WHEAT 

• Markets slip lower again 

Amidst the building global wheat supply, prices have been lower this week. London wheat futures fell to new contract lows, dropping below those previously set mid-October with Paris close to doing the same. 

Increasing production prospects for Australia have been highlighted by the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIAWA), with Western Australia set to break records with its grain harvest this season. GIAWA said wheat production would reach 13.1 million tonnes, almost 2 million tonnes above the previous five-year average of 11.2 million tonnes. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its total Australian wheat production estimate to 36 million tonnes earlier this month, almost 2 million tonnes up on last season. This is the case for all the major wheat exporters who have higher wheat production on the year, Ukraine being the only exception. 

Saudi Arabia bought 300,000 tonnes of 12.5% protein milling wheat for arrival in February and April, with prices ranging from $258 to $259.75 depending on port and position. The likely origin is Black Sea or Argentina, with the prices reported to be $7 to $8 below replacement levels. This highlights the abundance of export wheat available and the market challenges ahead. 

President Trump encouraged China to buy more US soybeans in a call with President Xi and although there was news of at least 10 cargoes bought for January shipment, there was nothing for wheat and this left markets weak. 

• Upbeat 2026 outlook 

Northern Hemisphere wheat production prospects for 2026 are mostly upbeat. Ukraine winter planting reached 98.1% complete according to the Ukraine economy minister which amounts to 6.4 million hectares. Of that, 4.693 million hectares is wheat from the forecast 4.778 million hectares. Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said Russian wheat output could reach between 86 and 91 million tonnes, like 2025’s 88.5 million tonnes. 

The Monitoring Agricultural Resource for the EU (MARS) said EU cereals and oilseeds were experiencing good early growth conditions, with planting progressing well and almost complete. France has benefitted from favourable weather and soil conditions, though this is not quite the case for Hungry, Western Romania and Northern Bulgaria, where dryness has caused significant delays. French wheat crop drilling advanced 6 points to reach 95% complete the week ending 17th November. Crop condition has remained unchanged at 98% good/excellent, 10 points ahead of last year for the same period. 

US winter wheat planting advanced 5 points this week to 97% complete, in line with the average. The crop condition edged 3 points higher to 48% good/excellent, although this still trails last year’s 55%. 

BARLEY 

• Feed barley demand remains strong despite a narrowing discount to feed wheat  

Demand for feed barley both in the UK and EU remains healthy, supporting prices this side of the new year. In the Southern Hemisphere, the Argentinian harvest is delayed by rain and, although Australia’s record harvest is progressing well, the belief is that its shipping programme is currently at capacity. These factors all contribute to the current support in the market, but in time they will surely dissipate, and the high volume of feed barley stocks globally will weigh heavy on markets again. Considering these factors, growers in need of cash or movement are advised to sell into this spot support, while long-holders may wish to lock in some carries that exist in the market today. 

• New crop activity tentative amid a smaller barley area 

As mentioned last week, crop ‘26 interest from maltsters continues to be tentative, with the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) Early Bird Planting survey forecasting a 15% decrease in spring barley area. This limited activity has continued, and activity from feed consumers continues to be muted too. Against the backdrop of a struggling malting sector, feed consumers aren’t in a hurry to take new crop cover just yet – although those that are will be finding discounts to wheat tighter than crop ‘25, around £11-13. The feed demand will likely decline at these levels, so growers are encouraged to explore their marketing options for next season – either via selling forward into existing prices, locking in feed bases for malting barley contracts or into our pools.  

OILSEEDS  

Over the past week, the rapeseed market has been shaped by a mix of supply pressures and shifting demand patterns across Europe. Rapeseed prices have remained supported, with UK-delivered crush values trading at around £435 per tonne.   

On a broader level, demand for rapeseed in Europe is strong. European Commission data suggests that rapeseed imports into the EU have dropped this season, partly due to reduced imports from Ukraine, which are normally key for early season supply in Europe. This is after levies on Ukrainian exports have stifled movements and more seed has been crushed domestically.   

Meanwhile, policy tailwinds are supporting the market longer-term. Changes in German biofuel policy could see an increase in demand for rapeseed oil as a biofuel feedstock from 2026 onwards.    

From a supply standpoint, projections for the next season suggest the EU rapeseed area could rise. It seems to be that early-sown winter rapeseed is being favoured in Europe, thanks to attractive margins compared to cereals.   

In summary, rapeseed prices are being underpinned by limited imports and firm biofuel-driven demand, while expectations of rising EU acreage and impending imports from Canada and Australia offer a mixed signal — supportive for future supply but potentially moderating price gains. 

FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN 

As mentioned in previous reports, India has been tendering for a further 2.5 million tonnes. As of this morning, current offers have been less than 1.5 million tonnes, which will leave India needing to secure a further 1 million tonnes before Christmas. This will set a floor in the market, allowing producers better returns over the previous tender last month. It is thought that the Middle East and Russia will supply the bulk of product, with limited tonnes from China and other producer nations, but details are yet to be confirmed. One interesting point is the fact that India have failed to purchase its full tender requirements 6 out of the last 8 attempts.   

European and UK purchases before the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect look to be close to completion in time for the end of 2025. North African producers are now looking for sales into January and February.   

CF Fertilisers reissued its terms for January delivery, albeit for a limited volume with an increment in price from the previous levels. A cargo of ammonia is due to arrive at its facilities in Billingham this weekend, and whilst prices haven’t been shared, ammonia levels remain firm. CF Fertilisers is yet to issue its February delivery terms, but it is inevitable that the next level of pricing will be a further increase on current terms. 

Yara UK also increased values on its N and NS product range at the back end of last week, which further supports firmness in the nitrogen market. 

• UAN 

Growers with available tank capacity on farm and known requirements for the season are strongly encouraged to take advantage of current offers before these existing terms are withdrawn at the end of November. As signalled in recent weeks, UK UAN suppliers have continued to closely monitor their stock levels and vessel schedules. Considering the increased replacement costs terms, current offers will be withdrawn at the end of the month, with revised terms expected to be released in early December. Current terms offering product for delivery in the autumn and spring periods have remained unchanged since their release earlier this autumn, offering growers competitive value when compared to alternative AN-based solid systems. A full portfolio of NP and NPK products is also available for those looking for quality, water soluble compounds for delivery through quarter one and two of 2026. Growers are advised to speak to their local Frontier representative to discuss the product range and terms available. 

• Straights/PKs 

As referenced in our Frontrunner report last week, the developments in the US regarding tariff rates have led to a softening on phosphate values. However, as more volume is covered, the decline in pricing levels will slow and attention will turn to the physical availability and timings of vessel arrivals into the UK.  

Potash remains unchanged, despite demand waning, and any fears of downward pressure could quickly take a U- turn as spring demand increases. In spring 2025, the industry saw delays in the arrival of raw materials to UK ports, so it is advised to review your P and K requirements and speak to your Frontier representative to discuss and plan your outstanding requirements for spring 2026. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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