WHEAT 

• The USDA catch up 

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) got back on track and was able to publish its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), having missed the October report due to the prolonged US government shut down.  

We expected to see a bearish set of numbers given the higher production estimates made by other organisations over the past two months, and that is what we got. The USDA sees world production 13 million tonnes higher than they did in September at 829 million tonnes - a new record high and 28 million tonnes up on last year.  

There were increases in wheat estimates globally this week, with Argentina up to 22 million tonnes from 19.5 million tonnes, although other estimates are as high as 24.5 million tonnes. Other examples include Australia (from 34.5 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes), Canada (up to 37 million tonnes from 36 million), the EU (142.million tonnes up from 140 million), Russia (up to 86 million tonnes from 85 million), the US (up 1.5 million tonnes to 54 million), and Kazakhstan (up from 16 million tonnes to 18.9 million tonnes).   

Unfortunately, the UK bucked the trend, falling from 12.5 million tonnes down to 12 million tonnes, close to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) estimate at 11.8 million tonnes. World consumption increased by 4 million tonnes, but overall world stocks increased by over 7 million tonnes to 271.43 million tonnes, which is 10 million tonnes up on the year.    

• Wheat rides higher on soybeans 

The bearish USDA WASDE took markets lower on Friday although losses were perhaps limited with reports of Ukraine drones attacking the Russian port Novorossiysk. The grain export terminal escaped damage but oil exports from the facility were temporarily halted, and the episode served a reminder of the potential risks to Black Sea grain flows. 

The bearish impact of the USDA report was quickly overturned following positive comments from President Trump for futures US trade with China and specifically soybeans. China confirmed the purchase of 14 cargoes carrying almost 900,000 tonnes of US soybeans. The potential for US wheat sales to China triggered fund short covering, which rallied wheat futures prices and recovered post-USDA report losses.  

US wheat prices were further supported as the US government weekly crop progress reported restarted. Up to 16th of November, US winter wheat planting was 92% complete, behind last year’s 94% and the 95% average. The crop condition at 45% good/excellent was also behind last year’s 49%. While not an issue necessarily, recent private estimates were ahead at around 52% good/excellent. The corn harvest reached 91% complete by 16th November, behind 98% last year and the 94% average. 

• India upbeat 

India, the world’s second largest wheat producing country, is set to expand its wheat planted area by about 5%. Farmers are encouraged by high internal prices and high soil moisture with increased recent rainfall. India had a record high wheat crop this year at 117.5 million tonnes and stocks will be at their highest since 2008, just under 12 million tonnes. 

 

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BARLEY 

• UK farmer selling of feed barley absorbed by trade shorts 

Continued farm selling for either space or cash flow purposes has been easily absorbed by merchant’s short positions. There has been more interest in export cargoes out of the Southeast of England, as previous sellers to Ireland and Spain now look to cover  those earlier sales . Discounts to wheat are around £20 in East Anglia, £17 in Yorkshire and £10 in Devon. In Scotland, discounts to wheat are nearer £30/t as a result of the oversupply of feed barley, due to failed malting samples adding to the feed pile and the downturn in the distilling industry. 

• Southern Hemisphere feed barley supplies hit the market soon 

In the major cereal export zone of the Black Sea, feed barley prices have pushed up to levels of medium grade milling wheat as traders struggle to cover earlier sales to the Middle East, Libya and Tunisia, and demand keeps coming for some more.  

France has also had a good export campaign, with shipments of 60,000 tonnes to China filling in the gap between old crop and new crop Australian supplies, and France has already shipped 50% of its export target. These international barley prices may well cool down after Christmas as Australia completes a record barley harvest of potentially 15.5 million tonnes, with 20% harvested already. Argentina will also be harvesting a good barley crop of 5.5 million tonnes, with shipments starting mid-December. All in all, there is around 3 million tonnes more of export barley to sell than last year from south of the equator. 

• Lower demand for crop ‘25 malting barley in UK and EU, but crop ‘26 different. 

Brewing demand reductions, while nowhere near as large as the cuts in distilling demand, are lower than last year. This keeps maltsters away from buying more barley until they absolutely know they are going to need it, with this unlikely to change for some time.  

For crop ‘26, the AHDB early bird survey suggests a 15% drop in the spring barley area in the UK. There will also be a lower area planted across the EU as more winter cereals were sown. We are starting to see some tentative buying interest both domestically and on the continent for the 2026 harvest season, however initial early bids aren't attracting farmers to commit forward right now. . 

