WHEAT

• Continues optimism on US China Trade Talks

Wheat joined the rally with other agricultural commodities, following the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybeans upwards on the back of the US-China trade talks on Monday. The negotiations may help US soybean exporters regain access back to their largest market, which pushed soybean futures to a 15-month high. This led to London Wheat’s May 26 futures contract closing at £178.60 on Monday - up by £3.60 - before reaching a high of £179.75 on Tuesday which is a level not seen since September.

The value of Sterling has remained weak compared to the Euro, which supported the wheat rally this week. MATIF’s May 26 contract traded to a low of €193.75 last Thursday before climbing to a high of €201.50 on Tuesday.

Markets tried to continue the rally driven from the US-China trade talks, but both London and Paris wheat markets have eased back slightly, with London trading in the high £170s and Paris trading in the high €190s mid-week. The rally in futures is most likely driven by fund shorts spooked by the soybean rally and taking some cover in their wheat position.

• Mixed outlook across global wheat

Planting conditions across the Northern Hemisphere remain good. France is currently 57% planted on its winter wheat crop and Ukraine looks set to plant another 4 million hectares which is very similar to last year.

Russia’s planting is slow, with the total expected to be between 2-4% less than last year.

Russia’s export tax is set to rise this week to $2/t, significantly cheaper than recent years where it’s been between $30-40/t. A low export tax should promote export sales, but domestic Russian prices are poor, with farmers reluctant to sell. 12.5% Russian milling wheat is offered at $232 FOB, with German only $2/t more at $234/t FOB.

In the Southern Hemisphere, analysts are expecting record yields in Argentina where a 23 million tonne crop is predicted. This explains traders’ eagerness to offer cheap Argentinean new crop wheat to world markets. 11.5% wheat is currently being offered at $213/t FOB for December shipment.

BARLEY

• Feed barley under pressure

Feed consumers have started to return to buying in forward markets once again as they come back with demand from January onwards. The price carry into forward months remains but is beginning to weaken as the weight of available stocks becomes clear.

Feed barley values remain static, although Yorkshire markets have once again come under pressure. Despite healthy demand for feed barley in Yorkshire, the volume of feed available from Scotland and from East Anglia is leaving Yorkshire feeling the squeeze in the middle.

While Scotland is seeing some limited export demand, this is concentrated mainly in the north, meaning barley as far north as Fife prices into Yorkshire markets. East Anglian barley continues to price into domestic homes at a premium to export, and for as long as this remains the case markets in the North of England remain under pressure.

• Good feed barley demand while malting is subdued

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has released its first supply and demand estimates for the current crop year, placing feed barley consumption down by 4%. Given current healthy demand from the ruminant sector, issues with forage stocks and the lack of availability of alternative products, this feels light and there’s an argument to suggest that feed barley consumption will at least be at parity with last year, if not improved, despite a smaller overall crop.

On the other hand, malting demand may well be overstated, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season – particularly amid a lower spring barley area forecast for next season.

Domestic malting demand remains subdued and fresh demand absent. Export demand also remains virtually non-existent given an over-supplied EU market. On farm, malting barley continues to hit the feed market in many areas of the country, particularly the South of England.

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed values were optimistic last week as a combination of factors came into play.

After US President Trump’s visit to Asia, markets have been feeling more confident that a deal will be stuck between the US and China, giving strength to both soybean and crude markets and lending value to rapeseed markets.

EU crushers are reportedly finding it difficult to source nearby seed as EU farmers are reserved sellers of rapeseeds and Canadian and Australian seed is not yet available for delivery.

Sunflower seed harvests in Southern Europe are also coming in worse than expected, increasing the demand for rapeseed. To top it off, sterling has been very weak, giving a hand to UK values which are trading at around £426 delivered to crush. Trade policy will be keeping volatility in the market and will be key to watch.

Conditions of new crop in the UK are reportedly very good, which could take us above 1 million tonnes again which is a welcome step in the right direction for the rapeseed industry.

PULSES

• Feed beans

The UK bean market continues to be subdued, being hard pressed to find a bid for any position in the market.

With a wave of pre-Christmas farmer selling, prices continue to weaken. Prices need to continue to fall for there to be any big uptake in demand. The UK remains €30 too expensive on the export market. However, any FOB sellers at the right levels will find it hard to find a buyer.

