As we look ahead to the 2027 growing season, one thing is clear: the fertiliser market has changed. Over the past few months, growers have experienced significant price volatility, while a changing global supply picture and new regulatory developments mean that previous purchasing strategies may no longer be the best fit.

This autumn presents an important opportunity to review both your nutrient management plan and your fertiliser buying strategy for 2027.

A summer of significant price volatility

The period from May through August was a timely reminder of how quickly fertiliser markets can move. Prices came under pressure in early summer as producers competed with imports, before turning sharply higher in August as global supply concerns increased. The speed of this reversal highlights the challenges of timing purchases and how quickly opportunities can disappear as market fundamentals change.

Given these rapid movements, our advice throughout the summer was to buy little and often. Spreading purchases reduced exposure to sudden market changes and proved the most effective way to manage price risk during a period of exceptional volatility.

Why the advice has changed

While buying little and often was the right approach during the summer, the market dynamics we are now seeing for late 2026 and into early 2027 suggest a different strategy is needed.

Our recommendation is that growers should aim to secure at least 75% of their fertiliser requirement by the end of November to ensure product is on farm before Christmas.

There are several reasons behind this change.

Global demand is increasing

European fertiliser imports are running significantly below previous years, with imports into Europe estimated to be 30 to 40% lower year on year. At the same time, fertiliser demand remains strong across Europe.

Producers will naturally look to sell into the highest-value markets. This means the UK is potentially drawing from a smaller pool of available product than in recent seasons.

Buying patterns have shifted

For the first time, many growers chose not to buy new-season fertiliser at the traditional buying points.

Crop confidence, cash flow considerations and uncertainty around markets have all influenced purchasing decisions. As a result, growers who would historically delay purchases may find themselves competing for product alongside a much larger proportion of the market.

If you would normally wait until January or February to buy, it may be worth bringing those decisions forward this year.

Demand could build quickly

Several factors could create sudden demand surges during the autumn and winter months:

• Increasing oilseed rape area as crop confidence improves.

• Greater interest in liquid fertiliser systems and tank installations.

• Weather-driven changes to application plans.

• Grain sales triggering input purchases as growers align buying inputs with selling outputs.

These factors all have the potential to create short-term pressure on supply and logistics.

Supply remains tight

Although demand has been relatively subdued until recently, this has resulted in some European production plants reducing output. Now that demand is beginning to return, supply availability is tighter.

EU Producers have also focused on export opportunities during periods of weak UK demand, while delayed urea vessels continue to create uncertainty in some supply chains.

Add to this the limited number of delivery days available before Christmas, and the value of making early decisions becomes increasingly clear.

CBAM is coming

Another important consideration for 2027 is the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

For fertiliser buyers, several points are worth noting:

• It affects all nitrogen-containing products, including solid and liquid nitrogen, NS, NP and NPK products.

• UK-produced ammonium nitrate is also impacted because the ammonium component is imported.

• Product delivered and on farm before the end of December 2026 will definitely be exempt from the tax. Deliveries in the new year could be exempt but this relies on those products being physically in the UK before the end of the year.

While there has been speculation regarding a delay in CBAM being introduced, the current government position remains that CBAM is scheduled to begin on 1st January 2027.

While the exact cost impact is still being finalised, CBAM introduces another layer of uncertainty that supports the case for forward planning and early purchasing decisions.

Does the agronomy still support a full nitrogen programme?

The simple answer is yes.

Based on current economics, a full nitrogen programme remains justified for most growers.

Using today's Nitram value and a November 2027 wheat value the breakeven ratio continues to support standard nitrogen recommendations in RB209 The Nutrient Management Guide without any adjustment.

In fact, Nitram would need to rise by £45/t+, or wheat values would need to fall by approximately £20/t, before reducing nitrogen rates becomes a serious consideration from an economic perspective.

For most businesses, the focus should therefore be on optimising efficiency rather than cutting rates.

Adopting a variable rate approach remains one of the most effective ways to improve nutrient use efficiency, target investment where it delivers the greatest return, and maximise overall crop performance while maintaining a full nitrogen programme.

Lessons from Harvest 2026

The key messages from Frontier's early harvest reflections remain highly relevant as we plan for 2027.

This season once again highlighted the value of making timely agronomic decisions rather than reacting solely to short-term market movements. Businesses that maintained investment in crop nutrition, while focusing on efficient nutrient use and crop monitoring, were generally best placed to protect yield potential.

As we move into planning for next season, the priority should be developing a robust nutrient management strategy early, understanding crop requirements field by field, and ensuring fertiliser purchasing decisions support those plans rather than constrain them.

Preparing for success in 2027

The fertiliser market has moved from a period where flexibility was the best defence against volatility to one where security of supply is becoming increasingly important.

For many growers, the key actions are:

• Secure at least 75% of fertiliser requirements before Christmas.

• Review nutrient plans now rather than waiting until the New Year.

• Continue to base nitrogen decisions on crop economics rather than market sentiment alone

• Explore variable rate approaches to improve nutrient efficiency.

• Consider the implications of CBAM when planning purchases and deliveries.

• Engage early if considering liquid fertiliser infrastructure investments.

Stay informed

To stay on top of market movements and keep close to our experts’ advice:

• Subscribe to our weekly Frontrunner market report

• Join us at a winter event to explore fertiliser markets, grain markets and nutrient management strategies for 2027. Visit our events page to register for an event near you.