 

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OILSEEDS   

Rapeseed values have continued to improve this week, with domestic seed supply in Europe still slow to come forward due to slow farmer selling. In combination with good margins, this is allowing crushers to pay more for seed. Trade policy and commitments to volume are watch points going forward, with tariffs and traded volumes between the US, Canada and China key price drivers for global prices.  

The Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) in the EU is seen as a considerable long-term bullish factor for rapeseed oil demand in Europe, improving demand from the biodiesel sector. The new programme, which sets a target for Europe to increase the share of renewable energy in its overall energy mix to at least 42.5% by 2030, is set to come in on January 1st 2026, although some are pushing for a delay. Additionally, in Europe the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) legislation has been pushed back for another year, which will remove some support for domestic oilmeals as a wider origin of soya will still be allowed into the area.  

In the UK, a considerably weaker sterling has added around £5 to oilseed prices since the middle of October. Delivered values at the crush are a shade over £430, which is back to contract highs for the marketing year. 

 

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PULSES 

Bean markets remain quiet this week, with very little change in recent weeks. 

The domestic feed market is almost non-existent. Winter rations have been formulated excluding beans, given they are still £25/t too expensive compared to other protein sources. The news this week that the EUDR has been pushed back to 2027 will not help this, as soya meal prices should start to weaken. There has been little forward buying in the poultry markets, meaning post-Christmas bids remain subdued.  

The human consumption market feels finished for the season and with the crop at nearly a million tonnes in Australia, these beans are being offered aggressively to Egypt. 

 

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FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN 

With fewer than six full delivery weeks remaining before Christmas, the fertiliser supply chain is once again under pressure. Logistics are tightening, and the challenges ahead resemble the strains we usually associate with spring. 

Over the weekend of 14th November, geopolitical influences added further complexity as the United States scrapped tariffs on imports on a list of fertiliser products. This move could reopen the US market for major producers, diverting supply away from Europe at a time when demand here is critical. Combined with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe, which has already placed storage space at a premium, the outlook for timely supply is becoming increasingly constrained. 

Closer to home, the UK market has seen further turbulence. CF withdrew from the market last week following a series of nitrogen price increases across Europe, with both LAT and Yara moving higher on AN and CAN. CF is expected to return this week, though with only limited January supply available and more likely a February offer now. 

On the urea front, the market remains subdued following recent increases in farm values. As highlighted in previous editions of Frontrunner, a combination of factors pushed granular urea prices up by around £30/t. Since then, many buyers have either explored alternative products or chosen to sit out of the market altogether. Looking ahead, India is expected to retender shortly for 2.5 million tonnes - a significant volume that could add further pressure to an already complex global supply chain. 

Adding to the uncertainty, recent reports highlight potential strike action at the Achema plant in Lithuania. This facility has historically supplied well over 100,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate into the UK market, meaning any disruption there would be felt directly by domestic buyers. It is yet another complication at a time when stability is most needed. 

• UAN 

As the delivery window for autumn tank fill narrows, growers with available on-farm storage are encouraged to take advantage of current spot delivery opportunities. Securing product now will ensure tanks are full ahead of the spring usage period. This applies across the full portfolio of nitrogen grades (N and N/S), as well as NP and NPK compounds available for delivery at the beginning of 2026.  

The arrival of wet, cold wintry conditions across much of the UK has largely brought winter cereal drilling to a close. With cropping plans now confirmed, growers continue to have access to a range of products for spring 2026 delivery at values that remain unchanged since their release earlier this autumn. Current UAN pricing, both for spot and forward spring delivery, continues to offer competitive value relative to alternative solid AN based systems. However, UAN manufacturers and suppliers are monitoring stock levels closely and scheduling vessel arrivals in line with demand. Supply volumes remain limited and, as observed within the solid sector, replacement values are expected to be higher than those currently available in the market.  

We recommend growers review their requirements promptly to secure product at today’s values and ensuring supply throughout the spring season. 

• PKs/Straights 

Recent developments in the United States regarding tariff rates are set to reshape the global fertiliser landscape, with direct implications for phosphates (TSP and DAP) and potash (MOP). DAP has shown notable weakness in recent weeks, but this trend could reverse quickly depending on shifts in US demand. Farmers’ purchasing decisions, influenced by the new tariff environment, will be a key driver of price direction. 

MOP availability is also expected to change as trade flows adjust in response to US farmers’ requirements. This shift could alter supply patterns in other regions, creating ripple effects across the wider PK market. Importantly, the tariff changes are not limited to phosphates and potash, many other fertiliser products may experience volatility as global supply chains re-balance to meet shifting demand patterns. 

As always, Frontier remains committed to keeping you informed of market developments and their potential impact on your business, with support from our advisors available when needed. 

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Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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