WHEAT

• US wheat futures hit a three-month high

The end of last week saw the Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) wheat futures rally to their highest since 20th November last year. Buoyant US wheat and corn weekly export sales ahead of the long US holiday weekend seemed to be the trigger for funds to buy back around 15% of their short position. US weekly wheat export sales came in at 488,000 tonnes which took the total sold this season to 22.31 million tonnes, closing in on the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) total estimate at 24.49 million tonnes. Further support was added following the news that US weekly corn sales were over 2 million tonnes this week. Spillover strength from CBOT soybean futures have also played a part in helping wheat as they have gained around10% in value over the previous two weeks, an optimistic sign for US soybean sales to China.

• EU balance sheet heavy

Whilst US wheat exports look like they could beat the USDA estimate, the same can’t be said for the EU. This leaves more negativity for European grains, not helped by the robust euro in financial markets.

Analyst Expana updated its EU wheat balance sheet estimates this week, cutting its export expectations by 1.2 million tonnes down to 27.6 million tonnes. The challenge for European markets is the heavy carry out stock of 17.5 million tonnes that this leaves at the end of this season, which will be 6.1 million tonnes up on the year.

If crops across the EU mirror those in France, another large crop is likely. French 2026 weekly wheat crop condition ratings restarted on Friday after the winter break, and as of 9th February, 91% of the crop is at good/excellent. This compares very well with the previous three years at 73%, 68% and 84% good/excellent respectively.

While Morocco has been the primary French wheat export destination this season, prospects for a repeat trend look difficult in 2026-27. According to Morocco’s head of the wheat trading federation, plentiful winter rain sees estimates for the 2026 Moroccan wheat harvest rising to 5 million tonnes. This is more than double the 2025 crop of 2.4 million tonnes, significantly reducing the north African country’s import needs.

• Strong Russian exports and 2026 production prospects

Prospects for Russian 2026 wheat output are upbeat, with the Institute for Agriculture Market Studies (IKAR) increasing its estimate by 3 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes. This leaves 47.5 million tonnes available for export, up 1.5 million tonnes on this season’s potential according to IKAR (although the USDA predicts 44.5 million tonnes of wheat exports this season).

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production estimate for 2026 harvest by 2.1 million tonnes to 85.9 million tonnes. Russian export wheat prices are holding up because of difficult winter weather conditions hampering port activities and ship loading, with 12.5% protein offers for March rising $2 on the week to $233 FOB. None the less, analysts estimate between 3.1 - 3.3 million tonnes of wheat will be shipped this month, ahead of last February when only 1.9 million tonnes was shipped. The Ukrainian wheat export pace has fallen significantly under the stresses of Russian attacks, with only 160,000 tonnes of wheat moved during the first half of February. It seems inevitable that this will result in a significant build of year end stock. The lack of wheat available for world trade, however, is easily made up with supplies from other wheat exporters.

BARLEY

• Domestic feed buyers remain scarce

Bids have been scarce across livestock areas of the UK. Feed compounders fail to top up on their current demand which could have been expected with the cold, wet weather we have been having. Barley’s discount to wheat also keeps it unattractive, with Feed Mills adding more wheat into the ration, when diet specification allows. East Anglia, albeit at relatively low prices offers some selling opportunities, as a few vessels seek topping up tonnage.

• New crop feed barley buying interest apparent.

Even though feed barley prices are historically too narrow to feed wheat prices for crop ‘26 (currently a £11-13 per tonne discount), some demand has been evident while activity is muted from sellers This is due to the perceived poor return that current prices give compared to production costs However, once in the ground, this will be driven by market supply and demand ideas.

At the current price level, Barley looks too expensive against wheat not to lose demand in the feed compound ration for crop ‘26, especially if we get a normal forage season. As and when temperatures warm up, grass growth should be good this spring with the ample rain we have had.

• Malting barley growers contemplate size of nitrogen dosage

With the depressed distilling markets, traditional malting barley growers in Scotland are deciding whether to aim for a large pile of feed barley or a smaller tonnage of potential malting barley, depending which malting contracts are on offer.

In England, it seems as though traditional growers of malting varieties could aim for the brewing sector once more as, unlike the spirits sector, it hasn’t been as badly affected by a slowdown in demand.

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed markets posted a modest gain over the past week, with MATIF futures continuing to recover gradually from early in January. The broader vegetable oil complex remained relatively well supported, helped by firm energy markets and a generally steadier macroeconomic backdrop that provided a supportive environment for oilseed prices.

