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Frontrunner - 10th September 2021

FranceAgriMer updated its French wheat crop data this week with changes that highlighted the poor quality of its crop. Domestic and export milling specifications demand that grain specific weight meets at least 76kgs but only 30% of the crop is estimated to have reached that standard. Such poor French wheat crop quality is unusual; last season over 98% of France's crop met the minimum 76kgs standard. The Hagberg falling number (HFN) is also an issue, with only 67% meeting the minimum 220 specification.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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Frontrunner - 3rd September 2021

Earlier this week Statistics Canada (StatsCan) updated its country's wheat crop estimate, now seeing the crop falling to 22.95 million tonnes. This compares to 35.18 million tonnes last year and, if realised, will be Canada's smallest crop for 14 years. Persistent excessive heat and dryness for much of the growing season has slashed yield potential for Canada; one of the world's major wheat exporters.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 27th August 2021

In contrast to UK feed wheat futures, the Paris futures market has a milling standard specification. Under normal circumstances traders may elect to deliver physical wheat against their futures sales at harvest or buy futures as a hedge against milling wheat export sales they make.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 20th August 2021

In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the United States Department of Agriculture surprised markets last week with larger-than-expected production cuts for some of the world's major wheat and corn producers. After the report was released, strong wheat futures surged a further 5% to multi-year highs. However, fresh selling and speculators banking profits gathered pace throughout this week and wiped out the short-lived spike in prices.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell. 

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Frontrunner - 13th August 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday and presented some bullish surprises. Futures markets reacted with notable gains and US, Paris and London wheat futures all rallied to set new contract highs.

Having taken an overly conservative view of potential crop losses in its July estimates, this time the USDA made some aggressive production cuts. This was particularly the case for Russia where the USDA estimates the wheat crop will be as low as 72.5 million tonnes. This compares with its July estimate of 85 million tonnes.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee. 

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Frontrunner - 6th August 2021

This week, the UK's oilseed rape harvest has continued making progress further up the country where weather has allowed. As mentioned last week, yield reports seem to be improving as harvest makes its way north. An increase on the widely estimated 3.3t/ha may well be seen before harvest with numbers as high as 5t/ha being reported in the Lincolnshire area.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 23rd July 2021

Persistent hot and dry weather continues to damage spring wheat crops in the northern US states, particularly North Dakota and Minnesota. Weekly crop condition ratings slipped to 11% rated 'good to excellent', which is just one point above the worst condition rating on record in 1988. The area rated 'poor to very poor' increased on the week to 63% from 55% and this data propelled US spring wheat futures to new contract highs - their highest level since November 2012.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 16th July 2021

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rallied sharply this week, gaining 10% in value from last week's three-month lows.

Persistent hot and dry weather conditions across US and Canadian spring wheat production areas look set to continue into next week and will prove further damaging for yield potential. Minneapolis spring wheat futures rose above $9/bu which is their highest since December 2012. The fast rise in spring wheat futures prices has significantly extended its premium to CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures above $2.20. In early April it was little more than 30 cents.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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Frontrunner - 2nd July 2021

In recent weeks, analysts have been increasing their wheat production estimates for major exporters Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. This has left a negative tone and seen world prices continually ease during June. This change has been highlighted by London wheat futures which lost £14/t during the month. However, the primary negative price driver has been expectations for a notably higher 2021-22 US corn crop than previously anticipated.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast by pressing 'play' or downloading the track from within the report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

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Frontrunner - 25th June 2021

Wheat futures have slipped lower this week. London November 2021 wheat futures closed below £170/t for the first time since mid-April. Grain markets have been pressured by wetter and cooler weather across the primary US corn producing states, which are conditions that are ideal for the pollination period and signal improved yield potential.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 18th June 2021

Wheat prices have fallen sharply in recent days and London wheat futures have lost more than £10/t from their highs early last week. The fall has been driven by the US agriculture market, particularly by US corn, which has lost over 12% of its value this week.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Cath.

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Frontrunner - 4th June 2021

Price volatility for the world's wheat markets continued this week. After initially making a sharp recovery following last week's slump, ultimately wheat markets failed to hold onto their gains. This was highlighted by London wheat futures, which increased by £8/t at their peak midweek before subsequently losing two-thirds of that rally.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 28th May 2021

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and corn futures have been particularly volatile this week. Spring planting has advanced at a fast rate which has encouraged notable long liquidation from market speculators. Spring wheat planting reached 94% complete, which is well ahead of the 85% average for this time of year. Meanwhile, corn planting advanced to 90% complete compared with the 80% average.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by key account manager, Zoe Andrew.

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Frontrunner - 14th May 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, updating its current season balance sheets and its first estimates for next season. The markets were particularly keen to see how the USDA would assess corn production prospects for Brazil.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 7th May 2021

Persistent dryness across many of the primary corn growing regions of Brazil is continuing to stress late drilled corn crops and impact their yield potential. In April, the estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the Brazilian corn crop was at 109 million tonnes, but analysts see the lack of rain taking at least nine million tonnes from that crop potential.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Cath. 

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Frontrunner - 30th April 2021

Wheat and corn futures continued to drive higher earlier this week, setting new contract highs. US markets reached their highest level for eight years and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures pushed above $7/bu – a level double their contract low. New crop London wheat futures at their highest had risen over this month by an impressive £35/t. Higher European futures markets reflected concerns for both winter and spring crops following the prolonged period of dry weather and, in places, record low April temperatures impacting on most of northern Europe.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by key account manager, Zoe Andrew.

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Frontrunner - 23rd April 2021

Persistent cold dry weather affecting much of the US and Western Europe coupled with ongoing Chinese demand drove wheat and corn markets sharply higher this week. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have gained over 8% since last Friday's close and are trading over $7 per bushel, bringing them to their highest level since May 2014. European new crop wheat futures have been equally impressive, setting new contract highs. London November 2021 wheat futures are now £26/t above their end of March low.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader Ollie Wilson.

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Frontrunner - 9th April 2021

European wheat markets dropped to their lowest so far this year following the Easter break. A lack of fresh demand and generally favourable Northern Hemisphere winter wheat conditions were highlighted as the reasons for the continued downward trend which has been in place since early March. However, US wheat futures rallied sharply on Thursday, taking Paris and London wheat futures higher too. Increasing concerns for dry soil conditions ahead of spring wheat drilling in the north of the US and Canada has been the catalyst for change in market sentiment.

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Frontrunner - 1st April 2021

On Wednesday 31ST March, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its quarterly US stocks and acreage report. It contained bullish data for corn that triggered a sharp price rally for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, sending them to new contract highs; the highest level seen since 2013. Despite the report having bearish wheat data, wheat futures followed corn futures higher, ending the recent slide in prices that had dropped to a three-month low prior to the report.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Cath.

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Frontrunner - 26th March 2021

World wheat markets have fallen again this week and have now effectively lost all the price gains they made in 2021. London wheat futures fell to their lowest level since the 17th December. In January, fears that Russia would close the door on wheat exports saw Black Sea export prices soar to £300/t free on board (FOB), before including freight costs. Buyers are now harder to find and traders' offers were reported to have fallen to $250/t searching for demand. Prices have fallen sharply despite strong exports to date for the world's major producers. Weekly wheat export sales for the US were 344,000 tonnes, taking the season's total sold to almost 93% of the surplus estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is just ahead of average at this time of year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by key account manager, Zoe Andrew.

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