WHEAT 

• Markets set new contract lows 

Ample supply and poor international trade have encouraged speculative selling and taken wheat futures markets down to their lowest levels for four years. The wheat export pace for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine was significantly less in July than shipped last year. Official 2025-26 EU wheat exports have reached 1.11 million tonnes to date, which compares badly with last year’s 2.64 million tonnes to the same point, highlighting a fundamental demand issue.  Maize imported into the EU is at 700,000 tones, 71% down on last year. 

The delayed harvest in the Black Sea region resulted in a slow arrival of crop to the ports and this may have contributed to the slow export pace. Ukraine’s total grain exports up to 4th August 2025 were at 1.8 million tonnes - less than half last year to 5th August 2024 at 3.68 million tonnes. Of that, wheat accounted for 860,000 tonnes compared with 1.52 million tonnes last year. The scenario in Russia is similar, with between 2 to 2.1 million tonnes of wheat shipped in July this year, compared to 3.6 million tonnes in July 2024. With supplies to ports back on track and Russian wheat prices falling, we might expect August to be very busy. If the slow pace continues, there is clearly a demand issue for markets to address. 

Despite the perceived negative impact on markets from President Trump’s tariffs, the US is bucking the trend for its wheat exports and is ahead of last year’s pace. US wheat weekly export inspections were an encouraging 600,000 tonnes, at the top end of expectations and over double the previous week. Shipments are 9% up on last year so far since 1st June, at just over 3.9 million tonnes. 

• UK harvest progresses well 

Helped by a weak value of sterling, London wheat futures have managed to stay above the contract low set a month ago.  

Uncertainty over the UK crop size is a supportive element, with fears for a small crop as some East Anglian farmers complete their wheat harvest and report yields 20% down on their average.  

However, in the Lincolnshire Fens and moving towards the Northeast, county yields are up on last year, making it difficult to assess the crop size. Currently, there are wide-ranging estimates from 11.5-13 million tonnes. The former is likely to leave the UK needing to import wheat to help prices maintain a near-import cost level. The latter would leave the UK in surplus and prices at some stage needing to fall to levels where exports can be secured. In a contrast to last season, milling wheat quality is excellent with generally high protein above 13%, high Hagberg above 350 and specific weight around 78kg. Milling premiums have fallen sharply, as milling wheat is offered in a market full of old crop which is understandable given how early the UK 2025 crop has arrived. Prices sit well below imported costs, which at some stage may be needed but the domestic crop is attractive given its competitive price and high quality.  

A settled spell of weather should now enable the remaining UK wheat harvest to continue whilst maintaining quality. Last week, the ethanol production plant in Hull tipped its last load of wheat as the company continued negotiations with the Government over its future. The loss of domestic wheat demand, should the plant close permanently, would leave the surplus potential and lower prices compared to other origins more likely. 

• Upbeat future production prospects  

Wheat production prospects for Canada, Argentina and Australia are improving thanks to beneficial weather conditions. Wheat planting in Argentina neared completion, with conditions described as good to optimal for most of the planted area, which has reached 6.7 million hectares. This is up from 6.3 million hectares the previous season, which produced an 18.6 million tonne crop. Beneficial weather is seeing Australian production prospects rise above 33 million tonnes. 

Ukraine hasn’t yet completed harvesting its 2025 crop, but sees production rising to 22 million tonnes, up from 21.2 million tonnes previously. Market prices are seen as sufficient to encourage an increased planted area for 2026, up from 4.7 million hectares to 5 million hectares. However, production will still be well below that in 2021 and start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, when 32 million tonnes of wheat was produced. 

BARLEY 

• Low selling activity from farm supports nearby feed 

In the UK, EU and Black Sea, feed barley markets are firming following a lack of farmer engagement in the market. UK consumers are active primarily in the nearby months and this demand is providing support for feed barley prices in August and September. Forward prices remain under pressure, although the trade is less willing to sell whilst the farmer’s inactivity and a lack of liquidity in feed barley markets persists. 

• Headwinds remain for malting barley despite spring failures 

Recent weather has continued to hold up the UK spring barley harvest for many, but the forecast for the next seven to 10 days looks much clearer and should allow growers to progress.  

Yields so far on spring barley crops have been mixed, although a common theme now is one of higher nitrogen levels. The failure rate of spring barley is around 25%, with much of the crop left to harvest. Malting failures will continue to put pressure on feed but are unlikely to support premiums, however, there’s still the issue of a large carry-in of vintage quality 2024 crop, and demand continues to be slow.  

The progression of the Scandinavian harvest challenged by heavy rains is a watchpoint for malting premiums soon. 

OILSEEDS 

Rapeseed markets have been trading in a relatively small range for the last week as slow harvest progress in Europe competes against an overall large EU-28 production, verging on 21 million tonnes. Rains in Ukraine, Germany and Poland have delayed harvest there, which in turn has delayed availability of spot seed and helped support the market. Conversely, as these supplies become available it would fair to assume there will be some pressure on prices. Crops in Canada and Australia, which are expected to be smaller than last year, are reducing the available import supply to Europe. 