Trade flows between Canada and China remain a key driver of market sentiment. China’s trade settlement with Canada, combined with sustained demand for Canadian canola that has been exacerbated by a poor outlook on its domestic crop, continues to underpin rapeseed values. At the same time, the normalisation of trade flows following last year’s disruptions is helping to restore confidence in trade. This dynamic is positive for European rapeseed prices and given the EU’s structural reliance on imports, competing global demand is likely to limit downside risk.

Fund positioning has also continued to stabilise. Following heavy liquidation late last year, the market has seen additional commercial fund buying, helping futures move higher from previously oversold territory. Currency movements have again assisted domestic prices, with a weaker sterling value following poor UK economic data adding to UK on-farm prices.

Biofuel policy in the US has also added buoyancy to vegetable oil and seed markets as the US looks to increase the inclusion of plant-based feedstocks in the biofuel mix. While this is primarily beneficial for US soybeans, it also creates a market for Canadian canola, which has gone from having only one available import destination (Europe) to multiple others in the space of a month.

PULSES

• Old crop feed beans

UK FOB prices remain uncompetitive against Baltic origins, currently sitting at about £20 per tonne too high to generate meaningful export interest. Across Europe, domestic supply is proving sufficient amid subdued demand, particularly within the aquafeed sector, limiting export opportunities. On the domestic front, consumption continues to soften, with soya offered around £285 ex-farm, capping feed bean inclusion and overall demand. Market activity remains largely nearby focused. Farmer selling is broadly aligned with spot demand, resulting in a market that continues to tick over without clear direction.

• New crop feed beans

Domestic bids have eased marginally following initial buyer coverage. With early requirements secured, buyers are attempting to apply downward pressure to new crop values. Reports of increasing chocolate spot in winter beans are beginning to surface. While still early, any escalation could have implications for the human consumption export programme.

• Peas

Market dynamics remain largely unchanged since our previous update.

The recent agreement between China and Canada on tariffs is expected to see ample volumes of competitively priced, high-quality Canadian peas flowing into China. This significantly reduces the scope for UK peas to capture export demand. At present, UK export values are approximately $250 per tonne above Canadian origin, materially limiting competitiveness.

Domestically, some summer demand is expected from micronising outlets. But until these buyers actively enter the market, sellers remain limited in their options and are struggling to find interest.

It’s looking increasingly likely that the market will move into the 2026 crop year with carryover stocks, setting up a potentially heavy supply outlook and continued pressured on values. Without a weather scare, quality issue or sharp move in competing proteins, there’s little incentive for buyers to chase the market.

The UK micronising sector has a relatively fixed throughput capacity, and cannot absorb large surplus tonnage quickly. If export channels remain constrained (as discussed with Canadian competition into China), domestic outlets alone will struggle to clear the burdensome balance sheet.

FERTILISER 

Urea / AN 

As European buyers enter usage periods where possible, there has been a renewed interest in farm buying as growers assess stocks. This has done little to change market pricing, other than small steps upwards in prices based on the month of delivery. 

Focus should be applied to products that are ‘ready to move’ during a spring market, where farm buyers will be looking at utilising all on farm stock before buying additional material. Attention must be paid to availability as CF Nitram is likely to be sold out for early March very soon. Frontier differ slightly to this as we still have limited February terms available. Other offers from alternatives suppliers are already set for mid-March delivery for new orders, which is well into peak usage period. 

The UK fertiliser trade is constantly assessing what demand is likely for the remainder of the spring and part of this is a conversation around planned nitrogen rates. Growers would be advised to speak to their local Frontier representative on the regional up to date soil mineral nitrogen results to better support their spring nitrogen decisions within a season where product availability may well be limited. 

Liquid / UAN 

There is a pinch point within the liquid fertiliser sector where new tank production and installation is a little behind schedule, a challenge owed to increased demand of liquid fertiliser in UK agriculture and production challenges for new tanks. Following the adjustments of UAN pricing post-Christmas, there has been no change in pricing to date. However, a focus on ensuring full utilisation of farm storage to allow for reduced stress this spring. 

PKs / straights 

Much is the same as last week when it comes to phosphates, especially with some importers reporting that availability is most certainly April onwards before vessel arrival. Therefore, we would encourage all phosphate buyers for spring crops (such as maize, potatoes and sugar or fodder beet) to pull purchasing date forward if they haven’t already. For those growers that annually use polysulphate, ensure this is on farm in the coming weeks and applied at the earliest opportunity. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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