Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), but despite a reduction in year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn, the absence of any surprising bullish data left futures reacting negatively. World wheat production is now seen at three million tonnes lower than it was in the previous month at 793.37 million tonnes.

Unfortunately there is no Frontrunner podcast this week but it will return as normal from next Friday. 

The week started with a sharp rally for wheat futures prices following a weekend of military action between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine seaborne drone attacks on Russian commercial shipping, including a tanker near the Crimean, caused renewed wheat supply fears. Russia is currently shipping between 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat each month, with approximately 70% of this total coming from its Black Sea ports. Any tangible disruption to sea freight will have a positive impact on prices, especially if importers are forced to seek supplies from alternative sources such as the EU or the US.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

This week, US wheat futures markets rallied to briefly touch their highest level since late February this year in what has been a notably volatile period of trade. On Monday, aggressive fund short covering took prices to their daily trading limit of 60 cents up - the equivalent of a 9% price gain. The primary trigger for the gains was the Russian military attacks on Ukrainian grain loading terminals on the River Danube. This river has proven an effective export route for Ukraine wheat and other grains since the Russian invasion in February last year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

Events unfolding because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict have once again had a major impact on world wheat prices this week. Following months of threats, Russia chose to halt its engagement with the UN-brokered Black Sea wheat export deal on Monday, which previously allowed vessels to safely collect wheat and other grains from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports. Since its inception a year ago, the deal has seen almost 33 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped around the world, helping to supply some of the poorest nations.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness. The USDA now estimates that US farmers have planted 94.1 million acres of corn - up two million tonnes on its previous estimate - and that they will be able to harvest 86.3 million acres, which is up 9% on last year. This, combined with its estimated yield, would see the US corn crop at 10 million tonnes higher than the estimate made in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published in June, which was set at 387.75 million tonnes.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing executive, Faye Lee.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published revisions to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report late last Friday afternoon. There was a notable jump in its world wheat production estimate, which it now sees rising to over 800 million tonnes. This is 10.4 million tonnes up on last month and 12 million tonnes up on last year. It came as a surprise to many that the USDA did not cut production estimates for areas where adverse weather may reduce output potential. For example, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently cut its country's production potential by a third on last year's figure to 26.2 million tonnes due to the expected negative impact on yields from the El Nino weather.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

World wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia's agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17^th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated 'good/excellent' and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six points ahead of the five-year average.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world's 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

World wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

This week, Canada's national statistical office, Statistics Canada (StatsCan), published its first look at 2023 Canadian crop potential and farmer planting intentions. Canadian farmers are set to increase their wheat area by around 6% on last year, to 27 million acres. If realised, this would be the largest drilled area since 2001. This potential boost to global supplies exceeded trade expectations and added to the market price negativity.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

Wheat futures markets rose sharply earlier this week, with traders concerned over the flow of grain from the Black Sea. Prices increased by around 6%, with Russia casting doubt on its renewal of the Ukraine Black Sea export deal next month. Subject to the terms of the deal, vessels entering or exiting the Ukrainian Black Sea must be inspected. However, Russia has blocked inspections as vessels passed through Turkish waters for a second day, which has prompted Ukraine to say that the export deal is at danger of collapse. Russia warned that prospects of an extension to the deal will be low once its previous 60-day extension ends in the middle of May unless certain criteria are met in respect to Western sanctions. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

London wheat futures fell lower again this week, with old crop prices falling close to multi-month lows, the lowest since the 22^nd of March. Selling was encouraged by lower world markets and what is likely to be a significant UK carry over stock from this season into next.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

Wheat futures markets continued to rally until mid-week, making impressive gains from last week's multi-month lows. The London wheat market added £19/t which encouraged further farmer selling, but with limited interest in physical wheat buying, domestic prices subsequently dropped again towards the end of the week.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by Lucinda Redgate. 

Last weekend the Black Sea export corridor deal was renewed. Despite demands from Ukraine for a minimum extension of 120 days, all parties ultimately agreed to Russia's proposal of a maximum of 60 days. Russia said an extension of the deal beyond mid-May will depend on the removal of some western sanctions.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

European and US wheat futures prices have continued to fall this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell to their lowest since the end of September 2021 and Paris wheat futures to their lowest since March 2022. Futures prices have come under pressure as a result of Russia capturing an increasingly large share of the global export market.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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Benchmark global wheat prices lifted 6% on Monday in a knee-jerk reaction to news from the weekend that Putin was withdrawing from the safe Black Sea corridor agreement. Consequently, insurers refused to grant fresh cover for vessels that were returning to Ukraine which caused concern for the 22 boats anchored in Ukrainian ports waiting to be loaded - a further 101 are awaiting inspection. London futures rallied from £12 to a high of £293, which ignited UK farmers to market large volumes at prices not seen for a month.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell. 

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This week, the world's wheat futures markets have recovered all the losses they took last Friday. Prices then fell sharply due to Russia and Ukraine signing a deal with Turkey and the United Nations (UN). The deal set out to ship trapped wheat and other grains and oilseeds from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.  However, the market is now reacting to the reality that shipping through these ports will, for some time, be a slow process as there are challenges in securing the resources needed to resume operations whilst the hostilities with Russia continue.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) adopted a change to its method for wheat import purchases this week, entering into direct talks with exporters in preference to where it usually holds a general purchase tender. Egypt bought around 444,000 tonnes, adding to the 815,000 tonnes it bought last week, split between Russia with 214,000 tonnes, France with 170,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes from Romania. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) made its largest single wheat purchase for over 13 years this week, buying 815,000 tonnes for shipment during August, September and October. Last weekend, the Egyptian Minister for Supply and Internal Trade said his country needed to import ten million tonnes of wheat over the next six months while having secured 3.9 million tonnes from local farmers and having wheat reserves sufficient for almost six months.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is ready by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

Problems accessing this blog? Click here to go to our main blog feed where you'll be able to see our latest post at the top.

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report but it made few changes to the previous month's wheat and corn world balance sheets. However, markets rallied from the low levels of trading before the report, where traders had squared long positions in case of bearish data.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.