In the UK, harvest is near completion with only some area in Scotland left to combine. Yields have been positive overall and well above the averages of the last few years, with many quoting records as the crop seemed to deal well with the lack of moisture and benefited from higher levels of sunlight.  

Crushers in the UK have been keen for early UK seed but will soon start to use imported supplies that become available from Europe and the Black Sea to help fill the circa 1 million tonne deficit in the UK. Currently, intentions are to increase plantings again in the coming weeks with relatively strong prices and ideal moisture levels for planting. 

PULSES 

• Feed beans 

Despite the stop/start nature of harvest so far, the UK is still ahead of the Baltic harvest. Beans are still at the green pod stage in the Baltics so still a few weeks from harvest, but early indications show they are decent size, and the plants have podded well. 

FOB prices have remained the same over the last few weeks, with the UK price market holding whilst we await harvest. As soon as more beans come forward the market will be quick to fill in the early shipments. 

Domestically, the main consumers haven’t taken much cover for October onwards. 

Rapemeal and soya continue to be cheap, to the point where feed mills aren’t even interested in being quoted for beans in the ration.  

• Human consumption beans 

There are plenty of eager bids in the market for the early export of human consumption cargos to Egypt. Like the feed beans, the UK market is holding out for more beans to available. Judging by the early samples we have seen there will be plenty of winter beans making a human consumption premium this year. The delay in the Baltic harvest and the issues around weather in Australia continue to be a positive for more UK beans being imported to Egypt. However, both French and German beans are looking good with high yields, so that may be a contender for Egypt this year.  

• Peas 

The market continues to await buyers to become available for micronising peas. French peas are looking very good which could impact export opportunities for the UK. 

FERTILISER 

• Urea/AN  

The global urea market remains firm, driven by tight supply, rising input costs, and renewed buyer urgency. Around 10 million tonnes of production capacity have been lost since May, due to geopolitical disruptions and energy shortages, squeezing global availability. India’s latest tender for 2 million tonnes of urea (mix of prilled and granular) is poised for success, signalling acceptance of higher price levels after recent failed attempts. This has added fuel to an already bullish market and will also eat heavily into already limited stocks.  

South American demand is now building and hopes for traditional ‘summer discounts’ for granular urea in the UK and Europe have faded. Buyers who paused during July’s price spike are returning, showing signs that today’s prices may be the new normal. At the same time, volatile ammonia prices continue to drive up production costs, supporting firm pricing for both spot and forward sales. 

With demand rising and no relief in sight on supply or costs, urea prices are expected to remain elevated for the next few months.  

European ammonium nitrate prices have yet to fully reflect the recent increases in raw material costs in ammonia or the strength of the global urea market. However, with production economics tightening and global supply dynamics continuing to shift, upward price movement appears increasingly likely in the near term. 

The traditional premium between AN 34.5% or 33.5% and urea has narrowed considerably, prompting some urea buyers to switch to ammonium nitrate to manage risk related to both price volatility and product availability. 

In the UK, 34.5% of domestically produced AN for December delivery remains available at under £400/t, offering a strategic window for growers to secure their requirements at relatively favourable levels with payment in January 2026.  

Given the combination of mounting global supply pressures and volatile feedstock costs, there is a significant risk of higher AN prices as the season progresses.  

Growers are advised to consider locking in supply now whilst December is available to mitigate potential cost increases later in the year or be exposed to supply and logistic issues in the first quarter of 2026. 

Your Frontier contact can offer guidance on physical ammonium nitrate product availability to meet requirements.   

• Liquid/UAN  

UAN tank fill booked for the summer delivery window continues to arrive on farm at pace across the UK. Growers with tank capacity this summer or autumn yet to cover their requirements will find that UAN nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur terms remain POA. It should be noted these tonnes are limited as UK suppliers continue to manage their stocks and vessel schedules. Growers are reminded that any UAN containing products, including NP starter fertilisers, that are broadcast applied this summer for oilseed rape establishment or post-cutting on grassland, must contain a urease inhibitor such as Limus Perform to remain compliant with the Urea Stewardship Scheme.  

• Straights/PKs  

Phosphate prices remain on an upward track as global supply becomes increasingly constrained. China, historically the world’s largest phosphate exporter, has dramatically scaled back exports, from around 10 million tonnes per year pre-COVID to just over 100,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. These reductions are part of a domestic strategy aimed at meeting internal demand and maintaining economic viability. However, the move has left global markets scrambling for alternative sources. 

As a result, supply chains are being restructured, leading to delays in shipments from North Africa, particularly affecting smaller markets like the UK, and contributing to sharp price increases. With global stock levels in major importing countries at historic lows, the forecast for any price relief is limited unless new production sources ramp up or China resumes exports. 

In the UK, demand for phosphate fertilisers is rising, but both DAP and TSP are at risk of further price increases and potential disruptions to physical supply. 

Global potash markets that have experienced volatility over the past few months are likely to settle slowly as demand drifts away. European and UK markets are seeing more demand, but this can be met given current local stocks and timely replacement cargos. 

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk  for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report. 

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