WHEAT

The wheat market remains focused on macro-level geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, where hopes for de-escalation were unsuccessful, as attacks on energy and grain infrastructure continued. Earlier optimism, sparked by diplomatic overtures between Russia and Ukraine, faded quickly as both sides set conditions for a ceasefire while strikes persisted. This ongoing instability is keeping a lid on grain exports from the Black Sea, underpinning global wheat prices.

Adding to the volatility, crude oil prices remain elevated due to disruptions in the Middle East, which is indirectly supporting grain markets as higher energy costs bolster biofuel-linked commodities like corn and soybeans.

On the supply side, Canada's wheat production is projected to fall by 11% this year to 36.1mmt (million metric tonnes), according to Statistics Canada. As rain complicates harvest and threatens grain quality. Meanwhile, the US winter wheat planting pace is lagging at 8% complete, below the five-year average of 12%. While the spring wheat harvest is nearly wrapped up at 93% complete. In France, FranceAgriMer, has cut its soft wheat export forecast due to increased feed demand from a weather-hit maize crop. Despite this, French wheat export activity remains subdued, with only a few vessels loading for North Africa this week.

In terms of demand, Algeria’s state grains agency purchased approximately 500,000mt (metric tonnes) of milling wheat in its latest tender, paying around $30/tonne more than a similar tender in early August. This highlights the ongoing shift in global trade flows as buyers seek alternatives to disrupted Black Sea supplies, with European origins like Romania and Bulgaria stepping in. Pakistan’s tender for 750,000mt of wheat further underscores robust demand in the global market, which is helping to offset concerns about sluggish export activity from some regions.

Price wise, MATIF December 2026 wheat futures rebounded to €244.50/tonne, up 1.5% yesterday, as strong tender activity and Black Sea supply disruptions supported prices. In the UK, London feed wheat futures also saw a slight uptick as buyers look to secure supplies ahead of potential further disruptions. London’s November 2026 wheat futures contract has spent the past week trading in the £208-£210/mt range.

Looking ahead, the market will keep a close watch on upcoming US export sales data and the pace of winter wheat planting. Continued Black Sea tensions, combined with tight supplies from Canada and logistical challenges in Europe, are likely to keep wheat markets supported in the near term. The focus will also remain on global tender activity, which has been a key driver of price strength this week.

BARLEY

• Lower global corn production opens door for increased barley demand

On Friday 11th September the Unites States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their September World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report (WASDE). The primary story for feed grains was undoubtedly a decline in global corn production by nearly 8mmt. The biggest downgrade being in the US corn crop, a drop in production of nearly 5.5mmt. Despite this heavy decline in global corn production, the report saw corn stocks only falling by around 2.5 million tonnes. Much of the production shortfall was offset in the figures by revisions downwards to corn consumption, with some demand shifting to barley as a result.

The WASDE report saw global barley production increasing by nearly 4mmt. Following a bumper 2025/26 crop, Australia look set to have a strong barley crop, as their 2026/27 production was raised by 3mmt. The Australian crop has got off to a strong start, despite El Niño fears. The increased Australian crop is likely to be the primary beneficiary of a 2mmt increase in global barley demand, as much of the demand increase sits with China and Saudi Arabia.

• The English barley area declined in 2026

Domestically, Defra updated their statistics on the English planted area for the 2026 harvest, confirming a 9.2% decrease in the barley area. At less than 673,000 hectares, England planted, the smallest barley area since 2012. While winter barley cropping saw a small increase year-on-year, spring barley area saw a significant decline of nearly 16.7% year-on-year. The decline in the spring barley area was likely driven largely by strong winter planting conditions in the autumn of 2025, as well as poor malting and distilling demand and therefore a lack of significant premiums over feed.

This update comes as growers begin sowing the 2027 crop, and many will be facing decisions as to what comes next as costs rise once more. Should winter sowing conditions remain good, as they are now, then the spring barley area may decline yet again. However, winter barley performed well in 2026 harvest, amid a difficult growing season. Outyielding the higher input winter wheat for many, as confirmed in the AHDB's harvest report (winter barley 6.9t/ha v winter wheat 6.8t/ha). Therefore, an increase in the winter barley area for 2027 crop may be on the cards, grown primarily for feed.

OSR

• Canadian canola crop and EU import flows

Statistics Canada has put the 2026 Canadian canola crop at around 22.1mmt, with harvest progress being closely watched following recent heavy rainfall across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The main concern is now harvest delays and potential quality losses rather than yield potential.

Canada is expected to have around 8mmt available for export, although domestic crush demand is increasing and China is regaining access to Canadian canola. EU imports of Canadian canola were around 870kt in 2025/26, with Canadian seed primarily destined for biofuel production rather than conventional food/feed crushing.

Meanwhile, Australia is forecasting a potentially large canola crop of around 7.8mmt, while Ukraine is also expecting around 3.8mmt. The timing and competitiveness of these export supplies into Europe will be important, particularly as the EU remains structurally dependent on imported rapeseed to meet its crushing requirements.

MATIF November rapeseed has been volatile this week, trading around the €545-554.00/mt, with movements closely linked to the wider canola, soyoil and crude oil markets.

FERTILISER

• Buying continues

Fertiliser purchasing for crop 2027 has continued at pace over the last week, with strong OSR emergence and continued cereal seed purchasing for planting over the coming weeks. Growers appear to recognise the risk associated with leaving purchasing to a ‘just in time’ delivery for crop 2027 and are now committing to their next purchase percentage of fertiliser inputs.

• Pricing steps

The end of last week saw the final UK urea importer step up levels, causing national levels to move over £1/kg N for autumn delivery. Elsewhere around the globe, China is expected to announce export quota volumes to the trade. This has done nothing to subdue pricing steps, with trades continuing to climb by $5–15. This is likely to cause UK urea offers to step again over the coming months.

Urea buyers need to keep an eye on contract offers, especially those that have extended offers into early 2027. This is firstly due to Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) cost implications and secondly due to the lack of control the end buyer has on arrival date in time for application.

All ammonium nitrate producers have had their focus on gas prices late last week, with pricing hitting and remaining at levels not seen since late 2022. The reaction has been relatively swift, with all imported AN and UK AN stepping levels for September/October delivery.

It is likely that ammonium nitrate pricing will remain firm through Q4 and into 2027, due to the above gas commentary and secondly due to market reports around physical ammonia (the first production step for ammonium nitrate) supply. Reports state that as many of the major ammonia producers are either offline for maintenance, both planned and unplanned, with others operating at significantly reduced product capacity.

The last pricing step that is yet to happen is within liquid fertiliser, which remains ‘discounted’ comparably to the market and is likely to be withdrawn by the end of the week

• Shipping and logistics

All businesses involved within supply chains that rely on shipping have had their focus on any further news around the Red Sea, more specifically the narrow point at the southern entry. Attacks on commercial vessels are causing vessel diversions and increased insurance costs, ultimately, potentially creating a significant increase in the cost of getting product on board.

Given the UK imports nearly all fertiliser materials apart from limited domestic production, this recent increase in vessel threat could cause delays in vessel arrival.

It is important to reinforce the national communication from the UK Fertiliser Farming Stakeholder Group (non-trade group) around the ongoing disruptions, low UK fertiliser stocks and concerns around the limited amount of time to process and deliver everything in time for usage.

We are encouraging farmers to review current stocks and move their percentage purchase to 75%+ where this is logistically possible.

Please speak to your Frontier advisor or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

This is a weekly report. Complete the form below to be added to the distribution for this market commentary.