WHEAT 

• US wheat futures at multi month highs  

Weather and geopolitical concerns have triggered a spell of speculative short covering in the wheat futures markets in recent days. Managed money traders’ assertive buying took the Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) wheat futures to its highest price level since the end of July last year and a near 15% appreciation in value since the market’s contract low, which was struck on the first trading of 2026. 

The uncertainty resulting from failed peace talks last week between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with a building threat of US military resource to Iran ahead of talks between the two countries in Geneva this week, was said to have encouraged speculative buying.  

From a fundamental point of view there is uncertainty over the impact of February’s severe cold on 2026 wheat crop potential in the Black Sea region. Concerns in the US Southern Plains come in the form of dryness and high winds, and in the EU a deterioration of the French 2026 wheat crop because of prolonged heavy rain and where ratings fell by 3 points down to 88% good/excellent.  

The Ukrainian state weather forecaster said that record low temperatures in February and frozen ground conditions had delayed the start of spring drilling which began 3rd February last year, but had not damaged Ukraine’s winter drilled crops. Ukraine is harvesting a 2026 wheat crop up 2.9% on 2025 at 23.1 million tonnes, with a higher planted area but likely lower yield according to the Economy Minister. 

• Mixed export prospects 

EU wheat exports moved ahead of last year’s pace, officially reaching 15.38 million tonnes by 22nd February, compared to 14 million tonnes in the same period last year. This makes the prospects of achieving the EU 2025-26 wheat export estimates of 27.8 million tonnes although these had been revised lower. This is 3 million tonnes up on the year, but will see end season wheat stocks rise by about 6 million tonnes on the year.  

US weekly wheat export inspections were a healthy 535,113 tonnes, which takes the cumulative amount shipped this season to 18.243 million tonnes compared to 15.278 million last year. The US shipped a total of 22.48 million tonnes in 2025 so if that pace is mirrored this season, total US wheat exports could reach 15.2 million tonnes - 700,000 tonnes above the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate.  

US year-end wheat stocks according to the USDA will be up 2 million tonnes on the year to 25.34 million tonnes, which would be 7 million tonnes up on the year prior to that and 10 million tonnes above the end of 2022-23.  

Ukraine wheat exports reached only 8.82 million tonnes compared to 11.71 million tonnes at the same time last year which, without a dramatic increase in shipments, will result in a notable stock build. Ukraine is still expected to ship 17.6 million tonnes of wheat by the end of the season, which means another 9 million tonnes to ship in four months. It has taken almost eight months so far to ship less than half of that.  

Algeria bought what was described as several hundred thousand tonnes of wheat, but the country’s state grain agency, OAIC, did not confirm details. Prices are reported to be around $259-260, including freight around $5 up on the previous purchase. The wheat is optional origin but expected to be mostly Black Sea, with traditional supplier France thought again to be excluded. 

BARLEY 

It has been a relatively quiet week in the barley market. Old crop feed barley buying interest has been muted, especially into the southwest, with the discount between wheat and barley too narrow to entice buyers. UK feed barley is lacking competitiveness against other origins, putting pressure on domestic values. Looking forward to new crop, there has been limited cover taken by domestic compounders in the week, but most have sat out with wheat futures firming and generally both buyers and sellers remain absent.  

Malting barley markets remain depressing, with virtually no old crop demand and any premiums negligible or non-existent in most geographies. Despite a smaller UK spring barley area for crop ‘26, the Maltster’s Association of Great Britain (MAGB) is indicating a reduction of around 500,000 tonnes of malting barley being required domestically year on year, with Scotland particularly challenged with the well-publicised issues in the distilling industry. Ultimately, spring weather will be critical for both the yield and quality of spring barley crops. Today, demand challenges mean that maltsters can afford a large percentage of the crop to fail and still have ample supplies, keeping forward premiums modest. 

OILSEEDS  

Rapeseed markets were cautiously firmer again over the past week, with MATIF futures continuing to recover and briefly testing higher resistance levels before consolidating. Strength across the wider vegetable oil complex continued to lend support, underpinned by steady energy markets and a generally constructive macro tone. That said, gains were measured rather than aggressive, with the market still lacking a decisive fundamental trigger. 

