WHEAT

• Choppy markets  

While there seemed no reason for it - and with no change in the bearish wheat market fundamentals - US wheat futures moved sharply higher on Friday and pulled other markets upwards with them.

The speculative funds were keen buyers and perhaps growing geopolitical issues ahead of the long US weekend made them nervous. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) sell-off earlier in the week provided an opportunity for buyers to take cover at prices not far from contract lows. With US markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, world trade proved notable. However, European futures were flat, with France and Germany missing out. Saudi Arabia bought 907,000 tonnes for April and May at prices ranging from $258.50 to $264.84 at four different ports, including freight and costs. This was expected to be sourced from the Black Sea with Romanian, Bulgarian, and Russian wheat making up the bulk.

 Algeria, historically supplied with French wheat, bought an estimated 720,000 tonnes at around $253 to $254, including freight and costs. It was reported the supply will most likely be from Argentina given the low prices and flexibility and discounts for lower protein.  

Russian wheat prices were reported higher, up $2.50 on the week to $227.50 with strong demand whilst Black Sea ports suffered poor weather conditions. This led SovEcon to lower its Russian January wheat export estimate to 3 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. SovEcon also said widespread snow cover had prevented winter wheat crop damage from recent severe frosts. The Russian Agriculture Minister, Oksana Lut, said snowfall in southern Russia had not damaged winter crops, which remain in good condition. She also said she expected the Russian 2026 grain harvest to exceed last year’s crop but gave no figures.

•  2026 wheat crop weather watch 

Northern Hemisphere 2026 wheat production potential is being talked up.  However, a weather watch in Australia found a forecast for lower-than-average rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures. If these conditions persist, its 2026-27 wheat output potential will fall below this season’s 37 million tonnes.

The US Southern Plains have seen an expanded drought area for the winter wheat, but with snow forecast for the end of this week followed by a blast of extreme cold, snow cover could provide some insulation for those crops. However, there are still some vulnerable fields in areas like Nebraska.

• Geopolitics upsets foreign exchange markets

Geopolitics and President Trump’s voiced intentions for Greenland caused a diplomatic rift between the US and the EU, triggering a spell of dollar weakness and euro strength. On Tuesday, the euro gained almost 1% at its peak, regaining all the losses made against the green back in the new year. EU wheat exporters needed help, and this euro strength makes it even harder for EU wheat to compete for world trade.

Weekly EU wheat exports up to 15th January reached 11.8 million tonnes, compared to 12 million tonnes last year. Although data is incomplete for the past two years, it seems unlikely that corrections will be sufficient for analysts’ export surplus estimates, which range between 28 and 30 million tonnes.

US weekly wheat export inspections up to 15th January were 392,611 tonnes, 75,000 tonnes up from last week and up 131,000 tonnes from last year. This takes the total wheat shipped to just short of 16 million tonnes, leaving another 8.5 million tonnes still needing to be shipped before the end of the season in order to reach the USDA export estimate.

BARLEY

• Old crop feed demand softens

Despite livestock markets remaining strong, UK consumer demand for feed barley is beginning to show signs of a decline given barley's narrow discount compared to wheat. In the Southwest of England, the discount has been below £10 for much of the season, but elsewhere it has shrunk from over £20 to around £10. Despite signs of declining consumer demand, barley remains a preferred option for feeding on farm. However, there are several reports of cattle being turned out to graze during drier days already, and the expectation is that many will turn animals out fully at the earliest opportunity given low forage stocks. With very little upward incentive in the market, it is recommended that growers review their remaining stocks on farm and contact their Frontier representative to discuss the spot and forward markets available.

• New crop remains quiet for both feed and malting

Malting markets remain quiet on both old crop and new crop. For crop '26, maltsters are in no hurry given existing subdued demand and the prospect of many crop ‘25 stocks running deep into the new season. Similarly, the feed market remains mostly illiquid, with consumer interest limited due to feed barley's tight discount to wheat (at around £10) and farmers mostly disinterested in selling at this stage. It is looking like barley may have a turbulent year ahead given a smaller crop and an unknown demand dynamic. With this in mind, it is worth exploring Frontier's pools as a marketing option to manage your risk. Our pools are open until 31st of January, so please speak to your Frontier rep to discuss options or visit our website to learn more about current opportunities.

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed markets have moved higher over the past week, with outlooks looking up after the market weakness reported at the end of last year. MATIF futures in Europe moved higher, supported by a combination of global trade talks, firmer energy markets, and an improved confidence across the wider vegetable oil complex.

