WHEAT

Wheat futures markets have been erratic in recent days but have moved back up towards their recent highs. Bearish old crop fundamentals are dragging on the bullish uncertainty of the developments in the Middle Eastern war and expanding drought impacting on US winter wheat.

Markets were firm early last Friday trading higher through into the early afternoon when geopolitics again played a notable role. Iran said the Strait would be open to all shipping and crude dropped like a stone on the news. It closed 9% down and brought all grains and oilseeds down with it. Subsequent fall out between the US and Iran leaves a strangle hold on shipping, with crude moving higher again.

US winter wheat crop condition dropped 4 points on the week to 19th April at 30% ‘good/excellent’ and is notably down from last year’s 45% ‘good/excellent’, as the drought conditions bite harder. Primary winter wheat producing state Kansas saw their crop drop from 32% to just 24% ‘good/excellent’. Corn planting reached 11% done in line with last year. There is rain forecast, even for the driest regions, which is needed for wheat and could delay corn planting.

US weekly wheat export inspections to 20th April came in at a chunky 518,141 tonnes. This is the highest for several weeks and takes the cumulative shipped to 21.490 million tonnes (mmt) and almost exactly 3mmt to go to meet the United Stated Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate for this season’s exportable surplus 24.5mmt.  With 6 weeks of the season left if this pace can be maintained then the estimate will be met. Given the world turmoil and questions for the 2026 US wheat crop there is no reason to think buyers of US wheat will not be keen to take old crop with the prospects for dearer new crop coming their way.

SovEcon latest Russian wheat export estimates put April 4mmt up, notably from last April 2.4mmt. The cumulative estimate for the season to the end of April is now at 38.6mmt. This leaves only 6mmt each to ship in May and June to reach the USDA Russian wheat exportable surplus estimate of 44.5mmt. The USDA see Russian wheat stocks 4.4mmt up on the year forming part of the global heavy stock carry out but this might be reduced, if the current export pace is maintained. Russian 2026 wheat production estimates continue to climb, despite recent cold weather delaying spring planting. What was described as favourable weather led SovEcon analysts to increase their 2026 Russian wheat production estimate by 2.1mmt on previous to 89.7mmt. The Russian Agricultural Ministry said the delayed spring drilling should have no impact on the overall harvest.

Latest EU weekly wheat export estimates climbed to the cumulative total year to date 19.01mmt compared with 17.62mmt last year. Mindful of comments made yesterday about Morocco and their cereal harvest for 2026 more than doubling on 2025, Morocco is top taker of EU wheat so far at 2.856mmt with next in line Egypt 1.76mmt. Morocco where the Agricultural Minister said their cereals production would double to 9 million tonnes from 3.9mmt in 2025.

India approved an additional 2.5mmt wheat for export to ‘support farmers and stabilise markets’ taking the total quota up to 5mmt. India will produce a record 120.21mmt according to their government estimates and market prices are sitting down at the government set floor price.

The changing picture for longer term world wheat production resulting from concerns over supplies and costs of fuel and fertiliser illustrated by Australian farmers. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said farmers would switch from wheat to canola which could see the wheat planted area drop by 14%.

Argentina similar with urea cost at $1000/t and an annual use of circa 2.5 million tonnes farmers are assessing their options. Either use less fertiliser or abandon planting plans altogether. This season, Argentina’s wheat production was a record at 29.5mmt and repeating anything like that looks extremely unlikely.

BARLEY

• Northern English markets supported for old crop, export markets fading

Nearby domestic feed markets into the Northwest of England and North Yorkshire are seeing support as consumers enter the market for top-ups, particularly against their summer feed rations (May to September). This support in the domestic market is despite a quiet export market driven by question marks over existing and further demand and a strengthening pound on the week. The UK has exported feed barley to Ireland for much of the season, and earlier on to Spain and Portugal. But cheaper alternatives entering the market from the Northern EU and own-country domestic supplies are pricing the UK out of the market for now. It would seem likely that any remaining old crop stocks are bound to make their way into domestic homes rather than leave the UK shores.

• Nearby malting demand subdued, interest further forward

Old crop malting demand continues to be subdued and remains the case running deep into new crop as far forward as December 2026 amid numerous carryover stocks. Where buyers are in the market for old crop malting, premiums over feed are small and volumes tend to be too. However, nervousness is clearly entering the market as dry conditions in England and Western Europe affect market sentiment and raise concerns for the recently sown spring barley crop. With no significant rain forecast for many for the next week to a fortnight, buyers are returning to the market to seek cover.

• New crop feed barley lacking liquidity

Despite strong winter crop conditions and abundant global supplies in theory capping upside sentiment in the market, new crop feed barley markets are edging higher, nonetheless. On-farm sentiment, driven by high input costs and (as mentioned above) a lack of rainfall, is the main upside driver. Weather conditions through the spring remain the key short-term watchpoint, while further ahead planting intentions into 2027 crop will emerge as a longer-term point of interest.

OSR

It was a week of two halves for rapeseed. Paris futures pushed higher mid-week before giving background on Friday. This leaves November 26, as the main reference contract, as May-26 approaches its final trading days ending the week slightly lower overall. The market is not in a clear trend either way right now and that uncertainty is likely to persist.

If you want to understand where rapeseed is heading, watch crude oil. The Middle East ceasefire announcement on Friday sent Brent sharply lower, ending the week down over 5% at $90.38/barrel. That pulled rapeseed back with it. By Monday morning, crude had bounced back towards $95/barrel after weekend tensions flared again, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and the ceasefire due to expire mid-week. Until the situation stabilises, expect rapeseed to keep tracking every headline out of the Middle East.

