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Frontrunner - 23rd May 2024

Further cuts to Russian 2024 wheat production estimates and concerns for Ukraine output have reignited speculative buying interest, sending futures markets higher and setting new recent highs. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat rose to its highest since August 2023 and French wheat futures to their highest since February 2023, whilst London futures struggled to match the pace as sterling continued to appreciate versus the euro.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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  531 Hits

Frontrunner - 9th May 2024

After a sluggish start to the year, wheat prices experienced a remarkable turnaround in the last days of April, surging to multi-month highs. Speculative funds, which had previously driven prices lower by building record short positions in wheat futures markets, reversed their stance.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by Marketing Assistant, Becca Russell. 

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  719 Hits

Frontrunner - 25th April 2024

In an eventful week for the wheat markets, speculative fund short-covering spurred a sharp ascent, propelling London November 2024 wheat futures past £200/t - their highest level since 10th January. Geopolitical tensions and weather fluctuations initially fuelled the surge, although values retraced mid-week. Escalating missile attacks on the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa by Russia over the weekend, coupled with the US government's proposed $61 billion support for Ukraine's war efforts against Russia, prompted speculative funds to reduce their near-record short positions in global agricultural futures markets.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope. 

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  775 Hits

Frontrunner - 4th April 2024

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presented a bullish set of data before the Easter weekend and sent futures prices higher.

On 1st March, US wheat stocks were marginally higher than average expectations at 1.087 billion bushels versus 1.044 billion bushels. This was also up on last year which was 0.941 billion bushels.

The surprises for the market didn't come from the stocks though, rather it was the lower-than-expected 2024 US corn and US winter wheat prospective planted areas. Winter wheat is seen down to 34.135 million acres which is at the bottom end of trade guesses - these ranged from 34 million acres to 38.37 million acres and notably the Ag Forum estimated 34.425 million acres. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.

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  959 Hits

Frontrunner - 21st March 2024

Speculative fund short covering has driven wheat futures higher in recent days, led primarily by gains in the Paris market. The May 2024 contract breached €200/t on Tuesday which was the market's highest level since 27th February 2024.

The funds had built record short positions in the Paris wheat market but improved physical wheat demand, Black Sea supply concerns and EU political moves have been the catalysts to trigger a need to reduce the exposure to potentially higher prices.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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  960 Hits

Frontrunner - 14th March 2024

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) late last Friday afternoon, trimming end stocks for both world wheat and corn which helped to lift prices.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.

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  1183 Hits

Frontrunner - 7th March 2024

Earlier this week, both US and French wheat futures fell sharply again and struck new contract lows.

Wheat futures have nearly lost half their value from their peak in May 2022 and are under pressure from abundant world wheat supplies and cheaper export sales from Black Sea origins. Offers are reported to have fallen below $200/t FOB – the sterling equivalent of £157/t for milling quality on a vessel at a Black Sea port. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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  1069 Hits

Frontrunner - 15th February 2024

Late last Wednesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and there were very few changes from January's numbers. Year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn will be less than estimated in the previous month's report, but the cuts made were insufficient to halt the slide in wheat prices seen since the beginning of 2024.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope. 

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  1329 Hits

Frontrunner - 8th February 2024

By midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline.

Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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  1376 Hits

Frontrunner - 25th January 2024

This week UK wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows despite support for US and European wheat markets.

UK feed wheat prices remain around £10/t too expensive to compete for export market share. Traditional UK feed wheat EU export destinations, such as Spain and Ireland, continue to find cheaper offers from other origins and there is no shortage of sales opportunity should prices become competitive.

The EU has so far imported 5.4 million tonnes of wheat - 3.65 million tonnes of that has come from Ukraine. UK exports remain stagnant at less than 130,000 tonnes shipped for the first half of the season, signalling a potential carryover of over three million tonnes of stock into next season.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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  1327 Hits

Frontrunner - 18th January 2024

Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE) for 2024, presenting a bearish set of data for both wheat and corn. Subsequently, futures wheat prices dropped sharply and both the Paris and London markets established new contract lows.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.

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  1468 Hits

Frontrunner - 11th January 2024

This week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins.

Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $265 FOB. There was just one French offer which, including freight, was about $17/t too expensive to compete with the Russian sales, highlighting the competitive challenges in world trade.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

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  1397 Hits

Frontrunner - 5th January 2024

The new year hasn't been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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  1475 Hits

Frontrunner - 22nd December 2023

World wheat futures markets are drifting into the festive period, with little change in value but trading above the season's lows.

There has been no shortage of international trade, however, with Saudi Arabia buying 1.3 million tonnes and Egypt securing 480,000 tonnes in the week before Christmas.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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  1470 Hits

Frontrunner - 15th December 2023

This week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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  1509 Hits

Frontrunner - 8th December 2023

This week, China - the world's largest wheat producing country - has put pen to paper with US wheat exporters. Published sales data showed US traders selling around one million tonnes of US wheat to the country and in the process triggered a sharp price rally. As a result of this, the short covering launched Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures 15% higher from the previous week's multi-month lows.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.

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  1538 Hits

Frontrunner - 1st December 2023

Earlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news.

Up to Sunday 26th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.

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  1486 Hits

Frontrunner - 24th November 2023

World wheat markets have come under further selling pressure this week, with little to no fresh bullish features to be seen.

Whilst demand slows, an improvement in the weather and crop ratings has encouraged speculative funds to build on their short positions in agricultural markets.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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  1495 Hits

Frontrunner - 17th November 2023

Last week's price spike because of Black Sea supply concerns and confusion over a cap on Russian grain exports seems a distant memory.

The plentiful nearby physical wheat supply is again weighing on markets and whilst Russian exports continue to power ahead, the EU and US are left trailing in its wake. Russia is expected to have its poorest performing month in November since the start of the season, but despite that the country is likely to ship about four million tonnes of wheat as it continues to dominate world trade.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Luncinda Redgate.

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  1515 Hits

Frontrunner - 10th November 2023

This week has brought more volatility across the US and European wheat markets.

On 3rd November, London International LIFFE (Financial Futures and Options Exchange) closed at £200.50/t. Since then, London futures traded in a £7.05/t range between £205.00/t and £197.95/t before closing last night at £201.05/t.

MATIF (Marché à Terme International de France) followed a similar pattern, closing at €240.00/t on 3rd November. Futures traded in a €8.25/t range between €245.00/t and €236.75/t before closing at €239.75/t last night.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

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  1498 Hits

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