Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the markets with its latest US wheat production estimates. The data showed a marked increase over its previous figures, ahead of the most upbeat pre-report trader estimates, which resulted in a sharp fall in wheat futures.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Russia's appetite for world wheat export market share continues to be the primary bearish market driver. The latest estimates see Russia shipping 5.1 million tonnes of wheat in September and although this is 200,000 tonnes below last month, the first quarter of the season will now see a staggering 14.8 million tonnes shipped. On average, this figure is more than one million tonnes each week. There's also a quest for future sales, made evident by the news of intergovernmental discussions with Egypt for the supply of another one million tonnes of wheat.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Despite UK wheat futures prices falling back from their recent highs earlier this week, weaker sterling is now edging them upwards although current values are only £10/t over the futures contract lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Last week's trade ended quietly with all markets posting small losses at the close. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) was down £0.85/t, Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) lost €1.50/t and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by $0.05/t.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Russia continues to dominate world wheat export trade whilst the US and EU fall further behind, leaving falling prices. Leading analysts revised estimates and put the Russian wheat crop between 91 and 92 million tonnes, with exports for the season between 48.5 and 49.5 million tonnes. 20% or more of that export target has already been achieved during the first two months of the season, with 9.7 million tonnes reportedly shipped by the end of August at record pace.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
With the Russian wheat harvest progressing further than expected, yields are leading more analysts to revise their crop estimates for Russia - the world's leading wheat exporter.
Total production is now seen ranging between 91 and 92 million tonnes, therefore creating potential for a higher record export target of 49.5 million tonnes. The first two months got off to a racing start, with estimates of 9.5 million tonnes shipped during July and August. However, the government has since imposed an official floor price for new wheat tenders and this may result in a slowing of the current pace.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), but despite a reduction in year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn, the absence of any surprising bullish data left futures reacting negatively. World wheat production is now seen at three million tonnes lower than it was in the previous month at 793.37 million tonnes.
Unfortunately there is no Frontrunner podcast this week but it will return as normal from next Friday.
The week started with a sharp rally for wheat futures prices following a weekend of military action between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine seaborne drone attacks on Russian commercial shipping, including a tanker near the Crimean, caused renewed wheat supply fears. Russia is currently shipping between 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat each month, with approximately 70% of this total coming from its Black Sea ports. Any tangible disruption to sea freight will have a positive impact on prices, especially if importers are forced to seek supplies from alternative sources such as the EU or the US.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Wheat futures prices continued to fall this week, dampening any signs of trade activity much like the UK weather is doing for harvest progress. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Black Sea wheat supply, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures fell again on Thursday for the seventh consecutive trading day. This wiped out all the gains made since 17th July when Russia withdrew from the Black Sea export corridor deal with Ukraine. Russia has continued to launch drone strikes on the Ukrainian Black Sea Port of Odesa and River Danube grain loading terminals, Reni and Izmail.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
This year we've seen an elevated amount of storage challenges across the industry, a problem faced by both farmers and professional stores alike.
The extreme weather conditions last harvest meant that most crops went into stores without needing to be dried, with some farmers combining crops at night in a bid to avoid the intense heat and elevate moisture content.
This week, US wheat futures markets rallied to briefly touch their highest level since late February this year in what has been a notably volatile period of trade. On Monday, aggressive fund short covering took prices to their daily trading limit of 60 cents up - the equivalent of a 9% price gain. The primary trigger for the gains was the Russian military attacks on Ukrainian grain loading terminals on the River Danube. This river has proven an effective export route for Ukraine wheat and other grains since the Russian invasion in February last year.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Events unfolding because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict have once again had a major impact on world wheat prices this week. Following months of threats, Russia chose to halt its engagement with the UN-brokered Black Sea wheat export deal on Monday, which previously allowed vessels to safely collect wheat and other grains from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports. Since its inception a year ago, the deal has seen almost 33 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped around the world, helping to supply some of the poorest nations.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
This week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It added weight and area to both US wheat and corn crops. The increasing supply of these crops triggered a wave of selling and futures prices went back down to early June levels.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness. The USDA now estimates that US farmers have planted 94.1 million acres of corn - up two million tonnes on its previous estimate - and that they will be able to harvest 86.3 million acres, which is up 9% on last year. This, combined with its estimated yield, would see the US corn crop at 10 million tonnes higher than the estimate made in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published in June, which was set at 387.75 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing executive, Faye Lee.
The week started with news that the Wagner Group's attempted coup against the Russian government had failed. In addition, Sterling has weakened against the Euro over the past week while it has strengthened against the US dollar.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
From early 2023, speculative funds had built near record short positions in agriculture futures markets. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market alone received over 120,000 contracts which is the equivalent of over 16 million tonnes. This process helped wheat prices decrease to multi-month lows at the end of May, but the current month has seen a price recovery.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
The world's wheat futures fell to new multi-month lows last week, with London wheat dropping to its lowest value since mid-January 2022. However, a combination of weather-related factors and concerns for the security of supplies from the Black Sea helped deliver five consecutive days of positive closing prices and an overall gain of around 9% from this low.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
For most of this week wheat values have remained on the defensive with London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Marche A Terme International de France (MATIF) all falling to their lowest point in over a year. Without much bullish news traders continued to add to their short positions after the small bounce in prices last week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia's agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated 'good/excellent' and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six points ahead of the five-year average.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world's 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