The supply side is not offering much support for new crop prices. German cooperatives have edged their winter rapeseed forecast up to 4.15 million tonnes (mt), around 4.5% above last year's output while France is reporting a rapeseed area 9% larger than 2025. A bigger European crop is not what the market needs if it is going to push higher into harvest.

Western Australia's farming body Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) is forecasting a canola area for 2026/27 that would be the second largest on record, with growers shifting acres away from wheat and towards canola, barley and oats in response to high input costs. More canola from Australia adds to the global supply picture, even if it won't hit the market until later in the year.

UK rapeseed imports from July 2025 to February 2026 were up 3% year-on-year at 665 kiloton (Kt) a reminder that domestic crush capacity continues to draw in seed from the continent regardless of price direction.

The market is being driven entirely by external factors, energy prices and geopolitics, rather than anything fundamental to UK or European rapeseed supply and demand. New crop signals are mildly bearish with larger European and Australian areas in prospect. If crude oil finds a floor and tensions ease, rapeseed could drift lower. Any escalation in the Middle East could quickly reverse that. It is not a market that rewards sitting on the fence for too long, but equally there is no strong case to rush either way right now.

FERTILISER

• Energy markets and impacts on fertiliser production and availability

Global fertiliser markets remain under pressure, with risk levels elevated and supply chains increasingly fragile. Continued disruption in the Middle East, including the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is restricting shipping routes and driving up freight and insurance costs. Reports suggest around 800 vessels are currently awaiting passage, and even brief reopening’s offer little certainty for ship owners or fertiliser markets. This disruption is being compounded by production losses following Ukrainian drone strikes on multiple Russian fertiliser production facilities, with sources reporting at least six plants affected in recent months, including major ammonium nitrate and ammonia sites. These strikes have further distorted global trade flows and constrained available supply.

Energy markets remain volatile, creating a yo‑yo effect on costs and market sentiment. Brent crude is holding close to $98/barrel, while European gas prices remain firm at approximately €42/MWh (values correct at time of going to press). Ammonia prices remain elevated, with supply tight across global markets.

The UK is now facing much stronger global competition for fertiliser, particularly from Europe, in a shrinking international market driven by reduced production.

• The here and now

• India has returned to the market with a 2.5 million tonne urea tender and reports suggest they have confirmed bids for the full 2.5mt. Middle East participation has been limited, aside from Oman, with tonnage largely sourced from Russia, the Baltics and Africa.

• First new‑season urea offers are now emerging in the UK. Values are broadly in line with current market levels, but availability is limited and volumes are small. Some offers relate to product already in the UK from spring cargo arrivals.

• Imported AN and nitrogen‑sulphur offers for the new season have appeared only in small volumes. Supply remains tight and buying interest slow. Nitrogen‑sulphur product choice should be managed carefully to ensure product remains in good condition for application almost 10 months from now.

• CF has released May and June Nitram pricing, showing a slight premium to previous levels.

• We will have terms for the summer tank-fill for liquid which will be competitive- we are in discussions with suppliers on this as they assess the markets.

• Sulphur availability is once again constrained, driven by Middle East disruption.

• DAP remains in short supply following production cutbacks, shipping delays, limited sulphuric acid availability and high ammonia prices needed to produce DAP.

• MOP remains stable but is gradually firming, supported by strong US demand, tightening supply and higher freight costs.

• Frontier has a full portfolio of liquid grades available for spot delivery.

• Current UAN applications requires the use of a urease inhibitor especially with the weather conditions so please speak to your Frontier advisor about Limus Perform.

• Frontier has liquid foliar products available so once again please speak to your Frontier contact for options.

• Production risks and tightening supply

Across the European and UK nitrogen markets, producers are increasingly reporting low engagement at the farm gate, as growers delay purchasing decisions amid high prices and ongoing volatility. In response, key producers with significant influence over the UK supply chain are reassessing production schedules and operating rates, increasing the risk that product may not be available later in the season when demand returns. There is a possibility that unless there is farmgate buying throughout the rest of spring and into summer we could see production curtailed at some fertiliser producing factories throughout Europe and beyond.

This marks a critical shift. Reduced engagement discourages production, tightens supply, and increases the likelihood that availability, rather than price, becomes the primary constraint. Periods of reduced or even no availability are now increasingly likely.

When demand does return, it is likely to do so into a tighter market, meaning prices are likely to rise alongside reduced availability. Once production is slowed or curtailed, output cannot be restarted quickly, so lost tonnes are difficult to recover. In the UK specifically, any tonnage lost due to breaks in ammonium nitrate production is lost for the season.

• Looking ahead - act early, reduce risk

Volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the market. The UK’s reliance on imports leaves supplies highly exposed to energy markets, geopolitics and shipping disruption.

The priority now is risk management, not price:

• Many growers are seeking reassurance and are considering spreading risk by purchasing a proportion of next years’ physical requirements where cashflow allows.

• Flexi‑N provides an alternative risk management approach, with delayed payment and three scheme options offering a variety of delivery choices. Talk to your Frontier contact for more information.

• Even with a fully open Strait of Hormuz supply will not return to normal for several months and will take time for markets to recover which means that fertiliser availability will remain tight in supply for the foreseeable.

UK availability is limited, with the majority of products and raw materials imported and waiting reduces choice, flexibility and control, and increases exposure to sudden market shocks. Early decision‑making provides certainty, protects planning, and keeps options open.

Much will depend on developments in the Middle East and whether the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. What is clear, however, is that inaction increases risk.