WHEAT

• More supply from the USDA  

This week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its 2025 US wheat production estimates and 1st September US wheat stocks.  

Both were above the average trade estimates and the 2024 numbers, and this encouraged another spell of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Paris and London futures selling and those markets pushing them to new contract lows.  

US wheat production is seen 1.6 million tonnes up on the previous USDA estimate at 54 million tonnes, and this was around 1.6 million tonnes ahead of average trade estimates. 1st September wheat stocks were also up on trade estimates by 2 million tonnes at 57.7 million tonnes, which is 3.5 million tonnes up on last year.  

Prior to the report, US weekly wheat export inspections for week ending 25th September came in close to the top end of trade estimates at 739,000 tonnes. This takes the cumulative to 9.53 million tonnes which is 15% ahead of the same period last year. The USDA export estimate made at the start of September was put at 24.49 million tonnes, 8.9% up on last year. The production increases made on Tuesday will add to the US exporter burden whilst all the other major wheat exporters are also boosting their supply and giving a bearish market outlook. 

• All but Ukraine has more wheat 

With the US updates, all the major wheat exporters now - excluding Ukraine - have 2025 wheat production estimates above last year, cementing in a short to medium term bearish market outlook.  

Argentina is seen by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) harvesting 22 million tonnes compared to 18.5 million tonnes last year. Australia is up to 34.5 million tonnes, half a million tonnes up on the year, while Canada is 36.6 million tonnes up from 35.9 million last year. The EU will see the greatest increase, over 22 million tonnes up on the year, with Russia at 87 million tonnes, up 4 million.  

Collectively, that is over 30 million tonnes with world demand up perhaps only 5 million tonnes. Ukraine is the odd one out, but it may only be half a million tonnes down on the year. The global supply is more than comfortable, and importers remain relaxed, leaving markets without any positive dynamic demand edge to boost prices.   

• EU trade slow – but enough 

Brussels continues to paint a bearish trade picture. Weekly official EU wheat export data put wheat shipments at 4.37 million tonnes, just 250,000 tonnes up on the week and trailing last year’s cumulative total for the same period at 6.36 million tonnes.  

The data continues to miss key vessel updates from France, Bulgaria and Romania and as such paints a misleading picture. Actual is seen by those able to account for loaded vessels around 7 million tonnes shipped, but the wider market just sees an exporter struggling to find outlets for its additional 22 million tonne crop this year. 

Jordan passed on its tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat this week, doing little to help. 

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BARLEY

The malting barley market has come under further pressure this week, as European values have tumbled.  

Overall demand remains a challenge in both Europe and the UK, and a sizable carry in of crop ’24 barley is weighing heavily on the market.  

Export bid values for UK malting barley are barely premiums to feed barley in the South of England, and plenty of malting barley is finding its way into the feed market. In Scotland, the distilling market is facing challenges due to the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) having recently reduced many Speyside distilleries water usage due to ‘significant water scarcity’ in several rivers. With Speyside responsible for more than two-thirds of all single malt Scotch whisky production in Scotland, and some distilleries now running at just 20% capacity, malt offtake is slowing down, and maltsters requirements are reducing further in an already challenged environment 

Feed barley prices have come under pressure this week due to malting barley failures adding weight to the feed barley heap. With little export interest, domestic demand is critical and currently good due to feed barley’s price relationship against wheat, however, farmer selling is matching demand. The discount between wheat and barley has widened in the nearby positions, mainly due to wheat being harder to source due to reluctant farmer selling. 

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OILSEED RAPE

Over the past week, oilseed rape values have softened, with November MATIF down €10/t from this time last week and the February position now the same price and November. 

The pressure stems largely from the US, where soybean stocks were reported at higher levels than expected and exports are forecast at just 40 million tonnes, a 13-year low. This combined with slow Chinese buying is creating a bearish feel to the oilseed complex, with ample global supply.  

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FERTILISER

• Urea/AN 

European farm gate markets are under increasing pressure as familiar challenges intersect with new geopolitical and regulatory disruptions. Current market analysis indicates that conditions across the continent closely resemble those here in the UK, with weather volatility, strained farm economics, and limited cash flow all influencing decisions around agricultural inputs. 

In the absence of a meaningful rise in grain prices, farmers are becoming more financially cautious. Crop nutrition investments are now more closely tied to grain sales than to agronomic demand, reflecting a shift towards financial pragmatism in the face of uncertain returns. 

Compounding these pressures are two significant and unprecedented developments. The first is the imposition of Russian fertiliser tariffs. Russia has historically been a key supplier of fertiliser to Europe, benefiting from access to low-cost natural gas. These newly introduced tariffs have severely disrupted supply chains, reducing the availability of fertiliser and increasing costs for European farmers. 

The second challenge is the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While CBAM is designed to penalise carbon-intensive imports and promote environmental accountability, its vague rollout has created confusion across the EU agricultural supply chain. With limited understanding of how the mechanism will function in practice, businesses are hesitant to engage, leading to delays in trade and planning. 

As October begins, the window for timely fertiliser delivery is narrowing. If these issues persist, farmers may struggle to secure essential inputs before winter, potentially affecting spring cropping decisions and overall productivity. 

UK agriculture is not immune to these pressures. Many of the challenges facing European farmers are equally relevant here in the UK. With over 70% of fertiliser requirements imported, the UK will be competing directly with European markets for supply. Producers, many of whom are based in Europe, are likely to prioritise domestic markets or markets offering the lowest cost or highest return. Alternatively, they may reduce production until demand becomes more visible, particularly given the volatility in gas and ammonia markets. 

UK-produced Ammonium Nitrate continues to be offered for delivery in January 2026, with February 2026 terms expected to be announced shortly. Beyond these forward offers, the domestic market remains largely subdued, awaiting a broader return of demand. Drilling activity is progressing well, but purchasing decisions are still cautious, with buyers holding off until crop establishment and market indicators become clearer. 

 

• Liquid/UAN 

As drilling progresses across the UK growers with winter cereal or OSR crops in the ground are encouraged to review their total season nitrogen and sulphur requirements; growers have access to a full portfolio of competitively priced grades for the Autumn tank fill and Spring delivery periods, however it is worth noting the volumes available at these current terms are limited. The UK UAN supply chain is no stranger to the challenges and market pressures highlighted above in the AN and Urea section; with 60-65% of UAN being delivered in the Spring usage period manufacturers will continue to carefully manage their stocks and shipping schedules to ensure finished product is available throughout the season. Volumes covered will reflect farm gate demand as suppliers forecast the anticipated requirement for the season factoring in the continued growth experienced year on year in the UK liquid fertiliser marketplace. Growers with tank capacity should look to take advantage of the Autumn tank fill values available, ensuring their on-farm storage is full ahead of the Spring. Securing a known proportion of product for Spring delivery now ensures readiness for the season and reduces the exposure to potential market volatility in the spot market during usage.  

 

• PKs 

In line with the earlier commentary on European supply challenges, the outlook for MOP, TSP, and DAP appears even more concerning. Phosphate fertilisers - particularly DAP - are produced using ammonia, and that market remains extremely volatile. Reduced production in Saudi Arabia is a key driver of current instability. If DAP prices firm, TSP is likely to follow suit. 

This is a situation to watch closely. As a market, we do not consume sufficient volumes to influence global pricing, so if prices rise, we will simply have to absorb the impact. More critically, the greater risk may be a lack of physical product in the spring, which could lead to significant logistical challenges. 

MOP pricing is already firming from 1st October. While some UK suppliers may still hold stock, once those volumes are depleted, the market is expected to continue strengthening. For further details, please speak to your Frontier contact. 

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Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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