• Human consumption beans

Harvest is beginning in Australia, and given the high values quoted from the UK, there is very little export interest. The general feel is that we have seen the best premiums for the UK market for those who took advantage of the early export opportunity.

• Peas

Like beans, demand remains lower given that UK prices are so expensive compared to other origins. There are plenty of peas around, both micronising and feed. Pre-Christmas shorts have been filled for micronising demand.

FERTILISER

• UREA / AN

The past week has seen significant movement across global fertiliser markets, driven by developments in India and China, unexpected ammonia plant shutdowns, and a growing focus on the forthcoming implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

India’s latest urea tender, initially seeking 2 million tonnes, has seen a muted response. After two deadline extensions, the tender has secured only around 430,000 tonnes. A third deadline of 28th October was issued to attract additional offers for shipment by 10th December, although this was unsuccessful.

Given the persistent shortfalls from previous tenders, India is expected to return to the market again soon, potentially seeking a further 3 million tonnes or more to meet domestic demand ahead of the Rabi planting season. This ongoing procurement cycle is expected to provide continued upward pressure on global urea prices, particularly from Middle Eastern and North African suppliers, who are key suppliers to the European and UK markets.

Expectations that China might participate in the Indian tender were dashed after Beijing suspended exports of several key fertilisers, including urea, effective 15th October. The move, aimed at stabilising domestic supply and prices, is expected to remain in place for five to six months, potentially extending into the first quarter of 2026.

The absence of Chinese exports will tighten global supply (particularly across Asia), disrupt trade flows, and elevate urea prices globally as importers compete for limited export availability**.**

Adding to global supply concerns, Nutrien Ltd, based in Canada and the world’s second-largest nitrogen fertiliser producer, has announced the indefinite suspension of operations at its four ammonia plants in the Caribbean.

This unexpected shutdown delivers a further blow to ammonia availability for buyers in the Americas and Europe, just as new production capacity elsewhere has yet to come online.

Ammonia prices, the key feedstock for AN, urea, CAN, UAN and DAP, are now around 75% higher than in June 2025, though these increases have not yet been fully reflected in retail prices across Europe or the UK. As supply tightens, nitrate prices are expected to firm in the near term, with farmers and growers likely to face higher replacement costs heading into early 2026.

The EU’s CBAM is set for full implementation on 1st January 2026 and continues to generate uncertainty among producers and importers. While the mechanism aims to create a level playing field on carbon emissions, a lack of clarity around administrative requirements and cost implications is causing concern across the fertiliser supply chain.

In Europe and the UK, many growers are showing reluctance to commit to forward purchases, reflecting both price fatigue and policy uncertainty. However, as demand rises following positive autumn drillings, existing supply constraints, particularly into the first quarter of 2026, could make meeting that demand increasingly difficult for the UK fertiliser industry.

Growers are strongly advised to review their fertiliser requirements now to ensure timely physical delivery in what remains a highly uncertain and volatile market.

• UAN

As referenced above, UK growers have taken advantage of open conditions in recent weeks to establish large areas of winter cereals. As we move into November, growers are encouraged to review their current nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur requirements based on their known cropping.

The various factors influencing the nitrates market have the increased potential to impact the UAN supply and pricing into the UK. As demand from existing UAN growers and interest from those exploring a change in system increases, suppliers continue to keep a sharp eye on their shipping schedules and stock levels. Any changes to global UAN availability could lead to tightening or possible disruption in the UK supply chain.

The autumn and winter periods offer growers the opportunity to take delivery of product into on farm storage, ensuring tanks are full ahead of busy spring applications. Those looking to secure product for the spring delivery window continue to be able to do so at competitive values when compared to nitrate-based solid systems. Committing to known requirements now provides cost certainty and guaranteed supply amid the volatile conditions. Growers are encouraged to contact their Frontier representative to discuss the options available to them.

• PKs

The phosphates market is steady, with signs of slight weakness globally as demand dissipates. This could be short term, as demand is expected from other regions like South America coupled with the export ban from China that will alter trade flows.

The UK struggled to maintain stock levels of DAP in spring 2025, with replacement product suffering shipping delays and eventually causing late deliveries to farm, a picture that’s unfortunately already building.  The recent increase in MOP prices hasn’t yet taken effect in farm values seen here in the UK, but we could see this very soon.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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