Optimism has largely come from trade talks between Canada and China, where a reduction in existing tariffs has improved demand sentiment. While volumes remain limited at this stage, the prospect of easing trade tensions is seen as constructive for Canadian demand and in return European rapeseed, where import availability is limited.

Support has also come from strength in crude oil and renewed talks of increased quotas in US biofuel policy. Vegetable oil markets are mixed overall, but the tone is sufficient to encourage fund buying in rapeseed after prices had become oversold. Currency movements also played a role, with a weak pound sterling offering additional price support in domestic terms.

Physical markets have followed futures higher, though farmer selling remains measured. In the UK and parts of northern Europe, growers appear content to wait for further clarity on price direction, particularly given ongoing uncertainty around global oilseed supply and demand. Crushers continue to work hard to source nearby requirements but have shown limited urgency beyond short-term coverage when more imported supplies are available.

Despite the firmer tone, underlying fundamentals continue to cap upside potential. Global oilseed supplies remain ample, and expectations of large crops elsewhere in the complex continue to act as a restraining influence. As a result, the market appears supported at the moment,  but still lacks a strong fundamental catalyst for a sustained rally.

PULSES

• Feed beans

The value of sterling remains relatively strong, continuing to suppress export demand. Baltic bean values have softened again, widening export parity further. Domestic demand remains thin and strictly spot-led, with only small volumes trading to cover nearby short positions rather than genuine forward buying.

While prices are currently holding steady, this appears more a function of limited selling than improving demand, leaving the market vulnerable to softer values if pressure builds.

• Peas

The recent agreement between China and Canada on tariffs is expected to result in ample volumes of competitively priced and high-quality Canadian peas flowing into China, significantly reducing the scope for UK peas to capture export demand.

Domestically, some summer demand is expected from micronising outlets, but until these buyers actively enter the market, sellers remain limited in their options and are struggling to find interest.

It increasingly looks likely that the market will move into the 2026 crop year with carryover stocks, setting up a potentially heavy supply position and continued pressured on values.

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

While there is still uncertainty in the market due to ongoing geopolitical factors, urea prices have firmed since quarter four of 2025 and are stable as we come to the end of January. As a result, suppliers are understandably monitoring markets closely.  Despite continued unrest and volatility, demand from the farmgate remains subdued due to farm economics.  However, it is worth considering any outstanding requirements for untreated urea and urea sulphur grades to ensure timely delivery of products onto farm to conform with the urea legislation in England.

In Europe, gas prices have been seasonably low up until last week, when values reached around €36, compared to €26 in late 2025 /early 2026. This has created volatility, cautiousness, and even the withdrawal of terms, maintaining the firm sentiment in nitrogen markets and underpinning pricing levels across Europe.

Last week’s realignment in the home-produced UK CF Nitram value is still available, albeit with limited tonnage and the risk it could be withdrawn at any time. Once the February delivery terms are withdrawn, prices will step up by about £10 per tonne in March. Please enquire as Frontier can offer delivery from January through to March.

• Liquid/UAN

With spring usage around the corner, UK UAN suppliers continue to carefully manage their stocks and vessel schedules to ensure continuity of supply through the season. In recent weeks, several sites have received and discharged vessels, leaving port side storage well stocked. UAN users continue to have access to a full portfolio of N and NS grades for growers either with capacity for product to be delivered into on farm storage or those with additional requirements for the season considering cropping changes in recent months. Current UAN terms for delivery in the spring period offer growers competitive value when compared to alternative AN based solid system. Cereal, root or forage growers looking for quality NP and NPK products for placement or broadcast application have access to 100% water soluble products for delivery in either bulk or IBCs.

• PKs/straights

As demand begins to increase, inevitably so will prices. This is the expected direction of travel for both phosphate, potash and associated PKs/NPKs.  While price may be the driver (or indeed the blocker) for purchasing decisions, other contributing factors to consider are changes to trade flows, arrival of vessels to the UK affecting availability of raw materials, and the finished product in a bag.

Several factors have changed buying patterns and the UK witnessed a later-than-normal uptick in purchasing leading to an extremely condensed period in spring ’25. This meant vessels were delayed, and therefore delivery of product onto farm arrived ‘just in time’(something to consider in case patterns repeat this spring). Many supplier’s order books are already filling up for February delivery, pushing availability into March and limiting options. It is advised to discuss your options with your representative, as Frontier can offer good quality PK and NPK compounds where stocks are readily available.

Please speak your Frontier representative to help manage your risk by discussing product options available to you, along with market updates, timing of purchase and delivery options for all your outstanding requirements.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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