WHEAT

• Weather versus fundamentals

World wheat markets have been choppy in recent days, with overwhelming bearish fundamentals weighing on prices while severe winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere leaves some uncertainty over the 2026 harvest prospects. Added to that is volatility in foreign exchange as the US dollar recovers from a four-and-a-half year low compared to the euro.

Ukrainian state weather forecasters said that Ukrainian winter wheat crops suffered no damage from last month’s weather, despite an extreme cold burst during the final week of January. Some reports suggested the crop would drop below 20 million tonnes because of winter kill, but this comment counters those views. Perhaps its February update will be more damning, with temperatures dropping to -30°C this week and reports of an ice crust forming in many fields in central and eastern Ukraine. It’s worth mentioning that winter planted crops account for 95% of the total Ukrainian wheat output.

Russia might expect a more traditional winter kill area compared to minimal losses over the past two or three ‘warm’ winters. However heavy snow cover in most areas, as well as being protective, offers a boost for soil moisture levels when temperatures rise and the snow melts.

• UK market prospects tough going

Domestically, London wheat futures recovered a little from last week’s old crop contract low. But this week’s update for the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) UK supply and demand estimates highlight a challenging market backdrop to navigate.

Defra has increased its final official production estimate to 11.958 million tonnes, which would be at the top end of trade estimates. Imports remain unchanged from previous estimates at 2.2 million tonnes as milling imports retreat to normal levels, giving a total availability of 16.138 million tonnes. Demand is slightly lower than before, with no wheat now used for bioethanol production. The balance is 2.218 million tonnes with the AHDB expecting a 170,000-tonne export which leaves a heavy carry out beyond commercial need above 2 million tonnes. There is also a residual balance from the end of the 2024-25 season, with 542,000 tonnes to account for. These numbers collectively suggest that wheat price recovery in the future looks challenging. Given upbeat yield projections for the 2026 UK wheat harvest, a need to export looks inevitable. Therefore, at some stage domestic wheat prices will need to drop compared with other origins to become competitive.

• Mixed US wheat prospects

In the US, the 1st February monthly crop rating highlighted mixed fortunes for US winter wheat producing states. The largest of those, Kansas, saw a marginal improvement of one point to 61% good/excellent, well ahead of last year’s 50%. Nebraska, however, saw a marked decline from 40% good/excellent in January to 24% this week, just below last year’s 25%. Texas is in a similar situation, falling from 20% to just 13% good/excellent, and Oklahoma fell from 31% last month down to 23% good/excellent as the expanding drought impacts crop ratings. The national US picture is updated weekly from the beginning of April.

BARLEY

• Lack of fresh consumer demand puts old crop under pressure

Old crop malting markets remain quiet once again, and feed markets have continued to be relatively subdued. At this stage, consumers have reasonable cover on and, with a narrow discount to wheat, often won’t return for top-ups as they did in the autumn and aren’t in a rush to take forward cover.

Fresh consumer interest is lowest in the Southwest of England, where the discount to wheat has shrunk to as low as £3. However, with a lack of buying demand, values are beginning to come under pressure. Sterling strength and high freight costs are currently preventing the UK from being competitive on the export markets, where fresh consumer demand is difficult to come by.

• No surprises in latest UK supply and demand figures

The AHDB released its updated supply and demand figures this week, largely uneventful from a barley perspective. Production was revised down slightly, but this was outweighed by a reduction in human and industrial consumption, which may well have further to fall given it includes malting and distilling demand. Feed demand was revised up on the previous update, but (as suggested above) feed barley demand does seem to have stalled. However, on-farm feeding will be continuing with the current mild and wet conditions.

• Interest in new crop feed builds, while malting remains limited

Crop ’26 is set to see the UK have its smallest barley crop since 2012 – so it's no surprise that feed consumers began to come into the market last week to start taking some new crop cover. Consumers are largely finding new crop feed levels at a discount of £10-12 below wheat, which will hurt barley demand in the long run but many feel this is the time to start taking cover for the time being. It may be a good time for growers to start taking some cover as well to manage their risk or lock in feed bases for malting contracts. This narrow discount to wheat should make barley a more attractive sell today for early sales, while longer term it won’t be a particularly attractive buy for the consumer.

OILSEEDS

Rapeseed markets have moved modestly higher over the past week, extending the recovery that began at the start of the year. MATIF futures firmed as broader sentiment across the vegetable oil complex stabilised, with macro drivers once again playing an important role in price direction.

Trade developments between Canada and China have remained a key talking point, and it seems like the Chinese have already bought multiple cargoes of Canadian origin canola. This has been interpreted as supportive for European rapeseed values, particularly given Europe’s ongoing reliance on imports and the sensitivity of the balance sheet to any shift in global trade flows.

After the heavy selling seen late last year, rapeseed has attracted a degree of fund re-buying, helping futures recover from oversold territory. A stronger value of sterling in the last week has detracted from UK farmgate values.

In physical markets, the futures strength has translated into slightly improved bids, but farmer selling remains cautious. Growers in the UK and Northern Europe continue to show limited urgency, preferring to wait for clearer direction, while crushers remain focused on covering nearby needs and relying on imported supplies where available.

