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Frontrunner - 3rd November 2023

It has been a relatively quiet trade week, with a lot of Europe out of the market for All Saints Day on Wednesday. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) remained open, but it was very quiet.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.

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Considerations for late drilling in wet conditions

During the recent visit from Storm Babet, exceptional levels of rainfall fell in a short period and saturated a lot of land in many parts of the UK. The concern now – particularly with more rain on the way – is the interruption caused to drilling progress, with some fields already destined for spring cropping. Crops drilled more recently have also been affected by waterlogging and significant runoff, which causes ruts and the loss of seed.

If you've found you're experiencing some of these issues in the aftermath of such severe rainfall, you're probably wondering what the best course of action is. Depending on your situation, there are a few options that could still mean you're able to get a crop in the ground and off to a good start. 

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Frontrunner - 27th October 2023

European wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying. Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition. Whilst analysts say there haven't yet been any Chinese vessels to collect recently bought French wheat for the week ending 22nd October, the EU still managed to ship 520,000 of wheat. Cumulative shipments have reached 9.334 million tonnes which compares to the 11.984 million tonnes shipped this time last year - although data is not complete.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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Frontrunner - 20th October 2023

World wheat futures markets have been choppy this week, but have edged forward and recovered from the lows seen at the end of last month.

Speculative funds holding significant short positions have taken some cover because of the uncertainty around increasing tensions in the Middle East, as well as the rise in other commodity prices such as crude oil. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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Using pre-emergence herbicides in wet conditions

The current wet conditions mean slow progress for cereal drilling, with some areas of the UK more severely affected than others. Naturally, such delays are having a subsequent impact on pre-emergence herbicide plans and timings.

The wet weather may mean you're unable to travel on fields, or that your seedbeds cannot receive a herbicide treatment. Even if you can get crops in the ground, imminent rain reduces the chance of applying pre-emergence herbicides within 48 hours of drilling - the optimum timing for grassweed control. 

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The future of oat weed control

This autumn, oat growers across the UK face new crop management considerations following the news that the pre-emergence herbicide, Liberator (flufenacet + diflufenican), can no longer be used on the crop.

The change comes after oats were newly categorised as a 'major crop' by the Chemicals Regulation Division (CRD), meaning all Extensions of Authorisation for Minor Uses (EAMUs) have now been revoked. This leaves growers with no residual herbicide options apart from Sempra XL, though this can only be used on oat crops which are being grown for seed.

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Frontrunner - 13th October 2023

Wheat futures markets came under pressure again this week, extending recent losses under the weight of fresh export sales from Russia. .

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

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Frontrunner - 6th October 2023

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the markets with its latest US wheat production estimates. The data showed a marked increase over its previous figures, ahead of the most upbeat pre-report trader estimates, which resulted in a sharp fall in wheat futures.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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Frontrunner - 29th September 2023

Russia's appetite for world wheat export market share continues to be the primary bearish market driver. The latest estimates see Russia shipping 5.1 million tonnes of wheat in September and although this is 200,000 tonnes below last month, the first quarter of the season will now see a staggering 14.8 million tonnes shipped. On average, this figure is more than one million tonnes each week. There's also a quest for future sales, made evident by the news of intergovernmental discussions with Egypt for the supply of another one million tonnes of wheat. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 22nd September 2023

Despite UK wheat futures prices falling back from their recent highs earlier this week, weaker sterling is now edging them upwards although current values are only £10/t over the futures contract lows.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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Take the chance to boost your forage stocks this autumn

With the relentlessly wet harvest at an end for most - or very nearly at an end - thoughts have already turned towards new season crop establishment.

This time last year, following the very dry summer, many grappled with poor conditions for sowing grass and forage and as a result quite a lot of seed remained in the shed. Our colleague, Dave Harris, did a great blog earlier this year highlighting the value in reseeding grassland and investing into new leys.

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Frontrunner - 15th September 2023

Last week's trade ended quietly with all markets posting small losses at the close. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) was down £0.85/t, Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) lost €1.50/t and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by $0.05/t.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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What's all this talk about winter cover crops?

Some of you will be familiar with the use of winter cover crops and may drill them already, but for those of you still with bare land or contemplating them for the first time, there is still an opportunity to bring them into the rotation. With the recent hotter temperatures helping many areas to retain warm soils, conditions are favourable for drilling too, meaning cover could soon be bringing a host of benefits to your farm.

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Frontrunner - 8th September 2023

Russia continues to dominate world wheat export trade whilst the US and EU fall further behind, leaving falling prices. Leading analysts revised estimates and put the Russian wheat crop between 91 and 92 million tonnes, with exports for the season between 48.5 and 49.5 million tonnes. 20% or more of that export target has already been achieved during the first two months of the season, with 9.7 million tonnes reportedly shipped by the end of August at record pace.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.

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Frontrunner - 1st September 2023

With the Russian wheat harvest progressing further than expected, yields are leading more analysts to revise their crop estimates for Russia - the world's leading wheat exporter.

Total production is now seen ranging between 91 and 92 million tonnes, therefore creating potential for a higher record export target of 49.5 million tonnes. The first two months got off to a racing start, with estimates of 9.5 million tonnes shipped during July and August. However, the government has since imposed an official floor price for new wheat tenders and this may result in a slowing of the current pace. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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Frontrunner - 25th August 2023

Many UK farmers crossed the finish line this week, bringing a welcome end to one of the most challenging harvests for over a decade. Continued periods of rain delayed combining – a complete contrast to last year's harvest where prolonged dryness allowed for the earliest and quickest harvest since 1976.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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Frontrunner - 18th August 2023

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), but despite a reduction in year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn, the absence of any surprising bullish data left futures reacting negatively. World wheat production is now seen at three million tonnes lower than it was in the previous month at 793.37 million tonnes.

Unfortunately there is no Frontrunner podcast this week but it will return as normal from next Friday. 

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Minimise the impact of CSFB by getting oilseed rape off to the best start

Despite recent challenges, oilseed rape (OSR) remains a profitable break crop which can also aid grassweed control in your rotation. Of course, success is dependent on good establishment, which in turn relies on strong attention to detail.

Although recent weather patterns may have presented some difficulties for other combinable crops during the harvest period, there is a silver lining in that the increased soil moisture will aid seedbed preparation and drilling. 

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Frontrunner - 11th August 2023

The week started with a sharp rally for wheat futures prices following a weekend of military action between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine seaborne drone attacks on Russian commercial shipping, including a tanker near the Crimean, caused renewed wheat supply fears. Russia is currently shipping between 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat each month, with approximately 70% of this total coming from its Black Sea ports. Any tangible disruption to sea freight will have a positive impact on prices, especially if importers are forced to seek supplies from alternative sources such as the EU or the US.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

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Frontrunner - 4th August 2023

Wheat futures prices continued to fall this week, dampening any signs of trade activity much like the UK weather is doing for harvest progress. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Black Sea wheat supply, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures fell again on Thursday for the seventh consecutive trading day. This wiped out all the gains made since 17th July when Russia withdrew from the Black Sea export corridor deal with Ukraine. Russia has continued to launch drone strikes on the Ukrainian Black Sea Port of Odesa and River Danube grain loading terminals, Reni and Izmail.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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