Trade flows between Canada and China remain central to oilseed sentiment, with continued Chinese interest in Canadian canola reinforcing the view that global trade patterns are recalibrating after last year’s disruption. This remains supportive for European rapeseed values, particularly given the EU’s structural import requirement and ongoing concerns around Chinese rapeseed crop conditions. The European balance sheet remains relatively tight, leaving the market sensitive to any disruption in import pace. 

Positioning has continued to normalise. After the heavy fund liquidation seen late last year, commercial and speculative buying has helped sustain the recovery from oversold territory. Currency moves were supportive domestically, with sterling firming over the week and improving the translation of futures strength into UK farmgate prices. 

US biofuel policy developments also remain supportive for the oilseed complex. Increased inclusion of plant-based feedstocks in renewable diesel programmes is positive for US soybeans, but it broadens export optionality for Canadian canola, indirectly underpinning global rapeseed values. 

FERTILISER 

• Urea / AN  

It finally feels like the weather is starting to turn, with temperatures lifting. Applications are getting underway in parts of the country, although some areas still need a few more dry days before they can get on the land, but at least things are moving in the right direction. 

That said, March is only a few days away, and the fertiliser industry is still talking about the lack of demand across the UK and Europe. The latter is already relying heavily on imported product because of the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) rules that came into effect the beginning of this year, as suppliers planned ahead and brought in good stocks during December of 2025. 

The same hasn’t happened to the same extent in the UK. Strong European demand late last year meant raw materials were shipped into Europe rather than the UK. Supplies from CF Fertilisers and Yara are steady, but no higher than last year, so a late rush for product will be a real challenge - especially given how delayed the season already is. CF Fertilisers is now working on the second half of March as the next available delivery period, but they won’t commit to the third week – only stating that it will be on a seller’s‑option basis. That may be manageable in some areas given the prolonged wet weather, but once conditions improve everywhere, demand will shift to immediate‑use products rather than waiting up to two weeks for supply. 

In other news, India has confirmed just under 1.3 million tonnes of fertiliser in its latest buying tender for delivery by the end of March. That’s slightly less than the 1.5 million tonnes they were aiming for, but still a bit more than the market expected earlier. Most of the product looks to be coming from the Middle East and the Baltic, with smaller volumes from Southeast Asia. Urea supply in the UK remains sticky, with slow production, bagging, and delivery adding to potential crop application delays. 

Please speak to your Frontier contact for the latest on availability of AN, urea and NS grades. 

• UAN 

Liquid fertiliser availability for spring applications remains favourable. Operationally, suppliers are both well stocked across their portside facilities and well prepared for the busy spring season’s delivery window.  

With recent settled spells allowing growers in some regions to make a tentative start with applications, and with March fast approaching, demand is expected to accelerate as more widespread application windows become available. As ever, on-farm planning will be key. Growers are strongly encouraged to ensure that tank capacity is full heading into the spring season, or for those with existing spring orders, to call off deliveries promptly as soon as space becomes available. This will help maintain product availability in the right place at the right time and avoid unnecessary delays during peak demand.  

For those with spring requirements already booked, we recommend reviewing tonnages against the cropping currently in the ground. Winter cereal and oilseed rape crops are showing strong potential and will require appropriate nitrogen and sulphur rates to maximise yield and quality. Ensuring that nutrient plans align with crop condition and yield expectations will be essential to fully capitalise on the season ahead. Pricing for liquid fertiliser continues to compare competitively with solid alternatives, with attractive opportunities across nitrogen, sulphur and a wide range of NPK grades suitable for all cropping systems. 

• PKs / Straights  

A quick update on the phosphate and potash situation - both are in short supply, along with several other raw materials needed for PKs and NPK blends. The same constraints we’ve been dealing with elsewhere apply here too - European quarter four demand, weather‑related delays at load ports, and the wider impact of the European CBAM on the blended supply chain. As for current offers, it’s very much a case of availability rather than price. Values are a little firmer, driven by the potential for late demand and the ongoing shortage of raw materials. Again, speak to your Frontier contact for more information. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

To be notified each time this report is published in the future, you can also subscribe to ensure you always have the latest market insights - just complete the form below.