Despite the firmer tone, the broader fundamental picture remains largely unchanged. Global oilseed supplies are still comfortable and expectations of sizeable crops elsewhere in the complex continue to limit upside. For now, the market feels better supported but still lacks a strong fundamental catalyst for a sustained rally.

PULSES

• Feed beans

Sterling remains the main drag on the export market as the strength of the British pound continues to limit competitiveness, with no sign of any meaningful export bids. Outside of some spot February interest, there is little evidence of forward buying today and demand appears weaker than previously anticipated. Values have eased slightly and buying interest remains sporadic, suggesting there may still be some downside pressure on prices in the near term. Overall, the market remains heavily domestically- driven. Until sterling weakens or global supply tightens, exports are unlikely to provide price support. We have seen domestic homes take cover for the winter run (from October till April) for crop ‘26. This is a positive signal for beans, confirming their inclusion in feed formulations.

• Peas

There has been no material change in the pea market since our last market update, and much of the same remains relevant. The recent agreement between China and Canada on tariffs is expected to see ample volumes of competitively priced, high-quality Canadian peas flowing into China. This significantly reduces the scope for UK peas to capture export demand. Domestically, some summer demand is expected from micronising outlets. However, until these buyers actively enter the market, sellers remain limited in their options and are struggling to find interest. It looks likely that the market will move into the 2026 crop year with carryover stocks, setting up a potentially heavy supply position and continued pressured on values.

FERTILISER

• UREA/AN

Global urea prices have continued their upward climb this week, rising by around 13% over the past month and confirming a sustained period of firmness across global nitrogen markets. This strength is being driven by multiple supplier constraints, including restricted Iranian production due to gas shortages and European nitrogen plants still operating at only around 75% of normal capacity, reducing available export volumes. The potential for a new Indian import tender is adding further upward momentum, increasing global competition for product.

Urea values have risen across Northeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, highlighting that the market tightening is global, not regional. For the UK (which is highly dependent on imported nitrogen) these rising global values directly increase replacement costs and restrict availability.

As global suppliers remain well sold and seasonal demand builds across the Northern Hemisphere, the UK faces higher costs, greater volatility, and reduced supply flexibility just as spring approaches. Overall, the urea outlook remains firm with no short‑term signs of softening, meaning availability and pricing are expected to stay challenging for UK buyers.

As we move into the key spring period, the ammonium nitrate market is also experiencing firm pricing and tightening supply, both in the UK and across Europe.

European nitrate values remain firm, driven primarily by high gas costs, which continue to be the biggest influence on nitrogen production across the EU. These elevated production costs are keeping supply tight ahead of peak seasonal demand.

Domestically, UK‑produced ammonium nitrate prices have risen over the past week, reflecting the same production pressures faced by European manufacturers. As the UK remains heavily reliant on imported nitrogen products, domestic AN availability remains highly sensitive to European market constraints—keeping prices firm and stocks tight.

We are now in a period where UK‑produced AN is genuinely short. With strong demand building and limited relief expected from Europe, ordering early is essential to avoid disappointment.

Frontier still has a limited Nitram tonnage available for February delivery, but stock is moving quickly and most general offers are now focused on March only. Supplies are expected to continue tightening as we progress through spring.

Securing your AN now will ensure timely delivery and protection from disruption. \ Please speak with your Frontier contact to discuss remaining options.

• Liquid

As wet and cold spells continue across large parts of the UK, growers wait for conditions to improve ahead of first applications in the coming weeks. Whether this be Nitrogen, Sulphur, or NPK products, a full portfolio of grades is available for growers to fill their tanks ahead of usage if they have tank capacity on farm. As ever, careful planning during and between applications (for growers with prebooked tonnes or those with a spot demand) is encouraged to avoid the pinch points of the spring season. UAN terms remain unchanged since the adjustment to price earlier this year (on a pence/kg N and per hectare basis for NS grades) and liquid continues to offer growers competitive value when compared to AN based solid alternative.

• PK and NPK

The phosphate (DAP) market remains extremely tight, directly affecting UK supply. China (the world’s largest exporter) is not expected to ship any product until at least August 2026, removing a major supply source and keeping prices firm. High ammonia and sulphur costs are also limiting production in other key regions, including the US, where output remains low.  \ For the UK, this means higher replacement costs, tighter availability, and delivery delays already emerging. With no short‑term relief in sight, phosphate prices are expected to stay firm through the spring.

We strongly encourage buyers to plan early, as global constraints will continue to shape UK availability. Your Frontier contact can help secure the product you need while stocks are still available and discuss alternative options where appropriate.

Globally, the potash market remains steady and well supplied, making it the most stable nutrient compared to nitrogen and phosphate. Geopolitical risks such as the Russia/Ukraine conflict, sanctions on key exporters, and potential US/Canada trade tensions remain factors to monitor. However, they are not currently impacting supply or pricing. These risks could hold prices firm and create a short‑term spike if global tensions escalate.

For UK buyers, availability is good today, but early planning is still advised to secure tonnes ahead of any global changes and avoid disruption should the market move suddenly.

Given the current volatility in phosphate and nitrogen markets, growers should also consider finished compound NPK fertilisers as a reliable alternative. Finished NPKs that closely match crop requirements and are generally available and ready to move onto farm can offer a practical way to secure nutrients early and reduce exposure to unpredictable global pricing.

Your Frontier contact can help identify the right NPK options to support your cropping plans.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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