Russian wheat exporters regained their competitive edge this week, securing significant sales to Egypt for delivery early January. Egypt bought 465,000 tonnes at just over $232 per tonne including freight and, although the two cheapest cargoes were from Ukraine, all the remaining 345,000 tonnes were of Russian origin.
Russia was clearly determined to maintain their status as the leading supplier to Egypt, after having lost out to France in the previous week's tender.
Concern over new crop wheat planting has driven prices this week. With an estimated winter wheat planted area of just 50%, compared to 95% this time last year, new crop wheat values moved up £7/mt.
Old crop wheat values have followed the new crop as farm selling remains light and domestic consumers still need plenty of cover for the balance of the crop year.
Brexit uncertainty and winter drilling delays in the UK continue to add volatility to wheat markets. Last weekend's Brexit extension significantly widened the window for tariff-free exports to the EU, which was seen by some as a bullish flag.
In addition to this, the persistent deluge of rainfall continues to delay the drilling campaign with progress varying from one location and land-type to the next, so farmer selling of 2019 and 2020 crop has naturally slowed. As a result, London futures traded to £148.55 midweek which, along with new crop futures, was their highest level since mid-August.
WHEAT Markets treading water Wheat markets have moved sideways this week, lacking any fresh news. They are supported by the strong EU and Black Sea export pace, as well as mixed fortunes for winter drilling. By the end of last week, this season's EU wheat exports had exceeded 8 million tonnes, compared to 5.7 million tonnes this time last year...
WHEAT Adverse weather supports UK prices The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) published their first provisional UK wheat supply and demand estimates for the 2019/20 season this week. The balance sheet contains the first production estimate from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affair (DEFRA) – 16.283 million ton...
WHEAT USDA dampens grain markets The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published their October world supply and demand estimates on Thursday. Trader focus was on an expected cut in US corn yields given the delayed planting, plant maturity and harvest progress. However, the USDA actually increased yield albeit marginally on the previous...
WHEAT Exports This week, UK wheat markets have continued to focus on export trade flows in the south and east coast ports, with the north and west seeing limited fresh consumer demand. The port pull remains strong, with lorry freight significantly under pressure as vessels continue to arrive for wheat (and barley) ahead of the potential Brext deadl...
WHEAT Wheat prices continue to rise Demand for wheat supplies to UK ports saw prices rally to a near six-week high on Friday. This performance was matched by French wheat futures which were reacting to the fast EU export pace and a continued flow of tenders held by the world's major importers. Helped by continued euro weakness which hit a 28-month ...
WHEAT Big crops get bigger? There is an old saying that 'big crops get bigger' and it seems that it is true. This week well respected analyst, Strategie Grains' September report increased the size of the 2019 EU-28 wheat crop again to 144.5 million tonnes. This is 1.6 million tonnes up on the estimate they made last month and a hefty 17.6 million t...
WHEAT Latest USDA World Supply and Demand Report review The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published their September World Supply and Demand estimates on Thursday; it came with minor changes from the previous report and therefore no surprises. There were small cuts in world production for both wheat and corn, but increases in carry-...
WHEAT UK wheat prices bounceLondon wheat futures, together with French wheat futures, fell to new contract lows early this week under the weight of high yielding crops. However, the UK market subsequently enjoyed a £5 per tonne rally and moved higher by an unexpected wave of short covering. London futures were technically oversold and UK wheat was ...
WHEAT UK wheat harvest progress As the UK wheat harvest progressed rapidly this week and pushed through 80% complete, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimated production might breach 16 million tonnes, the highest since 2015. They report yields of 8.8 to 9 tonnes per hectare which is 6 to 8% above average. However, with f...
WHEAT Wheat prices continue to fall US, French and UK wheat futures fell further this week, with all markets hitting new contract lows. Following numerous spells of inclement weather in recent weeks hampering the wheat harvest, much of the UK has been more settled in recent days. This has allowed combining to progress rapidly and, fortunately, nota...
WHEAT Heavy UK wheat crop weighs on prices London wheat futures fell to new contract lows this week as our market tried to find demand. Yields for most of the UK wheat crops harvested so far have been significantly higher than most expected, above the five year average, which points towards a sizeable exportable surplus. Recent sterling weakness ha...
WHEAT A good start to harvest Dry weather for most of the week led to good harvest progress being made into quality wheat in the southern and eastern counties. However, this has now stalled as low pressure weather systems take charge for the weekend. Data is limited at this point but high yields are a significant feature so far in this season's cam...
WHEAT UK reliant on export bids This week's market movements clearly highlighted the importance of exports for supporting new crop wheat prices. Huge devaluation of the pound this week saw the currency trade at a two-year low against the US dollar and euro, pushing the UK towards export parity. The result of this meant futures and physical prices r...
WHEAT Improving French wheat crop prospects Record breaking high temperatures during June were thought to have been damaging for wheat crops across Europe and some analysts have now cut their estimates accordingly. Leading European analysts, Strategie Grains, reported in July that they cut the 2019 EU-28 soft wheat harvest by 2.2 million tonnes to ...
WHEAT · Harvestpressure caps prices The Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest is well underway withFrance now as far as 50% complete; poor demand remains a theme. As a result,European markets traded steadily lower as the week progressed, with LIFFENovember futures losing almost £1/t per day. The week began...
WHEAT Expectations for a reduced Russian wheat crop gather momentum Upbeat crop estimates made earlier this year by many analysts estimated that the global wheat power-house, Russia would produce up to 85 million tonnes of wheat this coming harvest, adding bearish weight to markets. However, prolonged dry weather and heat during the spring and earl...
WHEAT Market prices Markets have fallen considerably this week with most business concluded for old crop wheat. However, supplies continued to come forward, knocking farm gate prices by £4 to £6/t for old crop during the week. New crop markets are solely focussed on weather and with parts of the European harvest now underway, eyes will turn to the ...
