built up slightly, it is considerably short of the quantities held this time last year so there will be further demand coming.  

The US market appears to have good demand coming for the last quarter of this year and into the first quarter of next year. Egyptian and Algerian prices have remained stable over the last week, with very little buying interest for their products and producers are content with current values. Both countries’ production rates are good, but demand from Europe is still slow. Here in the UK, there remains regional variations in the price of urea and stocks are generally low. However, there are vessels planned to come in, with indications of only half of what has been bought has arrived in the country so far.  

The ammonia price continues in an upward trend and European gas prices remain subdued. In contrast, it is still thought that as Europe enters the global market to buy its spring requirements prior to the January Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) deadline, we could see an uplift in prices for urea, nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur grades. The market remains on a knife-edge and will depend on when farmer buying comes. 

The Argus Fertiliser Europe conference next week in Lisbon may also provide some clarity to the market. 

• UAN 

As growers continue their winter cereal drilling and on-farm demand for UAN increases, suppliers continue to regularly review their stocks, shipping schedules and forecasted volumes to meet this season's demand.  

Current UAN values for delivery in spring 2026 remain unchanged. However, offered volumes are limited and growers with a known total quantity for the season are encouraged to cover some of their requirement ahead of any potential revision in terms and the spring usage period. Those with tank capacity this autumn can take advantage of a full portfolio of products for spot delivery, including NPKs for dispatch in late quarter four of this year and early quarter one of next. 

• PKs 

In the phosphates market, DAP is still showing signs of slight weakness in price globally. However, if demand picks up in other countries, this price dip may be short-term especially as the UK only relies on one supplier for this product.  Once current stocks are sold here in the UK, suppliers will not restock until nearer to usage, which could see availability issues coming down the line as we head to spring. The recent increase from producers in MOP prices hasn’t yet taken effect in farm values seen here in the UK, but we could see this very soon.  

 

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Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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