WHEAT

• Mixed market reaction to cold weather 

Much of the US winter wheat planted area is in the grip of an extreme cold weather event, with temperatures in parts of Kansas and Texas (both major wheat producers) enduring record low temperatures down to -18°C.  

The good news is that heavy snow has been widespread, providing an insulation blanket to protect winter wheat and prevent winter kill. The snow should also ease any fears of drought as it will likely boost soil moisture levels when it melts.  

Heading into the winter, the US winter wheat area that had been subject to drought had been expanding above last year's levels. However, not all areas have benefitted from the snow cover, with reports of crops in Nebraska now also exposed to the extreme cold. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the US winter wheat planted area to be lower than last year for the 2026 harvest, but the market has been choppy this week with no clear decision on if the wintery weather is a positive or negative for 2026 production prospects. 

• Russia also impacted by low temperatures  

Ukrainian wheat exports continue to battle not only adverse weather this month, but also more intense Russian attacks on port infrastructure and logistics.  

Shipments only reached 8.37 million tonnes, compared to 10.61 million tonnes last year. This would suggest the USDA estimated exportable surplus of 23 million tonnes, just 400,000 tonnes lower than last season, won’t be met, leaving a heavy carry out going into next season.  

Ukrainian feed wheat was reportedly offered for shipment to Spain’s Mediterranean ports at $238, including all freight and costs, equivalent to just £176. EU wheat shipments have been fairing little better with a significantly larger surplus than last year, with the official cumulative pace up until 23rd January reaching 12.38 million tonnes compared to 12.44 million tonnes last year.  

Data for France remains incomplete for the previous two-year period, so the picture painted looks far worse than the reality. However, EU wheat exporters’ tasks have become more challenging this week as the euro soared to its highest value compared to the US dollar since June 2021. 

In contrast, SovEcon increased its Russian wheat export estimate for this season to 45.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes on previous estimates, reflecting on the recent pace and proving better than expected. Conversely, it sees lower shipments for next season at 39.6 million tonnes, possibly giving others a chance to catch up. 

• Extreme heat slows yield prospects in Argentina  

Argentina - having reaped a huge record wheat harvest this season - had been expecting a record corn crop. However, recent weather has been extremely hot, with temperatures up to 40°C for a prolonged period and little sign of rain relief until February. With corn planting nearing completion at over 93% done, yields are likely to drop because of the damaging heat. Argentina is the world’s third largest corn exporter behind Brazil and the US. 

BARLEY 

It has been a relatively quiet week in the barley market. The main feature for the UK is that barley is travelling some distance from the lower-priced areas close to ports over to premium areas such as the Southwest, Northwest and Yorkshire.  

Demand for old crop feed barley domestically remains strong, with modest discounts to feed wheat making it an attractive sell. However, UK feed barley is lacking competitiveness against other origins, which could put pressure on domestic values. Looking forward to new crop, there has been some cover taken by domestic compounders in the week.  

The malting barley sector continues to be depressed, with full specification malting barley continuing to find its way in the feed market as premiums remain historically low. Overall, malting demand remains a challenge in both Europe and the UK. Looking forward to crop ‘26, the spring barley area is anticipated down as a result of a significant increase in autumn sowing. Although the previously mentioned demand concerns in both brewing and distilling sectors look set to continue into next season, ultimately the weather post-sowing will be the critical factor for both yield, quality, and subsequent malting premiums. For now, buyers are relatively relaxed and are in no rush. 

OILSEEDS  

Rapeseed markets have remained volatile over the last two weeks, shaped by a mix of international trade and biofuel policy.  

Crude oil has remained supported in energy markets, feeding through to biodiesel values and keeping underlying support in the oilseed complex, though without generating sustained upside momentum. In Europe, attention is focused firmly on good nearby crush demands and relatively low import levels offering support. New crop growing conditions, including winterkill concerns, in parts of eastern Europe have eased, while questions remain over spring weather and rapeseed crop establishment across northern European countries. However, the main driver seems to be improved sentiments over China and Canada’s trade deal on canola, which has massively improved demand prospects for Canadian seed previously set for Europe.   

The UK market continues to reflect a structurally tighter domestic balance sheet. The UK planted area remains historically low after several difficult seasons, and crop conditions are good but with an eye on the sustained rains we have seen. This has helped maintain a degree of firmness in UK values compared with continental benchmarks.  

Import demand into the UK is still an important feature, with crushers monitoring availability from the EU and further afield, particularly Australia, as logistics and currency movements influence replacement costs. Sterling’s recent stability has limited sharp price swings, but basis levels remain sensitive to short-term supply coverage.   

GRAIN POOLS 

• Last chance to book winter crop commitments 

Applications to commit grain to the Frontier winter pools close on 31st January.  

Joining a grain pool is widely recognised as an effective way to reduce your market risk, helping you to diversify your portfolio and put a percentage of your trading decisions into the hands of commodity experts. Joining the Frontier pools also means you benefit from the extra security of a product of area contract, guaranteed payment dates and exclusive market reach. 

You can learn more about the Frontier pools here.  

Applications for the spring pools are open until 31st March.   

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

Another week of uncertainty remains in the urea market due to ongoing geopolitical factors and a recent increase in purchasing for North African product, causing nervousness in European and UK markets. All suppliers withdrew terms last week and prices have firmed significantly as a result. Concerns in the Middle East (a big producer of urea globally) including geopolitical matters, production cuts due to gas issues, no Chinese exports, and the potential for a further Indian Tender, are all looming over the urea market.

In Europe, gas prices have increased significantly over the last week due to a cold spell and low stocks, keeping European produced fertiliser values firm, in strong demand, and with limited supply as Europe heads into its peak spring period. European nitrate producers are firm in their pricing, making UK-produced CF Nitram a competitive option. Here in the UK, CF Fertilisers withdrew its February Nitram prices on Friday and moved onto March pricing, with a step up of £10 per tonne. Frontier still have terms available for February delivery, so please speak to your contact for prices.

• Liquid/UAN

Once growers can travel following a period of wet and cold weather, UAN applications will begin at pace across large parts of the UK on arable crops. It is essential that consideration is given to planning and replenishing on farms stocks as we head further into spring and the main application periods throughout March and April.

Suppliers and Frontier have geared up with additional logistic capacity and full dockside storage to help the spring delivery period go as smoothly as possible. However, if we see an open spring similar to 2025, there will inevitably be some pinch points in the coming months.

NP and NPK + S grades will also begin to gain some traction in the coming weeks as growers look to finalise their cropping plans. Please talk to your Frontier contacts to discuss how these products could help form part of your crop nutrition programme on a range of root, cereal and forage crops.

• PKs/straights

The phosphate and potash markets remain firm as demand picks up. There are concerns over product availability, with delays being seen in loading ports affecting vessel arrival dates particularly in the DAP and MOP market, which looks to be tight in supply for the immediate future. Most suppliers already have full order books for February and are now looking at March delivery, but this is also subject to vessels arriving on time.

The potash market also remains supported due to good demand keeping prices firm. Frontier has good quality compound products available and on the floor for a prompt delivery, negating the need to wait for raw material arrival to produce blended alternatives.

We are starting to see some tightness in raw material availability, combined with logistical issues to farm, so make sure to order your fertiliser requirements at the earliest opportunity to ensure product is on farm in time for the peak use period - less than a month away subject to the weather. The choice of product and size of order, along with the number of raw materials to fulfil the load, are also things to consider when making fertiliser product choices. It’s a good time to think about selecting available products, as choices now could determine when the delivery to farm takes place.

Please keep in contact with your Frontier representative on outstanding fertiliser requirements and market updates.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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