WHEAT 

• Russia steps up its export pace 

Having started the new season slowly, Russian wheat exports have started to pick up, with more upbeat estimates for shipments this month. Analysts see September shipments higher than originally thought at 4.6 million tonnes, and October even higher at 5 million tonnes. According to analysts at SovEcon, Russia shipped 10.7 million tonnes over September and October last year, so there is still a gap to make up. Many will be watching with interest to see if the improving pace can be maintained until the end of the year. Russia shipped 5.6 million tonnes of wheat in October 2024, which proved the peak with the pace of shipments tailing off after that. Russia certainly has plenty of wheat to go at, with the Russian deputy prime minister putting his country’s wheat production up at 88 million tonnes ahead of other recent revised estimates. 

Russia is helped by Saudi Arabia buying 455,000 tonnes of wheat for December – January; shipment this week. Depending on the port for delivery, prices will range from $262.79/t to $265.39/t, including freight. Offers have come from the EU, Black Sea, US, Argentina and Australia, but it’s thought Russia and other Black Sea countries will be the suppliers.  

• Ukraine exports trail  

Ukraine remains behind last year's wheat export pace, trailing by approximately 1.8 million tonnes. The country has shipped just under five million tonnes, with expectations for a bigger crop next year. Winter drilling has reached 50% complete and there are plans for an increased planted area on the year. Ukraine’s dry spring left drought conditions and challenges for spring crops, which is encouraging winter wheat in preference to sunflowers, for example. Ukraine plans to increase its area of irrigated cropping to combat future drought challenges. 

Whilst Ukraine gears up for an increased wheat area for 2026, there could be the highest fallow area for 10 years in France at around 500,000 t/ha thanks to low wheat prices. While about 2.5 million tonnes isn’t a game changer, it could be relevant if similar seen in other major producing countries. There are, in contrast to Ukraine, troubles with dryness in parts of Russia that could leave a reduced winter wheat area.  

The kind UK autumn is leading to an increased domestic winter wheat area for 2026, with near perfect drilling conditions. It seems highly likely the UK will produce a surplus, leaving an export need and new crop prices are easing lower accordingly.  

• EU ahead of the game 

Whilst Russia and Ukraine play catch up, private estimates suggest the EU is pushing on with its wheat shipping programme. French wheat exporters will supply two-thirds of Morocco’s soft wheat import needs this season, which comes to 3.5 million tonnes from a total import need of 5.5 million tonnes. Vessels heading from France to Morocco are helping boost year-on-year EU wheat export pace, which, according to one private analyst, is close to 8.7 million tonnes compared to 6.6 million tonnes at the same stage last year. This paints a more promising outlook for the EU market and the reason for nearby price strength for physical wheat. There is, however, a limited forward carry and in some cases a forward discount. The official EU wheat export number published earlier this week was 4.95 million tonnes and, although up 600,000 tonnes on the week, continues to mislead traders. 

BARLEY 

• Spanish farmers hold off on barley sales. 

Even though Spain harvested a big crop of barley, local farmers are in no hurry to offer more currently.  

Reluctance has led Spanish importers to look at alternative sources, including the UK, to cover their needs. As a result, UK merchants are now receiving more competitive price quotes—better than those seen in recent months. 

Although these prices are still not attractive enough for the UK to connect to this flow, the increased importer interest suggests that available stocks for trade are gradually tightening. 

Whether the UK can take advantage of this potential export opportunity depends largely on two factors: how long Spanish farmers hold off on releasing stocks, and the level of competition from other exporting regions, particularly the Baltic states. 

• UK compound buyers take a breather 

After a strong pace of buying by the animal feed mills, further purchases are at a lower volume today. We can see from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) figures that the ruminant sector has used more barley over July and August, but the pig sector feed production remains around 9% lower in the all-important growing pig ration segment.   

In the poultry sector, overall feed production is down by 4%. Some additional demand is expected in the ruminant sector, but the extent of spot or top-up contracts will depend heavily on grass growth and field conditions over the coming month. 

OILSEED RAPE 

• Rapeseed markets remain directionless amid conflicting fundamentals 

 This week, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that local farmers would be exempt from a 10% export duty—previously seen as a factor slowing exports. In theory, this should boost Ukrainian rapeseed flows into Europe. However, uncertainty around how the exemption will be implemented continues to delay sales. 

Meanwhile, Canada and Australia have both produced larger-than-expected crops, with current estimates at 20.5 million tonnes and 6.5 million tonnes, respectively. This suggests there will be ample global supply to meet demand this season. The key challenge now lies in logistics—how and where this volume will move, especially in the context of ongoing global tariff complexities. 

In the UK, domestic demand from crushers remains strong, partly influenced by the current import environment. Farmgate prices are once again approaching the £400/t ex-farm level in parts of England. On the production side, new crop planting is progressing well overall, with only limited reports of failures, thanks to generally favourable weather conditions 

FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

A quiet week within the urea market, which is to be expected whilst the trade waits on the latest tender results. One of the potential influences on the latest tender volumes will be on whether China will be involved, but current export quotas wouldn’t indicate this to be likely.

Within the UK, there have been regional variations within urea, but overall pricing remains relatively unchanged. The most notable changes have been some importers pushing their delivery window out into early 2026. This might seem like a great thing for buyers looking to help cash flow, but it does lead to the question of whether the product will arrive on farm in time.

Ammonia has taken quite a step up in pricing and is now at levels not seen since autumn 2023. This presents two possibilities from those producing fertilisers using ammonia; either increase pricing to reflect an increase in cost of production or turn down production if demand continues to be subdued. The latter of the two will not help the current lack of product within the EU and the UK.

Supply chain disruption is still a concern due to targeted attacks on fertiliser production in Russia, with variable reports on impacts to production. Whilst this doesn’t affect UK material, it does interrupt trade flows out of Russia and may cause increased buying of other EU material that is usually destined for the UK.

• UAN

The UAN market is currently stable as buying continues, albeit at a slow pace following the spring terms release. The change in the ammonia price is a watch for anyone that still has material to cover for spring. It’s likely that any moves in ammonium nitrate will cause the same within UAN. We would recommend having the conversation with your Frontier contact regarding options available.

• PK’s

DAP is showing signs of correction in the UK market, which is a surprise given the limited supply options into the country. It is likely, given the limited supply options and high demand elsewhere around the globe, that any weakness may be short term or may not arrive in the UK in enough time for usage to influence UK market values. A major global PK manufacturer has stepped MOP levels up to UK importers, but this is yet to impact on-farm levels. If there were to be any further moves on MOP, this could also affect polysulphate pricing. We would recommend you look at fertiliser systems and start to assess requirements for crop 2026.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at info@frontierag.co.uk for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.

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